stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, NYC and BOS are gonna get brutalized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yup...9z plumes are better for Baltimore (DC still not up). Mean is 0.21" snow, but of course, that is biased by outliers (high and low). Here's the link if people want to look: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html I'm still naturally suspicious of wraparound. It's not impossible, but it's pretty rare and busts often. That said, places farther south from SNE getting good snow (i.e., NYC) is a better sign of us getting pity flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yup...9z plumes are better for Baltimore (DC still not up). Mean is 0.21" snow, but of course, that is biased by outliers (high and low). Here's the link if people want to look: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html I'm still naturally suspicious of wraparound. It's not impossible, but it's pretty rare and busts often. That said, places farther south from SNE getting good snow (i.e., NYC) is a better sign of us getting pity flakes. IE why I think some flakes are possible. I mean I don't know about measurable, but good to see a trend for the better for anyone who hasn't punted (my man WWxluvr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not gonna lie, this one stings. Revenge of 09/10. It happens. We've got to concentrate on next week. Wes thinks the pattern is favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wrap around is an urban myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not gonna lie, this one stings. Revenge of 09/10. It happens. We've got to concentrate on next week. Wes thinks the pattern is favorable. but this is the 3rd or 4th time for that, Randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, NYC and BOS are gonna get brutalized. This is the one freak NAM run that gets NYC all super-excited, only to have the GFS and Euro crush them in a couple of hours. Requisite mid-atlantic analysis: boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wrap around is an urban myth. this possibility is starting to remind me of 4/1/97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 but this is the 3rd or 4th time for that, Randy True that. I'm just trying to rationalize and take the sting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 this possibility is starting to remind me of 4/1/97 Refresh my memory mitch. One of our few success stories for it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The NAM love going on in the NE forum is sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I hope so but it's hard to say at this point. Punting it is foolish though. The only difference with 6z is it doesn't leave any ul energy behind next week's cutter. Trough has energy but with a pos tilt it just washes together. A zillion things can change and it's far from a non-event unless you want to take lr surface panels verbatim. That has such a history of working well for forecasting though. We know the ending to this story. BUT, things can't go against us forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yup...9z plumes are better for Baltimore (DC still not up). Mean is 0.21" snow, but of course, that is biased by outliers (high and low). Here's the link if people want to look: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html I'm still naturally suspicious of wraparound. It's not impossible, but it's pretty rare and busts often. That said, places farther south from SNE getting good snow (i.e., NYC) is a better sign of us getting pity flakes. Looks to me like the boundary layer still is a problem if you switch to the temp plumes. Anythings possible but the probability for getting accumulating snow is still probabilit around 5%. I sure wouldn't forecast it. Northeast of baltimore they have a better chance at wrap around. We're going to need a monumental temp profile bust by the NAM and GFS as the NAM has the 950 temp over plus 3C by 09Z. I think guys our near Fredreick have a good chance at starting as sleet at onset but don't see that lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LOL...NAM stalls this bad boy off the benchmark and just squeezes out any bit of precip over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks to me like the boundary layer still is a problem if you switch to the temp plumes. Anythings possible but the probability for getting accumulating snow is still probabilit around 5%. I sure wouldn't forecast it. Northeast of baltimore they have a better chance at wrap around. We're going to need a monumental temp profile bust by the NAM and GFS as the NAM has the 950 temp over plus 3C by 09Z. I think guys our near Fredreick have a good chance at starting as sleet at onset but don't see that lasting. Agree Wes. NE of Baltimore towards Philly has a shot. Those of us farther SW still have to dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Why is this payback? We're talking about NE, whose annual SN is 3-4 times ours. This should be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And they'll get 3-4 times our average... in 36 hours, if NAM is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I should rephrase to emphasize that a storm this size would not be expected but to be surprised about NE getting a big storm while we get nothing is like complaining about the plains getting tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thank goodness for sub-forums. We can talk about future fantasy snow here, while others can talk about historic real snow. MDstorm Edit: I think this says it all.....over 1000 people on this weather board now, but a mere 20-30 in this sub-forum. Next week this will just be a bad memory and at least I won't be stuck in my house for days and my back won't be sore and my work won't be disrupted and ......(add in more rationaliizations). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Why is this payback? We're talking about NE, whose annual SN is 3-4 times ours. This should be expected. I don't know that fretting about Boston or S. NH or western Mass is appropriate, but if NYC gets hit again, that will be a bunch of major storms that have hit them and missed us since 2/10/10. Just checking Central Park (slightly higher ave. than IAD) 20"+ in late Feb '10 20" Boxing Day '10 Almost 20" from our Commutageddon in late Jan '11 And while the city didn't cash in, Oct. '11 was big nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 please delete this thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I should rephrase to emphasize that a storm this size would not be expected but to be surprised about NE getting a big storm while we get nothing is like complaining about the plains getting tornados. Who is surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 But your not urban, your suburban so you can still get in the game. I live in Washington, DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I should be getting 10"+ here at school in POU. Instead, I have to come home to MD this weekend (tomorrow morning first thing), and there is absolutely no getting out of it. This makes it hurt even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't know that fretting about Boston or S. NH or western Mass is appropriate, but if NYC gets hit again, that will be a bunch of major storms that have hit them and missed us since 2/10/10. Just checking Central Park (slightly higher ave. than IAD) 20"+ in late Feb '10 20" Boxing Day '10 Almost 20" from our Commutageddon in late Jan '11 And while the city didn't cash in, Oct. '11 was big nearby I don't think 2/10 really belongs here considering that it was a snowy winter for the entire Mid-Atlantic, so it was likely for them to get in a storm we didn't after they missed out on 2/5-6. It's kind of like how we don't complain about missing out on 12/18-20/95 considering what happened the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I gotta say, I am getting effin' tired of the "this is payback for '09/'10 stuff". We were historically effed in the years prior to that with not much snow from 06 - 09, and we have been similar since that one six week run of goodness in 09/10. Generally, not to sugar coat, this is supreme bull**** in terms of being shafted, and it kinda pisses me off. Yes, I can't control the weather. Whatever. But its crap to think that years of **** systems are some kind of cosmic payback for one decent snowfall period. We should be doing better than this. For years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You mean you don't live in the wealthy part where Ian lives. I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I gotta say, I am getting effin' tired of the "this is payback for '09/'10 stuff". We were historically effed in the years prior to that with not much snow from 06 - 09, and we have been similar since that one six week run of goodness in 09/10. Generally, not to sugar coat, this is supreme bull**** in terms of being shafted, and it kinda pisses me off. Yes, I can't control the weather. Whatever. But its crap to think that years of **** systems are some kind of cosmic payback for one decent snowfall period. We should be doing better than this. For years now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 lol I gotta admit, it felt good to get that off my chest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I do. Figured, that is why you will get 3 flurries with the backlash snow. Don't be bitter because you road tripped last week to a place that is now getting over a foot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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