patrick7032 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 452 AM CST SAT FEB 9 2013 .SHORT TERM... EXPECT STRONG WINDS TODAY AND A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...POWERED BY A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX...MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS BETWEEN 9AM AND 6PM ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HASKELL TO ABILENE TO EDEN TO SONORA. WE ARE PLANNING TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AND A LAKE ADVISORY EAST OF THIS LINE. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THAT WILL SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR STORMS AS THEY COLLIDE WITH THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST MODELS SHOW THE DRYLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO WC TX AFTER 6PM. LATEST NAM MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWS 55 TO 60KTS OF 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1200J/KG FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE PROGGED TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BROWNWOOD TO SONORA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MUCAPE VALUES OF 1200 J/KG...0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55 TO 60KTS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. A FEW OF THE SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY DID SHOW SOME WEAK CAPPING. DO PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN THE FORECAST...HWO AND THE GRAPHICAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST SAT FEB 09 2013 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO WRN AL... ...SYNOPSIS... A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WITH STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXPANDING SWD TO THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ERN NEB INTO IA BY 00Z...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM STL TO MEM TO HOU. PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL ALLOW A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS LA...SRN AR...MS...AND AL WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S F. THESE BOUNDARIES...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ...ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN AR/SERN OK INTO NERN TX. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALREADY BE STRONGLY SHEARED...AND THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING INCREASING DEEP DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE SPREADING EWD AND LIKELY ENHANCING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION...THUS THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS SRN AR...NERN TX AND NRN LA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE S OF THE WARM FRONT MAINLY THROUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AS HEATING SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALTHOUGH CAPPED EARLY...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A CORRIDOR OF MAXIMUM TORNADO PROBABILITY FROM NERN LA INTO MUCH OF CNTRL MS...IMMEDIATELY S OF/OR AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL AR/NRN MS MCS. WITH LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES COULD OCCUR. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEVERE COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACTIVITY PRECLUDES HIGHER OVERALL PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..JEWELL.. 02/09/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Beautiful hodographs across LA/AR/MS tomorrow. Some hi-res meso models want to pop some discrete stuff ahead of the qlcsc/squall line. Could be quite a significant day locally with strong/violent tornadoes not out of the question IMO, with Tds >=60F and open hodographs. SREFs also eating up this area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 SIGTOR not bad for overnight in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 An interesting graphic from part of my forecaster development training that I thought everyone may like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Initiation has occured near Clarendon. 53/49 just ahead of the activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Golfballs being reported with that cell along with hail covering 287. That cell had an explosive initiation Very impressive for February to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Golfballs being reported with that cell along with hail covering 287. That cell had an explosive initiation Very impressive for February to say the least. 45 minutes to develop on the radar loop. Quite impressive indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Golfballs being reported with that cell along with hail covering 287. That cell had an explosive initiation Very impressive for February to say the least. Hindsight is 20/20... that alone probably would've been worth the drive out for me. Then again, I have some friends who did go out today and they turned around at sunset, so at least things could be worse than us staying home. As paltry as the sfc theta-e is in the current storm environment, it should drop off rather quickly as they haul east and outpace the dryline. Of course, they may already be slightly elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Also, just have to acknowledge that the ECMWF is still ****ing king. It absolutely nailed initiation 00z-03z in this exact region from 4-5 days out and never wavered up to this morning's run. The 12z NAM and GFS, along with various HRRR runs today, had no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Severe warnings now issued in LBB's area. Not sure why SPC moved the severe east. Didn't agree with that. BTW...anyone having issues where sometimes it takes several attempts to paste text after coping it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Severe warnings now issued in LBB's area. Not sure why SPC moved the severe east. Didn't agree with that. I was surprised to see that they even took away sub-risk worthy probs. Nonetheless, the line quickly weakened after pushing away from the marginal environment. Looks like a nice sub-severe line recently developed in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I was surprised to see that they even took away sub-risk worthy probs. Nonetheless, the line quickly weakened after pushing away from the marginal environment. Looks like a nice sub-severe line recently developed in your area. Looks like that line is grabbing a gear now that it has pushed just east of San Angelo to Abilene, 7 severe warnings out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 10% tor probs for extreme SE AR/small part of SW AL and large chunks of LA/MS tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Is that a hook developing on I-10 NW of San Antonio somewhere near Junction? ETA SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGTXC171-100815-/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0001.130210T0723Z-130210T0815Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX123 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... GILLESPIE COUNTY... * UNTIL 215 AM CST. * AT 121 AM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF TIVYDALE...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF KERRVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CHERRY SPRING...HILLTOP... FREDERICKSBURG...GRAPETOWN...CAIN CITY...ROCKY HILL... LUCKENBACH ... CRABAPPLE...BLUMENTHAL...ECKERT...STONEWALL AND WILLOW CITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Wow that thing is very nice looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Tornado watch out. Includes Austin, Georgetown, Temple and Centerville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If there are any storms that could go tornadic tonight it would be those 2 supercells North of San Antonio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Man that thing has a spectacular presentation on reflectivity (the southern one). More cells trying to initiate to the ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I am assuming, despite apparent surface based CAPE, and based on what is labeled as a 6Z (Midnight) balloon release from CLL (not a normal sounding sight, but the met school has some) the lead cells haven't produced because of the 850 mb warm nose and mediocre low level lapse rates. Plenty of mid level speed shear and instability. 6Z balloon sounding graphic from KCLL on KHOU-TV local wx forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Southern cell really looking good again as it moves towards I-35. It's definitely trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It has rotation looking at free NWS radar products. The model sounding for 15Z (above) has much less of a warm nose than the 6Z CLL sounding. I wish they'd transmit those to SPC, I see only 0Z soundings on their page. Just checking 7Z model sounding for CLL, it compares well to the 6Z balloon, and SPC mesoanalysis page shows the 2 cells developing very near the edge of where CINH drops below -25 J/Kg. ETA Further North, nice little kinks in line moving through Metroplex, severe warned. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX225 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..0224 AM TSTM WND GST SAGINAW 32.87N 97.37W02/10/2013 E60 MPH TARRANT TX TRAINED SPOTTER LONGHORN AT NORTH MAIN$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It has had 'the look' several times all evening, late night/early morning, but has apparently not produced beyond 1.5 inch hail. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX332 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY...* UNTIL 415 AM CST.* AT 326 AM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LIBERTY HILL...OR 10 MILES WEST OF SERENADA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ANDICE...GEORGETOWN DAM...SUN CITY...GEORGETOWN...FLORENCE...WEIR AND JARRELL.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...DOPPLER RADAR HAS DETECTED ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH NOTIMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVETO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT ORSMALL INTERIOR ROOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 340 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY... * UNTIL 415 AM CST. * AT 335 AM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SUN CITY...OR ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF SERENADA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SUN CITY...SERANADA... WEIR...WALBURG AND JARRELL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. Familiar name there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Looked to be a strong couplet from San Antonio right over I-35. Oddly it doesn't look that great from KGRK even at the highest scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If the storm didn't produce a tornado, it was very close to it. Jarrell had its south portion skimmed by the signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Impressive hook on the same storm now near Rosebud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Favorable supercell environment across southern LA and southwest MS. Any discrete/semi-discrete we get into that area could really go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The storm SW of Jackson MS looks dangerous from the New Orleans radar. Maybe time for the stronger storms to start spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Snippet from latest D1. CELLS OVER SERN LA AND SRN MS APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND NOT TAKINGADVANTAGE OF THE LOWER PORTION OF THE HODOGRAPH. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELMOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PERSIST...AND CELLS COULD CHANGE CHARACTERLATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE SWRN-MOST CELLS CLOSEST TO THEWARMER AIR. STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE MAIN LINE COULD BRIEFLYINCREASE IN INTENSITY AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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