Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nothing happens. Looks supressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Weak low off SE ga coast. No storm . Glad I stayed up for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS = Warm and wet, GGEM = snow, Euro = Dry surpressed. *shrugs* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On my way to Virginia Beach for two days...glad I'm not missing anything up here. Good luck Boston....can't wait to see ctblizz totals...first guess 37" with next closest report at 24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Richmond gets 2 inches of water and Psuhoffman tries telling me its not a miller a gulf low This is a Miller B.... Are there 2 surface lows? Yes. Primary low inland tracking to our NW? Yes. Coastal low taking over and rapidly strengthening at our latitude or north? Yes. DC and Baltimore getting squat while NE gets pasted? YES(normally the case with Miller Bs) Richmond getting some significant rain does not make this a Miller A lol. There is always variability- not every case is textbook. But the way this storm evolves, it can clearly be characterized as a Milller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This is a Miller B.... Are there 2 surface lows? Yes. Primary low inland tracking to our NW? Yes. Coastal low taking over and rapidly strengthening at our latitude or north? Yes. DC and Baltimore getting squat while NE gets pasted? YES(normally the case with Miller Bs) Richmond getting some significant rain does not make this a Miller A lol. There is always variability- not every case is textbook. But the way this storm evolves, it can clearly be characterized as a Milller B. it looks to me like it is 2 separate lows that consolidate over the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the one thing I can't figure out is how the he!! did the Euro latch onto this thing so far in advance and end up being right it didn't do that with any of our blizzards in 09/10; in fact, except for maybe 1/96, I don't recall it doing this this far out for any big snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 great thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 now where have I seen this map before? lol pathetic http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I was hoping the overnight runs got dramatically better. Tony Pann sounded bullish for tomorrow on WBAL..."snow/sleet/freezing rain in the morning, then rain, then snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This thread is oozing with excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I was hoping the overnight runs got dramatically better. Tony Pann sounded bullish for tomorrow on WBAL..."snow/sleet/freezing rain in the morning, then rain, then snow". I haven't been able to bring myself to look at any runs until this morning when I resigned myself to the notion that NE was going to get hammered while we avoided the tv all weekend to avoid the coverage. Looking only at the 6z gfs, I'm happy to not only see that NE might not get the fabled historic event, but we may actually get a little love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I haven't been able to bring myself to look at any runs until this morning when I resigned myself to the notion that NE was going to get hammered while we avoided the tv all weekend to avoid the coverage. Looking only at the 6z gfs, I'm happy to not only see that NE might not get the fabled historic event, but we may actually get a little love. If I was NE of Baltimore, I might have a little hope for some backlash flurries, but most of us are probably not going to see anything. I see 6z GFS clownmaps show some snow for DC-Baltimore, but surface temps seem above freezing the whole time where it says "snow" is falling. North of Philly and that area might see a few inches from the CCB/deform zone wrapping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I was hoping the overnight runs got dramatically better. Tony Pann sounded bullish for tomorrow on WBAL..."snow/sleet/freezing rain in the morning, then rain, then snow". Tony Pann is buddies with Justin Berk. I really like both of them, but they can give false hope sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Double edged sword for people here. Only way we see something is hope for the juiced up Euro/CRAS/NAM etc runs which will give BOS their 3' snow. If we want them to get screwed then hope for the last couple GFS runs where it goes east and is dry. But that will keep us in the breeze and cold sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tony Pann is buddies with Justin Berk. I really like both of them, but they can give false hope sometimes. Tony is generally more cautious than JB2 so I hope he isn't grasping with this one and catching JB2 fever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Punt it. Hard. Out of the back of the endzone and into the crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If I was NE of Baltimore, I might have a little hope for some backlash flurries, but most of us are probably not going to see anything. I see 6z GFS clownmaps show some snow for DC-Baltimore, but surface temps seem above freezing the whole time where it says "snow" is falling. North of Philly and that area might see a few inches from the CCB/deform zone wrapping up. I hear you. I am not delusional, and have zero expectations other than knowing I'll wish that at some point this winter we could get even half of what sne may see this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 JB2 seems to be realistic with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 model huggers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 model huggers In four days this thread will be pinned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 In four days this thread will be pinned. I hope so but it's hard to say at this point. Punting it is foolish though. The only difference with 6z is it doesn't leave any ul energy behind next week's cutter. Trough has energy but with a pos tilt it just washes together. A zillion things can change and it's far from a non-event unless you want to take lr surface panels verbatim. That has such a history of working well for forecasting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Richmond gets 2 inches of water and Psuhoffman tries telling me its not a miller a gulf low I don't care what u call it you know darn well that the northern stream system is running interference. This isn't some fluke punishment from god it's what should happen in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the one thing I can't figure out is how the he!! did the Euro latch onto this thing so far in advance and end up being right it didn't do that with any of our blizzards in 09/10; in fact, except for maybe 1/96, I don't recall it doing this this far out for any big snow How is anything right, yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How is anything right, yet? Have you looked at the latest SREF's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Have you looked at the latest SREF's? Looks like there may be a few hours of light to moderate wrap around snow for central MD and Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How is anything right, yet? I was referring to the NE snow and "yes", maybe I should wait but dude, let's face it, every model slams them 1-2'+ so I think my statement is safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 9z SREF plumes are much better for Philly. Still waiting for ours to pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like NYC is going to be happy with this run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 9z SREF plumes are much better for Philly. Still waiting for ours to pop up. I suppose wrap around chances are increasing. My buddy is headed to CT/Ri. Wish i was headed up with him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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