snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Wow...interesting. Is this all snow for S. Ontario?? If so, looking like 10-20cm for Hamilton-Toronto. Didn't see this coming. I assumed winter was done, like many other folks. Lol Should be all snow. Maybe some mixing issues right along Lake Erie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 KMOP anyone? Maybe we could get some text lists going soon give the widespread impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Should be all snow. Maybe some mixing issues right along Lake Erie? fantastic! I saw 15cm on TWN app today and just dismissed it like I have the last 17 times it's predcited 15+ cm several days out. haha. Nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Wow...interesting. Is this all snow for S. Ontario?? If so, looking like 10-20cm for Hamilton-Toronto. Didn't see this coming. I assumed winter was done, like many other folks. Lol Euro text output for YYZ: THU 12Z 07-FEB -7.8 -11.3 1030 72 97 0.01 548 525 THU 18Z 07-FEB -5.5 -8.9 1028 73 98 0.04 549 528 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -5.6 -6.6 1024 81 79 0.07 548 530 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -4.8 -5.8 1018 83 91 0.05 545 530 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -8.4 -8.3 1016 87 99 0.43 540 528 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -8.2 -10.8 1021 75 95 0.18 536 521 SAT 00Z 09-FEB -8.7 -12.0 1025 70 7 0.01 538 519 SAT 06Z 09-FEB -14.2 -12.0 1028 79 21 0.00 540 519 0.79" QPF Looks like we finally may cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 KMOP anyone? Maybe we could get some text lists going soon give the widespread impact? Yeah, that sounds great. The Thursday storm looks good for much of lower Michigan, especially from Muskegon and northward. The Canadian shows quite a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah, that sounds great. The Thursday storm looks good for much of lower Michigan, especially from Muskegon and northward. The Canadian shows quite a bit of snow. I second that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro text output for YYZ: THU 12Z 07-FEB -7.8 -11.3 1030 72 97 0.01 548 525 THU 18Z 07-FEB -5.5 -8.9 1028 73 98 0.04 549 528 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -5.6 -6.6 1024 81 79 0.07 548 530 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -4.8 -5.8 1018 83 91 0.05 545 530 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -8.4 -8.3 1016 87 99 0.43 540 528 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -8.2 -10.8 1021 75 95 0.18 536 521 SAT 00Z 09-FEB -8.7 -12.0 1025 70 7 0.01 538 519 SAT 06Z 09-FEB -14.2 -12.0 1028 79 21 0.00 540 519 0.79" QPF Looks like we finally may cash in. No need to worry about whiffing. It's gonna snow. Just got to pin down amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 No need to worry about whiffing. It's gonna snow. Just got to pin down amounts. Also no worries on precip robbing? I remenber the DEc 27th storm had that worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Also no worries on precip robbing? I remenber the DEc 27th storm had that worry. precip robbing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 KMOP anyone? Maybe we could get some text lists going soon give the widespread impact? No man, they only post text lists when Chicago is included in the storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Did I see the Euro saying about 1" of QPF for GRR and all of it snow? Is that real? If so, wow, that would be the icing on the cake of an amazing two weeks of LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 precip robbing? Remember when the coastal low was going to develop and would take a lot of the energy from the Primary storm? That's what I meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 chances of the NAM throwing out some total weenie solutions over the next couple runs? 95%+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Did I see the Euro saying about 1" of QPF for GRR and all of it snow? Is that real? If so, wow, that would be the icing on the cake of an amazing two weeks of LES. EURO has the Grand Rapids metro area at over 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 chances of the NAM throwing out some total weenie solutions over the next couple runs? 95%+? 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 100% Probably have one in about 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can I get QPF output for TVC. I head up there sometime tomorrow?? anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Remember when the coastal low was going to develop and would take a lot of the energy from the Primary storm? That's what I meant In this case, the coastal really won't start firing until the northern stream storm is already east of us. I think we'll be ok in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Bonus odds: chances the NAM is useless with this event...80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Bonus odds: chances the NAM is useless with this event...80%. Since useless is a pretty strong word, I'll go with 50%. It might point out the places where dry air will be difficult to overcome, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 LOL at the GGEM. Over .5 QPF here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I am going with .9" snow with mix bag as well for Thursday for ORD, could be a situation where they get he mix bag and the border gets 4-6" of cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'd do this myself, but I'm not sure how to...anyone gonna post the model runs over the next couple days as they come in? Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'd do this myself, but I'm not sure how to...anyone gonna post the model runs over the next couple days as they come in? Cheers If you're looking for frame by frame posting, that's not going to happen. There is going to be description and analysis though I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I know it isn't here, but if the Euro verified for Boston, would be a historic hit, over 2.50" liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I know it isn't here, but if the Euro verified for Boston, would be a historic hit, over 2.50" liquid equivalent. Around 3.5" QPF was the bull's eye in E. Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I know it isn't here, but if the Euro verified for Boston, would be a historic hit, over 2.50" liquid equivalent. GFS only gave them 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Around 3.5" QPF was the bull's eye in E. Mass Storms like this make the non belt GL/OV v. SNE who gets better winters debate seem ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 12z Euro and 12z Euro ensemble mean at 12z Thursday. Riding the rail in N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Storms like this make the non belt GL/OV v. SNE who gets better winters debate seem ridiculous of course, they own by a longshot. anyways, LOT EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND AN INVERTED TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW A RANGE OF PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE CWA. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING LOOKS TO PROVIDE COOLER PROFILES AT ONSET ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST DETAILS. AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A RANGE OF MAGNITUDES FOR THE EXPECTED WARM LAYER ALOFT BUT BASED ON TRENDS SEEN TODAY AND OVER PREVIOUS DAYS AS WELL AS ACCOUNTING FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IT SEEMS THAT SLEET/SNOW MAY BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE FOR NORTHERN AREAS...ROUGHLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH FREEZING RAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR A TIME IF WARMER PROFILES WIN OUT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER DOWN LOW SUGGESTING FULL MELTING OF FALLING PRECIP WITH SURFACE TEMPS BEING THE KEY BETWEEN RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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