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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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Not sure why they made that distinction. They're forecast similar amounts comparing Toronto to the western suburbs. Maybe they think stronger winds on a NE flow tomorrow?

 

Maybe this?

 

 

The 00z GFS suggests the possibility of some heavier snow bands in WNY around 12z Friday, with pretty good 850 mb frontogenesis and some negative EPV.

 

FRNT850gfs212F36.png

 

The SUNY mm5 shows high reflectivity several hours later over the same areas of WNY.

 

700fr.42.0000.gif

 

The mm5 page doesn't have any 850 mb frontogenesis parameter but it does show some weak frontogenesis at 700 mb. It does look like some areas may get signficiant banded precipitation, but it is too early to tell exactly where.

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In Racine, I have class later in the afternoon but I was hoping it would be canceled lol. Looking at the radar makes me think MKE south is the place to be

 

SREF has been on that trend.  Looks to have started as freezing rain but hard to tell with light rain falling on snow whether it is freezing on contact.

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SREF has been on that trend.  Looks to have started as freezing rain but hard to tell with light rain falling on snow whether it is freezing on contact.

 

mke is reporting light snow...

 

 

Not sure how accurate these are but it looks like the column is close to being completely below freezing.

 

925mb.gif

 

 

850mb.gif

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Good luck to all Lakes posters in line for a dump from this storm.  Especially the ones from Toronto.  You've been waiting a long time, so hopefully this one delivers as the models have projected it will.

Now if somewhow we can get a nice storm for LAFand CHI guys, maybe this Winter wouldn't be such a total loss for a lot.

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always stronger than anticipated.

Sometimes it's weaker than anticipated if the snow pack is in good shape like right now. SPC analysis shows 925 mb temps over Madison and Chicago are +2 C and rising while 850 is near 0 C. All of the melting is happening in the lowest 1.5 km of the atmosphere, and even in that layer there's another layer of below freezing low level cold air. 34 F at the sfc and 31 F on top of the met building, and then it warms up again by the time you get to 925.

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IWX is buying that 00z NMM run.

 

They're going with 3-5" of snow for their Michigan counties.

 

That said, the trends in SE Wisconsin aren't all that encouraging. Also, it's awfully toasty this morning at 28*F.

Looking at the radar trends, I'd expect DTX to go with a warning for Wayne county. At least for the extreme northern part of it.

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Sometimes it's weaker than anticipated if the snow pack is in good shape like right now. SPC analysis shows 925 mb temps over Madison and Chicago are +2 C and rising while 850 is near 0 C. All of the melting is happening in the lowest 1.5 km of the atmosphere.

 

I understand but the lowest 1.5 km (at least down here) isn't even marginal...it's very warm.  Much better situation up there but anyone who gets stuck under poor returns or screwholes is going to have high bust potential.

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Actually light snow in Naperville at the moment with maybe some raindrops mixed in. 32 or 33 degrees. Light ice/slush accumulation. Untreated roads and sidewalks are slippery.

 

Must be some urban/lake warmth in the lower levels...even the better returns (30-35 dbz) on the northside were mostly plain rain with maybe a little zr before 5 am

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Not sure why they made that distinction. They're forecast similar amounts comparing Toronto to the western suburbs. Maybe they think stronger winds on a NE flow tomorrow?

I was wondering the same thing. Jill Taylor on 680 said a few minutes ago that 25cm in 12 hours is possible as opposed to 15+ in 12 hours for the snowfall warning areas.  Not sure if that's how EC actually issues their warnings. And even so, models don't support this sharp distinction in the GTA.  Everyone seems in the game for the possibility of 25 or more.

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I was wondering the same thing. Jill Taylor on 680 said a few minutes ago that 25cm in 12 hours is possible as opposed to 15+ in 12 hours for the snowfall warning areas.  Not sure if that's how EC actually issues their warnings. And even so, models don't support this sharp distinction in the GTA.  Everyone seems in the game for the possibility of 25 or more.

 

The amounts for Hamilton and Toronto are exactly the same per the 5am forecast. Don't matter though. I stopped getting bogged down in trying to understand how EC rationalizes a long time ago.

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The amounts for Hamilton and Toronto are exactly the same per the 5am forecast. Don't matter though. I stopped getting bogged down in trying to understand how EC rationalizes a long time ago.

Lol. So true.

Haven't seen this posted yet, but overnight 00Z Euro paints 25-30 for the entire Golden Horseshoe almost as far inland as KW-Vaughan and right around the QEW to Niagara. Ditto for GEM.

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