aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Rgem wraps up around HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's still not impossible to get some frozen but we're out of time for the miracle shift. Maybe we get something upfront that's washed down the gutter shortly after. But that would still be a win in my book. Why are we out of time for the miracle shift? The event is still over a day out. There are most certainly examples of a major blown forecast, in our favor, within the last 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just booked a room up there. Screw it. Me and the wife love Boston anyways. Dont know if we will make it to the city though. Who knows, you may have taken one for the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 bleh Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why are we out of time for the miracle shift? The event is still over a day out. There are most certainly examples of a major blown forecast, in our favor, within the last 15 years. problem is these things almost never wrap up quicker than expected. plus there's not much cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 if you check out the water vapor, that southern vort means business in its movement north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 pretty sure this happened with boxing day 1 I think it might have but even if it didn't, temps are really warm. here's the Dover sounding at 48hr. Matt has already showed that we are already warm at 36 hrs. Rain is rain. Date: 48 hour AVN valid 18Z FRI 8 FEB 13Station: KDOVLatitude: 39.13Longitude: -75.47-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 14 SFC 999 20 5.3 5.1 99 0.2 5.2 9 20 278.6 279.5 278.4 293.6 5.52 2 950 433 4.9 4.3 96 0.6 4.6 37 44 282.1 283.1 280.1 297.3 5.47 3 900 875 5.2 3.1 87 2.0 4.2 45 37 286.8 287.8 282.1 301.9 5.33 4 850 1341 4.2 1.8 84 2.4 3.1 47 25 290.6 291.5 283.5 305.4 5.14 5 800 1833 2.5 0.6 87 1.9 1.6 41 13 293.9 294.8 284.7 308.5 5.01 6 750 2353 -0.5 -1.3 94 0.9 -0.9 35 6 296.0 296.9 285.2 309.7 4.62 7 700 2902 -3.5 -4.1 96 0.6 -3.8 70 4 298.6 299.3 285.5 310.7 4.02 8 650 3485 -6.4 -6.8 97 0.4 -6.6 203 3 301.7 302.3 286.2 312.4 3.52 9 600 4107 -9.8 -10.1 98 0.3 -9.9 221 8 304.8 305.3 286.7 314.0 2.95 10 550 4774 -13.7 -13.9 98 0.2 -13.7 212 11 307.9 308.3 287.2 315.4 2.37 11 500 5493 -18.2 -18.3 99 0.2 -18.2 206 14 310.9 311.2 287.7 316.8 1.80 12 450 6271 -23.6 -23.7 99 0.1 -23.7 199 18 313.6 313.8 288.0 317.8 1.25 13 400 7121 -30.2 -30.2 100 0.0 -30.2 194 20 315.8 315.9 288.2 318.5 0.78 14 350 8056 -38.0 -38.0 100 0.0 -38.0 192 21 317.5 317.6 288.4 319.0 0.41 15 300 9095 -47.7 -47.8 98 0.1 -47.7 200 19 318.1 318.2 288.3 318.8 0.17 16 250 10284 -51.5 -59.2 40 7.6 -51.7 225 41 329.4 329.5 291.6 329.7 0.05 17 200 11742 -47.9 -72.8 4 24.9 -48.6 243 71 356.8 356.8 298.1 356.9 0.01 18 150 13631 -52.5 -78.9 3 26.4 -53.0 248 88 379.6 379.6 302.2 379.6 0.01 19 100 16175 -63.3 -81.0 7 17.8 -63.4 258 75 405.5 405.5 305.9 405.5 0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? one thing for sure is im not happy for boston. they get a hecs every year just about. white preppy town. hope they bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's still not impossible to get some frozen but we're out of time for the miracle shift. Maybe we get something upfront that's washed down the gutter shortly after. But that would still be a win in my book. Even then for most of us, it would be white falling and too warm to stick unless the flakes were the size of basketballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 one thing for sure is im not happy for boston. they get a hecs every year just about. white preppy town. hope they bust hard. I don't get upset when those north of me get it......but when it happens to the south, different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why are we out of time for the miracle shift? The event is still over a day out. There are most certainly examples of a major blown forecast, in our favor, within the last 15 years. Trust me, I'm a dedicated weenie but there are things that can't be overcome here. An all snow event is 100% off the table. If it happens I'm outta here forever. Edit: and what ian said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Even then for most of us, it would be white falling and too warm to stick unless the flakes were the size of basketballs. so you think we might get basketball sized flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DC at 36 hours....it is still too warm You're right, way warm. We have the 850's at -2.0 and -3.0 in the first and last frames but surface ranges from 2.0-4.5c throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I didn't want to go check Boston's forecast. And yet I couldn't help myself. I didn't want to read the blizzard watch language. But I couldn't help that either. And I salivated a bit. And tried to remember when we last had one of those. (Prior to one of the luscious 2010 storms, perhaps?) I'm such a pathetic masochist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 even PHL is way too warm on the GFS gotta' get to NYC and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Who knows, you may have taken one for the team. It is not a guaranteed rate. If its gonna snow here of any circumstance. I am cancelling the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why are we out of time for the miracle shift? The event is still over a day out. There are most certainly examples of a major blown forecast, in our favor, within the last 15 years. Yes. Painfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yes. Painfully so. I don't remember any cases of a 2 ft snow forecasted to go north of us shifting south and nailing us ever. Minor adjustments sure. Getting an inch unexpected sure. Having a major shift like this no. But there is always a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How's this thing looking for the green mountains in vermont? Might consider a trip up to stratton or killington. They seem to get a nice bit from the primary and an inverted trough type thing combined with upslope. Consensus seems a nice 12" storm for Vermont. Maybe more is the winds hit the mtns just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm going with climo on this one.. 3 inches of slop followed by dry slot/drizzle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm going with climo on this one.. 3 inches of slop followed by dry slot/drizzle.. We're not even going to get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm going with climo on this one.. 3 inches of slop followed by dry slot/drizzle.. You sure are optimistic. Not a single model shows 3 inches of slop for DCA right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 problem is these things almost never wrap up quicker than expected. plus there's not much cold air. The storm can make its own cold air. reference (Weenie Handbook, page 74). MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't remember any cases of a 2 ft snow forecasted to go north of us shifting south and nailing us ever. Minor adjustments sure. Getting an inch unexpected sure. Having a major shift like this no. But there is always a first. We have had major storms downgraded. But I wasn't referring to MA getting anything in this instance. Rather thinking of us getting painfully shafted at times. Yeah. A shift here on this this one may get someone some flakes. Not counting on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think at this point boston is locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You sure are optimistic. Not a single model shows 3 inches of slop for DCA right now. Climo.. and storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 For once, my travel plans might work out... I'm driving up to NYC on Friday morning and will be there until Sunday evening... looking forward to finally seeing some real snow Hoping for thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Train Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I have a trip to NYC this weekend - arriving around 10:30 Friday morning - so I can give you guys a full report. The NYC thread is full of "rain to 3 inches" or "30 inches+". Either way, I'll need an umbrella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The way the radar looks; the leading edge of the precip looks as if it would reach central VA by late tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFS are colder and wetter to some degree across most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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