dmc76 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Saginaw Valley FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 TErrible... Good luck to snowstormcanuck!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM seems pretty amped up aloft. A lot of dry air just to our south that's one more shift to the north from being advected into Toronto. Outlier run and I'll treat it as such but reason for pause before getting carried away with accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is dangerously close to whiffing Hamilton completely. We're right on the line between a 6" storm and barely 2". Praying this doesn't go north any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Too progressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is dangerously close to whiffing Hamilton completely. We're right on the line between a 6" storm and barely 2". Praying this doesn't go north any more. Too close for comfort. It's one run and one run of the NAM no less. But I think I'm going to hold off making any calls 'til tomorrow morning when I've seen the rest of the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Too progressive! Too progressive? It gets any more amplified it's going to be cutting towards Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 One rule that'll help me sleep tonight: Wyandotte always gets hit. Josh's snow magnet will prevent this from getting as far north as the 0z NAM is depicting, <0.10" QPF for far SE MI? No chance in hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 One rule that'll help me sleep tonight: Wyandotte always gets hit. Josh's snow magnet will prevent this from getting as far north as the 0z NAM is depicting, <0.10" QPF for far SE MI? No chance in hell. Kinda funny but i was thinking the exact same thing. Ofcourse for here this run is very legit as the heaviest snows just miss to my nw. ANYTHING that JUST misses here with the heaviest snows this winter is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 TErrible... Good luck to snowstormcanuck!!! This will be a painful system to watch as it pounds a region just 75 miles north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Here comes the towel throwing via the NAM. Clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 One rule that'll help me sleep tonight: Wyandotte always gets hit. Josh's snow magnet will prevent this from getting as far north as the 0z NAM is depicting, <0.10" QPF for far SE MI? No chance in hell. Wouldn't sweat it until the Dr changes, if it does. It's been rock solid for several runs for you. Easy for me to say I guess...but we need not lose sleep over the fookin NAM. Trash model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Here comes the towel throwing via the NAM. Clockwork. Yeah it never fails to test one's patience and throw them a loop. I don't bother looking at NAM off hours anymore because it seems like throwing darts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah it never fails to test one's patience and throw them a loop. I don't bother looking at NAM off hours anymore because it seems like throwing darts. It's rather annoying, I wont lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 One rule that'll help me sleep tonight: Wyandotte always gets hit. Josh's snow magnet will prevent this from getting as far north as the 0z NAM is depicting, <0.10" QPF for far SE MI? No chance in hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lol it is the NAM, does anyone actually believe the NAM is going to get anything right ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lol it is the NAM, does anyone actually believe the NAM is going to get anything right ever? Exactly. Unless trends coalesce towards the NAM I wont really trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Exactly. Unless trends coalesce towards the NAM I wont really trust it. The NAM has a hard time getting a 12hr forecast right and people are getting all hot and bothered over a run of the NAM 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The NAM has a hard time getting a 12hr forecast right and people are getting all hot and bothered over a run of the NAM 48 hours out. I could try and attribute it to the last two winters making folks gunshy, but... Yeah this has been happening before that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 5-8" sounds about right for GTA, YYZ will probably say something like 2.1" but realistically there will be better measurements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I wonder if there's a way to aggregate and then average all the climo data in a particular geographical region to get a "wintry quotient" or something. Problem with comparing big cities is that while they're generally the population center of a region they're not always the climatological center. I don't think of Boston as an exemplar of SNE's climate anymore than I think of Chicago as an exemplar of the Great Lake's climate. The metric I like in addition to temperature, snowfall, and snow cover days, is snow depth days...basically the snow depth x days of snowcover..someone put this together out west.. If you put together a two value component index with a percentile rank of temperature and percentile rank of snow depth days I think that would give a meaningful index to compare... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 My preliminary call is 4-6" for Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I take the NAM with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well for most in MI and SSC backyard the GFS is not much different. A tad more QPF in se part of state but that is it. The bigger difference is back towards SE WI/N.IL/IA etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well for most in MI and SSC backyard the GFS is not much different. A tad more QPF in se part of state but that is it. The bigger difference is back towards SE WI/N.IL/IA etc.. Josh model bonus QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I take the NAM with a grain of salt. +1 NAM is probably over doing the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well for most in MI and SSC backyard the GFS is not much different. A tad more QPF in se part of state but that is it. The bigger difference is back towards SE WI/N.IL/IA etc.. Actually noticed some slight difference in GFS QPF via NCEP page and InstantWeatherMaps. InstantWeathermaps sugesting 10-12" here (actually what the Euro had). Should have a WSW up here tomorrow morning if nothing drastically chages with the Euro. Hoping it's a little more south for you and SSC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I seem to been missing a lot of the systems this winter, Although I'm in Michigan I am also way out of any "lake effect" area. So, I'm crossing my fingers on this one for Thursday. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Josh model bonus QPF Yep.. Considering what the models had been showing a few days back ( mostly rain ) this is a improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Pretty sweet run from the 00z GFS for SE WI, looks pretty similar to the 12z run but with more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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