L.B. LaForce Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 10km WRF-ARW Run initialized with 06 hour RAP (3 hour Forecast) and 00 Z NAM Boundary conditions afterwards. Precip scale is the same as HPC, and contours are every .50". KMOP shows around 0.92" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's a sheet of ice across Kenosha...going to be interesting when parents pick up their kiddies today. Always fun to compete for attention with snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not sure why they made that distinction. They're forecast similar amounts comparing Toronto to the western suburbs. Maybe they think stronger winds on a NE flow tomorrow? Maybe this? The 00z GFS suggests the possibility of some heavier snow bands in WNY around 12z Friday, with pretty good 850 mb frontogenesis and some negative EPV. The SUNY mm5 shows high reflectivity several hours later over the same areas of WNY. The mm5 page doesn't have any 850 mb frontogenesis parameter but it does show some weak frontogenesis at 700 mb. It does look like some areas may get signficiant banded precipitation, but it is too early to tell exactly where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 In Racine, I have class later in the afternoon but I was hoping it would be canceled lol. Looking at the radar makes me think MKE south is the place to be SREF has been on that trend. Looks to have started as freezing rain but hard to tell with light rain falling on snow whether it is freezing on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREF has been on that trend. Looks to have started as freezing rain but hard to tell with light rain falling on snow whether it is freezing on contact. mke is reporting light snow... Not sure how accurate these are but it looks like the column is close to being completely below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 34 and rain here. Picked up 0.21" so far. I'll go with 13.9" for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Good luck to all Lakes posters in line for a dump from this storm. Especially the ones from Toronto. You've been waiting a long time, so hopefully this one delivers as the models have projected it will. Now if somewhow we can get a nice storm for LAFand CHI guys, maybe this Winter wouldn't be such a total loss for a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 IWX is buying that 00z NMM run. They're going with 3-5" of snow for their Michigan counties. That said, the trends in SE Wisconsin aren't all that encouraging. Also, it's awfully toasty this morning at 28*F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's trying hard to change over to purely snow. Looks like a sleet/snow mix now primarily as rates are ramping up. Edit: now almost entirely snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 always stronger than anticipated. Sometimes it's weaker than anticipated if the snow pack is in good shape like right now. SPC analysis shows 925 mb temps over Madison and Chicago are +2 C and rising while 850 is near 0 C. All of the melting is happening in the lowest 1.5 km of the atmosphere, and even in that layer there's another layer of below freezing low level cold air. 34 F at the sfc and 31 F on top of the met building, and then it warms up again by the time you get to 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Up to 36 downtown...looks like we'll make a run at 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 IWX is buying that 00z NMM run. They're going with 3-5" of snow for their Michigan counties. That said, the trends in SE Wisconsin aren't all that encouraging. Also, it's awfully toasty this morning at 28*F. Looking at the radar trends, I'd expect DTX to go with a warning for Wayne county. At least for the extreme northern part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sometimes it's weaker than anticipated if the snow pack is in good shape like right now. SPC analysis shows 925 mb temps over Madison and Chicago are +2 C and rising while 850 is near 0 C. All of the melting is happening in the lowest 1.5 km of the atmosphere. I understand but the lowest 1.5 km (at least down here) isn't even marginal...it's very warm. Much better situation up there but anyone who gets stuck under poor returns or screwholes is going to have high bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Actually light snow in Naperville at the moment with maybe some raindrops mixed in. 32 or 33 degrees. Light ice/slush accumulation. Untreated roads and sidewalks are slippery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Actually light snow in Naperville at the moment with maybe some raindrops mixed in. 32 or 33 degrees. Light ice/slush accumulation. Untreated roads and sidewalks are slippery. Must be some urban/lake warmth in the lower levels...even the better returns (30-35 dbz) on the northside were mostly plain rain with maybe a little zr before 5 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not sure why they made that distinction. They're forecast similar amounts comparing Toronto to the western suburbs. Maybe they think stronger winds on a NE flow tomorrow? I was wondering the same thing. Jill Taylor on 680 said a few minutes ago that 25cm in 12 hours is possible as opposed to 15+ in 12 hours for the snowfall warning areas. Not sure if that's how EC actually issues their warnings. And even so, models don't support this sharp distinction in the GTA. Everyone seems in the game for the possibility of 25 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tim's gonna win the YYZ contest. Don't buy the model hype guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I was wondering the same thing. Jill Taylor on 680 said a few minutes ago that 25cm in 12 hours is possible as opposed to 15+ in 12 hours for the snowfall warning areas. Not sure if that's how EC actually issues their warnings. And even so, models don't support this sharp distinction in the GTA. Everyone seems in the game for the possibility of 25 or more. The amounts for Hamilton and Toronto are exactly the same per the 5am forecast. Don't matter though. I stopped getting bogged down in trying to understand how EC rationalizes a long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tim's gonna win the YYZ contest. Don't buy the model hype guys. Put me down for 12.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nevermind it's mostly sleet, that familiar pinging sound gives it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tim's gonna win the YYZ contest. Don't buy the model hype guys. Let go, disarm your defense mechanisms and enjoy this..... You're gonna be slammed. you'll be middleaged before it happens again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd be real concern I-94 South. Mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nevermind it's mostly sleet, that familiar pinging sound gives it away. your returns are still showery...should improve and flip to snow in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The amounts for Hamilton and Toronto are exactly the same per the 5am forecast. Don't matter though. I stopped getting bogged down in trying to understand how EC rationalizes a long time ago. Lol. So true. Haven't seen this posted yet, but overnight 00Z Euro paints 25-30 for the entire Golden Horseshoe almost as far inland as KW-Vaughan and right around the QEW to Niagara. Ditto for GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd be real concern I-94 South. Mixing issues No s**t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Switched over to snow in Elmhurst. Wet ones but not too fat. Will it last . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No s**t actually There might be a concern as far north as 59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nevermind it's mostly sleet, that familiar pinging sound gives it away. All Snow here.. MKE reporting -SN as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Switched over to snow in Elmhurst. Wet ones but not too fat. Will it last . . . odd to see these snow reports from NE IL in areas under weak returns...not sure what to make of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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