NOVAForecaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't get the weaker southern vort though on 0Z, seems the opposite of what obs show compared to this time at 18Z, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:38 AM, mitchnick said: it doesn't show what they want falling from the sky because of this; a mess at 5H http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_027_500_vort_ht.gif Also effs up our already bombing storm off the se coast... Just watch radar if you want anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:29 AM, Solo2 said: My DP is 24, but it is a pretty cheapo station.... I have a Vantage Vue and generally seems in line with other stations. All the other wunderground stations seem to be about 28F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:38 AM, mitchnick said: it doesn't show what they want falling from the sky because of this; a mess at 5H http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_027_500_vort_ht.gif For their sake I hope the EURO does not show anything similar or there will be mass suicides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Immediate DC area could get an hour or two of snow/snow mix I'd guess. The warmer air off the sfc invades pretty quick. I guess root for the northern end of precip to outrace the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 N NJ goes from about 3' on the nam to 6-10" on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:34 AM, PhineasC said: The GFS is no help. The EURO is the king of this storm, always has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Possible help from a deform band on the HRRR? It would be snow at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS really might be having feedback issues, it just doesn't seem to match with what we are seeing right now. NAM is crazy in the other direction but somewhere in the middle seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Again, people need to beware of the GFS. It has caught on and even led the pack in a few instances. If I were up north, I'd be a little anxious...but even on the GFS, it's still a formidable storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:37 AM, mitchnick said: N. MD backlash has sort of made a return on the GFS Maybe Tommy T was on to something earlier?See what he's got going at 11:15 I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:49 AM, Scraff said: Maybe Tommy T was on to something earlier?See what he's got going at 11:15 I guess... He will show the RPM like he always does, so whatever the latest run of that shows is what he will go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS clown map gives most of central VA 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:50 AM, ravensrule said: He will show the RPM like he always does, so whatever the latest run of that shows is what he will go with. He does love himself some RPM. I noticed that. How accurate is it in this range? Is it friends with with the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:58 AM, Scraff said: He does love himself some RPM. I noticed that. How accurate is it in this range? Is it friends with with the NAM? They say it get's more accurate the closer it is to the event, but it still seems like it always overdoes things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 i would consider taking an 0-fer for this season if it means NYC only sees a few inches from this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 4:04 AM, Ji said: i would consider taking an 0-fer for this season if it means NYC only sees a few inches from this storm Are you on drugs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 4:00 AM, ravensrule said: They say it get's more accurate the closer it is to the event, but it still seems like it always overdoes things. Cool. Thanks for the heads up. Not waiting up for EURO. Heading to bed shortly so I can save my strength for all that shoveling. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 4:04 AM, Ji said: i would consider taking an 0-fer for this season if it means NYC only sees a few inches from this storm lol we're likely getting an 0-fer regardless of what NYC gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 4:06 AM, mitchnick said: lol we're likely getting an 0-fer regardless of what NYC gets as our "avg left" numbers decrease our odds of having an above normal snowfall period increase. keep that in your noggin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 4:04 AM, Ji said: i would consider taking an 0-fer for this season if it means NYC only sees a few inches from this storm on second thought, grab some solace with this map http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_093_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 4:06 AM, mitchnick said: lol we're likely getting an 0-fer regardless of what NYC gets very true...thats why I would have no problem taking it. its what I am getting anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Down a degree in last 90 minutes to 34 with 27dp. Winds gaining more northerly component ehre and at many local stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 4:08 AM, Ian said: as our "avg left" numbers decrease our odds of having an above normal snowfall period increase. keep that in your noggin. crunch the numbers anyway you want, if we get a decent storm this year of 4"+, we will be lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 4:08 AM, mitchnick said: on second thought, grab some solace with this map http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_093_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif what are you showing me? a normal winter day in DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Precip just started off as sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 4:09 AM, mitchnick said: crunch the numbers anyway you want, if we get a decent storm this year of 4"+, we will be lucky come on... .... it's never going to snow that much again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 4:08 AM, Ian said: as our "avg left" numbers decrease our odds of having an above normal snowfall period increase. keep that in your noggin. I luv math. Too bad 4 out of 3 people have problems with fractions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 one would think this map might get something done, but alas, it is the winter of 12/13 in the MA might work out http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_123_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 4:09 AM, mitchnick said: crunch the numbers anyway you want, if we get a decent storm this year of 4"+, we will be lucky We will see one, or you can bump troll me until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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