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PUNTING NEMO


Ji

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The models last week, between the GFS truncation and the model's faster Pacific Low arrival, essentially crushed the southern stream waves in the compressing flow. The last 2 days have exposed a lot of bad logic from various weather sources, whether it was "the euro has been doing this lately" to "it is the seasonal trend" to "the flow is too progressive" ... all of these things are bad logic. Instead, the questions should be, "why have they been doing this and why would or why won't that continue?"

 

There is a 1030mb+ high with an inverted ridge, reducing the southerly component of the low level winds. There is going to be wintry precip on the front-end, assuming the modeling is in ballpark with how it's handling the s/w. Obviously, issues with precip type are a big concern, especially for the coastal areas.

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850 temps are below freezing for the first part of the storm for us on the Euro, but surface temps are torching.  Got to kill that low to the northwest so we can get some northerly component to our low-level winds.  

Agreed, posted something small in the NE forum on that, we aren't going to get nearly as nice a prog on our wintry chances if that primary dominates longer, what is positive is that most recent models have began to die it off quicker, so that cold allow the high to the north to bring in some more LL cold, and not allow southerly flow to torch us. 

 

Also, a note, we need to watch the track of the 850 low in a situation like this, I find it at least somewhat important. 

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You ever see the SREFS and NAM so far apart on a precip event than they are for Friday?

 

If memory serves, these are the types of events that trend colder as we get closer.  Doesn't mean it will, but it is still Feb. 5.

You might think looking at some of the maps that the temps are way too warm, but they aren't as high as it would appear.  Yes, even on the SREFS they are too warm, but they are barely too warm.

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On second look I suppose it's possible for the ns vort to get pushed a little further south. Depends on the pv of course. 100 miles south and we get a quicker transfer and the 1035hp to the n can do it's thing. It's going to be messy and close but we need some help quick. Only a couple of days to play. 

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12z GFS so close....is there any reason to think the OV low will just disappear?

Eh...OH Valley low is much stronger on 12z than (for example) 6z.  Coastal is too, however.  End result isn't too different.  

 

It probably won't disappear...but if it can weaken and the coastal can get stronger faster, we might have a chance.  

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On second look I suppose it's possible for the ns vort to get pushed a little further south. Depends on the pv of course. 100 miles south and we get a quicker transfer and the 1035hp to the n can do it's thing. It's going to be messy and close but we need some help quick. Only a couple of days to play.

Closer than i ever thought we'd be.

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