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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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Any additional 1-4" snowfalls can be shoved into a very dark place for this season. I'm all out of chunk change.

 

As far as expecting anymore than that, yes, I am giving up on this one. It's not like we're 72 hours where a drastic change in solutions will take place. Besides, the trend this season seem to be that we trend weaker/less phased with these systems as we approach their time frames.

 

I hate that I let the Canadian/European models kinda suck me in, which still only showed 3-4" of snow as of its most "impressive" runs (12z 2/5/2013).

 

And after that one last system cruises by to the SE next week, I will have my grade for this winter.

 

But again, if nothing else, I am pulling for those in Northern Lower Michigan into Toronto (this will probably be their biggest synoptic snowstorm in some time).

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Actually noticed some slight difference in GFS QPF via NCEP page and InstantWeatherMaps. InstantWeathermaps sugesting 10-12" here (actually what the Euro had). Should have a WSW up here tomorrow morning if nothing drastically chages with the Euro. Hoping it's a little more south for you and SSC.

 

Have a better chance at wining the powerball jackpot then getting any needed shift for a decent hit here. :lol:

 

Regardless it is much improved from what the models had been showing a few days back and thus the rain. Just need the next one to follow suit.

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Any additional 1-4" snowfalls can be shoved into a very dark place for this season. I'm all out of chunk change.

 

As far as expecting anymore than that, yes, I am giving up on this one. It's not like we're 72 hours where a drastic change in solutions will take place. Besides, the trend this season seem to be that we trend weaker/less phased with these systems as we approach their time frames.

 

I hate that I let the Canadian/European models kinda suck me in, which still only showed 3-4" of snow as of its most "impressive" runs (12z 2/5/2013).

 

And after that one last system cruises by to the SE next week, I will have my grade for this winter.

 

But again, if nothing else, I am pulling for those in Northern Lower Michigan into Toronto (this will probably be their biggest synoptic snowstorm in some time).

:cry:

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Have a better chance at wining the powerball jackpot then getting any needed shift for a decent hit here. :lol:

 

Regardless it is much improved from what the models had been showing a few days back and thus the rain. Just need the next one to follow suit.

Yup. Our biggest system here has been 3" this season so far. Didn't see anything above 4-5" last season as well. (In Mount Pleasant)

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Any additional 1-4" snowfalls can be shoved into a very dark place for this season. I'm all out of chunk change.

 

As far as expecting anymore than that, yes, I am giving up on this one. It's not like we're 72 hours where a drastic change in solutions will take place. Besides, the trend this season seem to be that we trend weaker/less phased with these systems as we approach their time frames.

 

I hate that I let the Canadian/European models kinda suck me in, which still only showed 3-4" of snow as of its most "impressive" runs (12z 2/5/2013).

 

And after that one last system cruises by to the SE next week, I will have my grade for this winter.

 

But again, if nothing else, I am pulling for those in Northern Lower Michigan into Toronto (this will probably be their biggest synoptic snowstorm in some time).

 

Going deep. :weenie:

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It is such a thread the needle situation I'm not sure I can even buy it.  The 850-surface 0C line sneaks so close to Milwaukee that it is a gift from the gods it stays just to the south and west.

 

Actually it sinks away from Milwaukee as the band moves in. More of a nail bitter down this way.

 

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If we can start out as snow, I think we will stay as snow the entire time. While the NAM has an above freezing layer between 950 and 850 (GFS keeps the entire column below freezing), however the column drops below freezing due to evaporational cooling at the onset of precipitation . As long as the strength  of  the WAA  stays as progged, the precip rates should allow the column to stay at or below freezing.

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If we can start out as snow, I think we will stay as snow the entire time. While the NAM has an above freezing layer between 950 and 850 (GFS keeps the entire column below freezing), however the column drops below freezing due to evaporational cooling at the onset of precipitation . As long as the strength  of  the WAA  stays as progged, the precip rates should allow the column to stay at or below freezing.

 

That's what I was thinking, if dynamic cooling has something to say about it, that combined with snowcover will make it difficult for a mix or rain to hang on for too long unless WAA is drastically undermodeled in this situation.

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That's what I was thinking, if dynamic cooling has something to say about it, that combined with snowcover will make it difficult for a mix or rain to hang on for too long unless WAA is drastically undermodeled in this situation.

 

Taking things as they are right now rain shouldn't be an issue, its a matter if we have mostly snow or a bit of sleet mixing in especially near the IL/WI border.

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I'll let Joe do the list but this is for DPA. Atleast good for a few inches on this run if not more. So close.

 

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.8     0.5    1019      83      98    0.04     555     540   
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.5     0.6    1017      92      97    0.17     554     541   
FRI 00Z 08-FEB     0.0    -2.2    1015      98      99    0.38     551     538   
FRI 06Z 08-FEB   -1.4    -4.8    1018      91      88    0.17     543     529   
FRI 12Z 08-FEB   -1.9    -6.0    1022      87      49    0.01     544     526   

 

 

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Actually shows .50+ for all of us. Highest from Muskegon/Grand Rapids east to the Thumb on over to SSC backyard .75+ and even a blob of 1 inch + qpf near Mt Pleasant and again Toronto..

Not only does the EURO seem to be the wettest for us, but also the coldest. 2m temps in the 20s the entire time. Since we will be starting with an approximately 4" snowpack, if the euro verified we would be seeing our first double-digit snow depths since Feb 2011. Dont want to jump the gun though, remember NAM has next to nothing lol.

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0z ECMWF text list...

 

LSE:

THU 00Z 07-FEB  -0.8    -1.5    1018      82      98    0.02     552     537    
THU 06Z 07-FEB  -0.5    -1.3    1018      91      87    0.04     552     537    
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -1.2    -1.6    1017      95      61    0.02     550     537    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.7    -2.7    1019      89      58    0.01     548     533    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -0.2    -5.7    1020      90      81    0.02     544     527    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -2.9    -7.9    1024      88      64    0.02     543     524

 

CID:

THU 06Z 07-FEB   3.0     3.3    1016      77      87    0.01     557     544    
THU 12Z 07-FEB   2.0     2.6    1015      93      84    0.03     555     543    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   2.2     0.7    1016      97      95    0.12     553     541    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB   1.2    -2.8    1018      95      38    0.05     547     533    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB   0.1    -4.8    1022      91      39    0.01     546     528

 

DVN:

THU 06Z 07-FEB   2.4     4.0    1017      71      77    0.02     557     543    
THU 12Z 07-FEB   1.8     2.6    1016      90      76    0.06     556     543    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   2.4     0.7    1016      95      97    0.18     554     542    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB   0.7    -0.8    1017      98      86    0.25     550     536    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB   0.1    -4.0    1020      91      43    0.01     544     528

 

MSN:

THU 00Z 07-FEB  -1.5    -1.4    1021      83      99    0.01     553     537    
THU 06Z 07-FEB  -1.4    -1.0    1020      87      96    0.03     553     538    
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.8    -1.1    1018      93      96    0.08     552     538    
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -0.2    -2.2    1018      93      94    0.13     551     537    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -0.4    -4.6    1018      95      79    0.14     546     532    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -2.1    -6.6    1021      91      82    0.04     542     526

 

MKE:

THU 06Z 07-FEB  -1.2    -0.1    1021      86      97    0.02     554     537    
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.3    -1.8    1019      92      97    0.09     553     537    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.2    -2.6    1019      92     100    0.20     552     537    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -1.1    -4.9    1018      94      98    0.30     548     534    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -1.7    -6.9    1019      90      95    0.16     542     527    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -2.5    -8.2    1023      86      38    0.02     543     525

 

RAC:

THU 06Z 07-FEB  -0.9     0.3    1021      85      92    0.01     554     537    
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.1    -1.4    1019      90      98    0.08     553     538    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.3    -2.1    1018      91      98    0.20     552     538    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -0.7    -4.5    1017      94      99    0.35     548     535    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -1.5    -6.7    1019      90      95    0.18     542     528    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -1.9    -8.1    1023      85      41    0.02     543     525

 

RFD:

THU 06Z 07-FEB  -1.0     2.8    1019      81      76    0.00     556     540    
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.2     0.7    1018      90      98    0.09     554     540    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.3    -0.1    1017      95      97    0.13     553     540    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -0.2    -2.6    1016      96      98    0.36     549     536    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -1.4    -4.8    1019      88      73    0.08     543     527

 

DKB:

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.5     0.9    1018      86      99    0.05     555     540    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.3     0.5    1017      95      96    0.17     554     541    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -0.1    -2.3    1016      97      99    0.42     550     538    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -1.5    -4.5    1018      89      80    0.12     543     528

 

DPA:

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.8     0.5    1019      83      98    0.04     555     540    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.5     0.6    1017      92      97    0.17     554     541    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB   0.0    -2.2    1015      98      99    0.38     551     538    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -1.4    -4.8    1018      91      88    0.17     543     529    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -1.9    -6.0    1022      87      49    0.01     544     526

 

UGN:

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.3    -0.6    1019      87     100    0.06     554     539    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.4    -0.9    1018      90      96    0.17     553     539    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -0.2    -3.5    1016      96     100    0.40     549     537    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -1.4    -6.0    1018      91      94    0.21     543     528    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -1.7    -7.8    1022      85      46    0.02     543     525

 

ORD:

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.6     0.1    1019      82      97    0.04     555     540    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.6     0.4    1017      91      99    0.15     554     540    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB   0.2    -2.2    1015      97      99    0.35     551     538    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -1.0    -5.3    1017      91      91    0.23     543     530    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -1.4    -7.1    1022      86      53    0.02     543     526 

 

MDW:

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.6     0.6    1020      80      95    0.02     555     540    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   1.2     0.8    1017      86      92    0.11     555     541    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB   0.5    -1.7    1015      97     100    0.23     551     539    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -0.4    -5.0    1017      90      91    0.26     544     531    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -1.0    -7.0    1021      84      58    0.02     543     526 

 

VPZ:

THU 18Z 07-FEB   1.6     1.8    1018      75      86    0.02     556     541    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB   1.0    -0.1    1014      91     100    0.04     553     542    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -0.2    -4.2    1014      95      86    0.30     547     535    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -1.4    -7.3    1020      85      64    0.02     542     527

 

LAF:

FRI 06Z 08-FEB   1.3    -0.4    1013      98      97    0.16     551     541    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -0.7    -4.4    1019      84      49    0.02     544     530

 

OKK:

FRI 06Z 08-FEB   2.2     0.5    1012      96     100    0.11     551     542    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -2.0    -4.9    1017      89      65    0.08     544     530

 

FWA:

FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -0.7     0.4    1012      92     100    0.08     551     541    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -2.7    -5.8    1016      88      75    0.17     543     530

 

MKG:

THU 06Z 07-FEB  -2.6    -3.6    1023      83     100    0.04     552     534    
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -2.5    -4.2    1022      83      99    0.04     552     535    
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -2.1    -4.0    1020      86      99    0.18     552     536    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -2.3    -5.3    1018      90     100    0.31     548     534    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -2.5    -7.1    1018      88      98    0.29     543     529    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -3.0    -8.2    1022      81      79    0.06     541     524 

 

GRR:

THU 06Z 07-FEB  -4.4    -3.8    1024      85     100    0.02     553     534    
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -4.2    -3.1    1023      83     100    0.01     552     535    
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -2.8    -3.9    1021      82     100    0.10     553     536    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -2.3    -4.3    1018      91     100    0.25     550     536    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -3.2    -6.4    1017      91     100    0.42     544     531    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -3.8    -8.0    1020      84      94    0.12     540     524    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -3.0    -7.6    1025      67      15    0.01     544     524

 

BTL:

THU 18Z 07-FEB  -1.8    -1.9    1021      77     100    0.02     554     538    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -1.5    -2.4    1017      85     100    0.07     551     538    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -3.2    -4.3    1015      91     100    0.33     546     535    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -3.6    -7.3    1019      87      94    0.17     540     526    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -3.3    -6.7    1024      72      18    0.01     544     525

 

MOP:

THU 06Z 07-FEB  -4.7    -6.4    1025      83     100    0.04     550     531    
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -4.7    -5.1    1024      86     100    0.10     550     532    
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -3.5    -6.2    1023      80      99    0.11     551     533    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -3.5    -6.6    1020      92     100    0.27     548     532    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -3.5    -7.7    1018      92      99    0.34     543     529    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -5.0    -8.5    1022      84      91    0.14     540     523    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -4.5    -8.8    1026      68      12    0.01     542     522

 

PTK:

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -6.2    -3.7    1025      79      92    0.03     553     533    
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -1.4    -2.6    1023      70      98    0.01     553     535    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -2.8    -2.9    1019      74     100    0.01     551     536    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -3.5    -4.5    1016      84     100    0.10     547     535    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -3.9    -7.2    1017      89      98    0.42     542     529    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -3.3    -8.7    1021      74      67    0.07     540     524

 

DET:

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -5.6    -3.5    1026      82      93    0.02     553     534    
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -1.9    -2.3    1023      74      92    0.01     554     536    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -2.7    -2.0    1019      72      97    0.00     552     537    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -2.8    -3.3    1015      81      99    0.02     549     536    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -3.0    -6.1    1015      91      99    0.46     543     532    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -3.0    -8.6    1020      76      84    0.13     540     524

 

DTW:

FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -2.8    -2.8    1015      83      99    0.03     549     537    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -3.2    -5.9    1015      90      98    0.44     543     532    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -3.0    -8.0    1020      75      78    0.09     540     524

 

TOL:

FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -2.5    -0.2    1013      87      99    0.02     550     540    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -3.1    -5.0    1014      91      90    0.35     544     533    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -2.8    -6.9    1020      77      68    0.05     541     525

 

CLE:

FRI 12Z 08-FEB   1.5    -0.7    1009      90     100    0.10     548     540    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -4.4    -7.4    1015      88      98    0.32     540     528    
SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -5.3   -10.1    1023      83      32    0.04     540     522    
SAT 06Z 09-FEB  -6.9    -8.4    1027      83      11    0.01     544     523

 

YKF:

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -7.4   -10.3    1029      72      95    0.01     549     527    
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -3.9    -7.9    1027      64     100    0.02     551     529    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -5.9    -5.0    1024      85      87    0.06     550     531    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -5.2    -5.0    1020      90      98    0.05     547     531    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -8.7    -6.6    1018      87      99    0.24     544     530    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -9.3    -9.1    1019      82     100    0.46     540     525    
SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -9.7    -9.7    1023      78      95    0.15     538     521    
SAT 06Z 09-FEB -15.1   -10.0    1026      82      12    0.01     540     520

 

YYZ:

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -6.6   -12.2    1029      72      96    0.01     548     525    
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -4.5    -9.7    1029      70      98    0.02     550     527    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -5.2    -6.8    1026      81      92    0.08     549     529    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -4.8    -6.4    1022      85      95    0.08     547     530    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -7.2    -7.5    1020      89     100    0.21     544     529    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -8.5    -9.1    1019      86      99    0.49     541     526    
SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -8.7   -10.2    1023      81      98    0.31     538     521    
SAT 06Z 09-FEB -10.8   -10.7    1025      81      52    0.03     539     520

 

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I'll let Joe do the list but this is for DPA. Atleast good for a few inches on this run if not more. So close.

 

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.8     0.5    1019      83      98    0.04     555     540   

THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.5     0.6    1017      92      97    0.17     554     541   

FRI 00Z 08-FEB     0.0    -2.2    1015      98      99    0.38     551     538   

FRI 06Z 08-FEB   -1.4    -4.8    1018      91      88    0.17     543     529   

FRI 12Z 08-FEB   -1.9    -6.0    1022      87      49    0.01     544     526   

 

Just throwing this out there, because it could be relevant, but the Euro last night had 925mb temps at ORD for 18z Tuesday (today) at 0.1C.  I don't believe ORD got above 30F or 31F today, correct me if I'm wrong, so that could be a good sign that even the Euro could be overdoing temps just a wee bit and not taking snowcover into account.

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