H2O Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tony Pann is buddies with Justin Berk. I really like both of them, but they can give false hope sometimes. Tony is generally more cautious than JB2 so I hope he isn't grasping with this one and catching JB2 fever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Punt it. Hard. Out of the back of the endzone and into the crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If I was NE of Baltimore, I might have a little hope for some backlash flurries, but most of us are probably not going to see anything. I see 6z GFS clownmaps show some snow for DC-Baltimore, but surface temps seem above freezing the whole time where it says "snow" is falling. North of Philly and that area might see a few inches from the CCB/deform zone wrapping up. I hear you. I am not delusional, and have zero expectations other than knowing I'll wish that at some point this winter we could get even half of what sne may see this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 JB2 seems to be realistic with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 model huggers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 model huggers In four days this thread will be pinned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 In four days this thread will be pinned. I hope so but it's hard to say at this point. Punting it is foolish though. The only difference with 6z is it doesn't leave any ul energy behind next week's cutter. Trough has energy but with a pos tilt it just washes together. A zillion things can change and it's far from a non-event unless you want to take lr surface panels verbatim. That has such a history of working well for forecasting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Richmond gets 2 inches of water and Psuhoffman tries telling me its not a miller a gulf low I don't care what u call it you know darn well that the northern stream system is running interference. This isn't some fluke punishment from god it's what should happen in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the one thing I can't figure out is how the he!! did the Euro latch onto this thing so far in advance and end up being right it didn't do that with any of our blizzards in 09/10; in fact, except for maybe 1/96, I don't recall it doing this this far out for any big snow How is anything right, yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How is anything right, yet? Have you looked at the latest SREF's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Have you looked at the latest SREF's? Looks like there may be a few hours of light to moderate wrap around snow for central MD and Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How is anything right, yet? I was referring to the NE snow and "yes", maybe I should wait but dude, let's face it, every model slams them 1-2'+ so I think my statement is safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 9z SREF plumes are much better for Philly. Still waiting for ours to pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like NYC is going to be happy with this run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 9z SREF plumes are much better for Philly. Still waiting for ours to pop up. I suppose wrap around chances are increasing. My buddy is headed to CT/Ri. Wish i was headed up with him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, NYC and BOS are gonna get brutalized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yup...9z plumes are better for Baltimore (DC still not up). Mean is 0.21" snow, but of course, that is biased by outliers (high and low). Here's the link if people want to look: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html I'm still naturally suspicious of wraparound. It's not impossible, but it's pretty rare and busts often. That said, places farther south from SNE getting good snow (i.e., NYC) is a better sign of us getting pity flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yup...9z plumes are better for Baltimore (DC still not up). Mean is 0.21" snow, but of course, that is biased by outliers (high and low). Here's the link if people want to look: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html I'm still naturally suspicious of wraparound. It's not impossible, but it's pretty rare and busts often. That said, places farther south from SNE getting good snow (i.e., NYC) is a better sign of us getting pity flakes. IE why I think some flakes are possible. I mean I don't know about measurable, but good to see a trend for the better for anyone who hasn't punted (my man WWxluvr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not gonna lie, this one stings. Revenge of 09/10. It happens. We've got to concentrate on next week. Wes thinks the pattern is favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wrap around is an urban myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not gonna lie, this one stings. Revenge of 09/10. It happens. We've got to concentrate on next week. Wes thinks the pattern is favorable. but this is the 3rd or 4th time for that, Randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, NYC and BOS are gonna get brutalized. This is the one freak NAM run that gets NYC all super-excited, only to have the GFS and Euro crush them in a couple of hours. Requisite mid-atlantic analysis: boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wrap around is an urban myth. this possibility is starting to remind me of 4/1/97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 but this is the 3rd or 4th time for that, Randy True that. I'm just trying to rationalize and take the sting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 this possibility is starting to remind me of 4/1/97 Refresh my memory mitch. One of our few success stories for it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The NAM love going on in the NE forum is sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I hope so but it's hard to say at this point. Punting it is foolish though. The only difference with 6z is it doesn't leave any ul energy behind next week's cutter. Trough has energy but with a pos tilt it just washes together. A zillion things can change and it's far from a non-event unless you want to take lr surface panels verbatim. That has such a history of working well for forecasting though. We know the ending to this story. BUT, things can't go against us forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yup...9z plumes are better for Baltimore (DC still not up). Mean is 0.21" snow, but of course, that is biased by outliers (high and low). Here's the link if people want to look: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html I'm still naturally suspicious of wraparound. It's not impossible, but it's pretty rare and busts often. That said, places farther south from SNE getting good snow (i.e., NYC) is a better sign of us getting pity flakes. Looks to me like the boundary layer still is a problem if you switch to the temp plumes. Anythings possible but the probability for getting accumulating snow is still probabilit around 5%. I sure wouldn't forecast it. Northeast of baltimore they have a better chance at wrap around. We're going to need a monumental temp profile bust by the NAM and GFS as the NAM has the 950 temp over plus 3C by 09Z. I think guys our near Fredreick have a good chance at starting as sleet at onset but don't see that lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LOL...NAM stalls this bad boy off the benchmark and just squeezes out any bit of precip over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks to me like the boundary layer still is a problem if you switch to the temp plumes. Anythings possible but the probability for getting accumulating snow is still probabilit around 5%. I sure wouldn't forecast it. Northeast of baltimore they have a better chance at wrap around. We're going to need a monumental temp profile bust by the NAM and GFS as the NAM has the 950 temp over plus 3C by 09Z. I think guys our near Fredreick have a good chance at starting as sleet at onset but don't see that lasting. Agree Wes. NE of Baltimore towards Philly has a shot. Those of us farther SW still have to dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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