Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

PUNTING NEMO


Ji

Recommended Posts

I'll bet there will be a surprise with this somewhere.  Whether that's DC, Balt, ne Maryland, whether it's front end, back side, I don't know, but i'll bet it happens.

 

I'm out, so don't think this is just some weenie post.

If by surprise you mean 2" then I think you are right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'll bet there will be a surprise with this somewhere.  Whether that's DC, Balt, ne Maryland, whether it's front end, back side, I don't know, but i'll bet it happens.

 

I'm out, so don't think this is just some weenie post.

Cant see it happening on the front end. There is a slight chance on the back-end with wrap-around, but  that works out like once every 20 years. I got 3 inches from that April 97 storm...so maybe its time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

if they're dumb enough to hug the nam they deserve it.

To be fair to them, they have had the euro all along, then for a time had the GGEM, NAM, and GFS for a run or two advertising 2 ft plus for their area.  Now the GGEM and GFS has backed off significantly to more of a typical 12-18" type storm.  They still have the euro and NAM and of course are hugging them.  Its not like they have alwayws only had the NAM, and even now they still have the euro for another 50 minutes at least... I can see how yesterday when all guidance was trending towards a massive snow and the euro had been rock solid with that solution for several runs, that they bought in and now its hard to let it go.  Yes in the end they will get a foot or more and should be happy but it still hurts to have a historic event right in front of you then have it kind of slip away at the last minute.  Rooting against them just because we are not getting snow seems kinda petty to me.  I root for NYC and Boston to miss a storm if it means they miss it to the south or the storm cuts further west thus we get snow here...but I have never been interested in rooting for a storm to go OTS and miss everyone just because I am not getting snow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm assuming it is warm...How cold do we need 950?...can we get snow at +1?

we got an inch of snow the other day from those convective snowshowers that came across northern MD with the front with temps around 37 degrees.  BUt it was snowing at a crazy rate, golf ball size flakes and such so...I guess it depends how hard it is snowing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm assuming it is warm...How cold do we need 950?...can we get snow at +1?

 

That's usually about the cut off but you can get mixed snow and rain up to 3C if the layer is shallow enough. Above 3C it's almost always rain.   The other models mostly looked too warm except back towards FDK and points west at onset.   Unless we get backside action,  I'm not much interested in this storm for us.  Course I could always be wrong along with the GFS and NAM soundings. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Need to know the 950mb temp to know. 850 won't help you,  the surface will some but the real heat early is at 950 mb or so. 

even the 850s arent good for DC and SE. we do get a lot more precip but still a sharp cutoff across the area.. living on the edge is always an issue.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

we got an inch of snow the other day from those convective snowshowers that came across northern MD with the front with temps around 37 degrees.  BUt it was snowing at a crazy rate, golf ball size flakes and such so...I guess it depends how hard it is snowing. 

 

yeah...but it was probably cold from 975 up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the euro rakes us..how much snow at the beginning if any?

 

FRI 06Z 08-FEB   1.6    -2.5    1022      83      82    0.01     559     542    FRI 12Z 08-FEB   3.2    -0.9    1016      98      95    0.27     556     543    FRI 18Z 08-FEB   4.2     0.5    1010      95      96    0.37     552     544    SAT 00Z 09-FEB   3.2    -2.5    1009      96      53    0.04     544     536 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...