Ajdos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/COMPRAD4_0z/rad35.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/COMPRAD4_0z/rad35.html Totals around here and over to the thumb would be around a foot. I like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 For the crowd west of Lake MI: another model agreeing with all the other ones, is the GGEM. Just need the EURO to agree as well. Mix to all snow for SE WI and NE IL. This one is for you peeps around GRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 00z GFS has 0.65" qpf for MKE and 0.75" qpf for ENW, all snow for each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 00z GFS has 0.65" qpf for MKE and 0.75" qpf for ENW, all snow for each. How come the snow map shows 4" or so for both? 6:1 ratios I guess lol. If anything I thought the snow map would be more bullish or ish than the actual output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro QPF anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z ECMWF text list LSE: THU 18Z 07-FEB 0.6 -3.0 1018 89 77 0.03 548 534 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -1.4 -6.3 1020 89 79 0.07 543 527 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -4.6 -8.6 1024 87 43 0.02 543 524 CID: THU 12Z 07-FEB 2.2 2.8 1015 92 99 0.05 555 543 THU 18Z 07-FEB 1.7 -0.1 1015 99 98 0.35 553 541 FRI 00Z 08-FEB 1.1 -3.1 1018 95 51 0.10 546 532 DVN: THU 12Z 07-FEB 1.7 2.5 1016 89 97 0.11 556 543 THU 18Z 07-FEB 2.3 -0.2 1015 95 99 0.29 554 542 FRI 00Z 08-FEB 0.8 -1.5 1016 97 91 0.19 548 536 MSN: THU 06Z 07-FEB 0.0 0.7 1019 83 100 0.02 553 538 THU 12Z 07-FEB -0.3 -0.1 1018 89 96 0.05 552 538 THU 18Z 07-FEB -0.5 -2.4 1017 94 99 0.24 551 537 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -0.7 -5.7 1017 96 97 0.33 545 532 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -3.3 -7.3 1021 87 80 0.11 541 525 MKE: THU 06Z 07-FEB 0.1 0.6 1021 83 99 0.01 553 537 THU 12Z 07-FEB -0.1 -0.6 1019 85 92 0.02 553 538 THU 18Z 07-FEB 0.2 -2.1 1018 91 98 0.17 552 538 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -0.3 -6.1 1016 96 98 0.49 547 534 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -1.0 -7.5 1018 90 94 0.18 541 527 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -3.3 -8.7 1023 82 24 0.04 542 524 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -2.4 -7.3 1028 71 27 0.01 548 525 RAC: THU 06Z 07-FEB 0.1 1.1 1021 81 96 0.01 554 537 THU 12Z 07-FEB 0.2 -0.3 1019 83 93 0.01 553 538 THU 18Z 07-FEB 0.3 -1.8 1017 92 99 0.16 552 538 FRI 00Z 08-FEB 0.0 -5.5 1015 96 98 0.48 547 535 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -0.7 -7.3 1017 90 94 0.17 541 527 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -2.6 -8.7 1023 81 27 0.04 542 524 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -2.1 -7.3 1028 72 25 0.01 548 526 RFD: THU 12Z 07-FEB -0.3 1.8 1018 84 94 0.01 555 540 THU 18Z 07-FEB 0.4 -0.7 1016 94 100 0.20 553 540 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -0.2 -4.2 1015 97 97 0.36 548 536 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -1.1 -5.7 1019 89 80 0.07 542 527 DKB: THU 12Z 07-FEB -0.5 1.9 1019 81 96 0.01 555 540 THU 18Z 07-FEB 0.9 0.1 1016 91 100 0.19 554 541 FRI 00Z 08-FEB 0.0 -3.5 1014 98 97 0.36 549 538 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -1.0 -5.4 1018 89 87 0.07 542 528 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -4.4 -6.1 1024 84 34 0.01 545 526 DPA: THU 18Z 07-FEB 1.2 0.3 1016 87 99 0.15 554 541 FRI 00Z 08-FEB 0.1 -3.1 1014 98 99 0.36 550 538 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -0.8 -5.7 1017 90 91 0.08 542 528 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -3.3 -6.4 1023 85 35 0.02 544 526 UGN: THU 18Z 07-FEB 0.4 -1.0 1017 91 100 0.14 553 539 FRI 00Z 08-FEB 0.2 -4.4 1014 98 99 0.45 548 537 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -0.7 -6.8 1017 90 93 0.14 541 528 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -2.5 -8.2 1022 83 32 0.04 543 525 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -1.5 -7.1 1028 71 25 0.01 549 527 ORD: THU 18Z 07-FEB 1.1 0.1 1016 86 99 0.09 554 541 FRI 00Z 08-FEB 0.3 -2.9 1014 98 100 0.34 550 539 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -0.5 -6.1 1016 89 92 0.10 542 529 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -2.0 -7.3 1022 83 39 0.03 543 526 MDW: THU 18Z 07-FEB 2.3 1.1 1016 78 94 0.10 554 541 FRI 00Z 08-FEB 0.7 -2.0 1014 98 99 0.23 550 540 FRI 06Z 08-FEB 0.0 -5.8 1016 89 89 0.12 543 530 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -1.0 -7.4 1021 82 45 0.03 543 526 VPZ: FRI 00Z 08-FEB 3.1 -1.0 1012 85 100 0.02 552 542 FRI 06Z 08-FEB 0.5 -5.1 1014 96 65 0.21 545 534 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -0.7 -7.2 1019 84 60 0.02 542 527 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -0.8 -6.5 1026 72 16 0.01 549 528 LAF: FRI 06Z 08-FEB 2.2 -1.6 1014 94 76 0.12 550 539 OKK: FRI 06Z 08-FEB 2.8 -0.6 1012 96 91 0.08 550 541 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -0.1 -5.5 1017 86 62 0.01 543 529 FWA: FRI 06Z 08-FEB 3.5 0.1 1010 95 98 0.05 550 541 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -1.4 -6.1 1016 88 57 0.03 541 529 MKG: THU 06Z 07-FEB -2.3 -2.3 1023 81 100 0.01 552 534 THU 12Z 07-FEB -2.2 -1.9 1021 80 96 0.01 552 536 THU 18Z 07-FEB -0.7 -3.0 1019 83 99 0.07 552 537 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -1.1 -5.2 1016 92 100 0.39 548 535 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -1.6 -6.8 1016 89 98 0.30 541 529 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -2.9 -8.6 1020 81 78 0.06 540 524 GRR: THU 18Z 07-FEB -0.6 -2.3 1020 76 100 0.02 553 537 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -0.7 -3.2 1015 87 98 0.15 549 537 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -2.3 -4.9 1014 91 99 0.28 543 532 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -3.2 -8.2 1019 84 91 0.10 539 524 BTL: FRI 00Z 08-FEB 0.0 -0.3 1015 81 87 0.01 551 539 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -1.9 -2.9 1012 92 97 0.22 545 535 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -3.1 -8.1 1017 88 92 0.09 539 525 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -3.4 -7.4 1024 69 17 0.01 543 524 PTK: FRI 06Z 08-FEB -2.3 -2.0 1013 86 100 0.07 547 536 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -3.4 -6.3 1014 89 99 0.28 539 528 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -3.7 -8.2 1021 73 84 0.06 540 524 DET: FRI 06Z 08-FEB -1.5 -0.9 1013 85 99 0.03 548 538 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -2.3 -4.7 1012 91 93 0.30 541 532 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -3.1 -7.8 1019 74 90 0.07 539 524 DTW: FRI 06Z 08-FEB -1.2 -0.6 1012 87 99 0.03 548 539 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -2.5 -4.9 1012 90 91 0.23 541 531 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -3.0 -7.3 1020 73 84 0.05 540 525 TOL: FRI 06Z 08-FEB 0.9 0.9 1010 87 99 0.03 550 542 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -1.8 -4.8 1013 90 71 0.14 541 531 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -2.7 -6.2 1020 75 78 0.03 541 525 CLE: FRI 12Z 08-FEB 3.4 -1.0 1009 94 99 0.18 547 539 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -3.8 -6.9 1015 86 94 0.13 538 526 SAT 00Z 09-FEB -5.3 -9.8 1024 81 25 0.04 540 522 SAT 06Z 09-FEB -6.7 -9.3 1027 80 6 0.01 545 524 YKF: THU 12Z 07-FEB -7.7 -9.5 1029 76 95 0.02 550 527 THU 18Z 07-FEB -2.4 -6.3 1026 60 99 0.01 551 530 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -5.3 -4.1 1023 85 88 0.03 550 532 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -3.9 -3.9 1018 89 78 0.02 547 533 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -6.9 -6.0 1015 89 100 0.33 544 532 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -8.3 -7.8 1017 80 100 0.43 539 526 SAT 00Z 09-FEB -9.6 -9.6 1022 77 93 0.09 538 521 YYZ: THU 12Z 07-FEB -6.3 -11.4 1029 75 97 0.02 548 526 THU 18Z 07-FEB -3.6 -8.6 1028 70 94 0.01 550 529 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -4.5 -5.7 1025 82 99 0.04 550 531 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -3.6 -5.3 1020 81 74 0.05 547 532 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -5.4 -6.6 1016 90 100 0.24 544 532 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -8.1 -7.8 1017 84 99 0.53 540 526 SAT 00Z 09-FEB -8.6 -10.1 1022 79 97 0.17 538 521 SAT 06Z 09-FEB -11.1 -10.7 1025 82 9 0.02 540 521 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 00z GFS has 0.65" qpf for MKE and 0.75" qpf for ENW, all snow for each. 6-7:1 ratio for ENW then. If it's showing about 4". Now if that was the GFS Skilling was showing, then it would be more like 8:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Do you mind doing KMOP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How come the snow map shows 4" or so for both? 6:1 ratios I guess lol. If anything I thought the snow map would be more bullish or ish than the actual output. Not really sure, I am going with 9:1-10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So basically further north more snow..94-696 2-4" 696-m59 4-8"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Do you mind doing KMOP? I thought I forgot one... MOP: THU 06Z 07-FEB -3.8 -5.1 1025 80 100 0.03 550 531 THU 12Z 07-FEB -4.1 -3.7 1023 80 100 0.05 551 532 THU 18Z 07-FEB -1.6 -4.5 1021 72 99 0.03 551 534 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -2.1 -4.9 1018 92 100 0.27 548 534 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -3.0 -6.4 1016 92 100 0.32 542 530 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -5.1 -8.4 1020 83 97 0.15 538 523 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -4.7 -9.1 1025 67 13 0.01 541 522 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not really sure, I am going with 9:1-10:1 ratios. Well, that's what MKX thought, with more like 11:1 in the northern part of the CWA, and 8:1 in the southern portion. If that's the average ratio, then the Euro, since it should be basically all snow, would equate to about 8.5 or 9". However, the Euro is already a degree or two warm with 2m temps most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I thought I forgot one... MOP: THU 06Z 07-FEB -3.8 -5.1 1025 80 100 0.03 550 531 THU 12Z 07-FEB -4.1 -3.7 1023 80 100 0.05 551 532 THU 18Z 07-FEB -1.6 -4.5 1021 72 99 0.03 551 534 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -2.1 -4.9 1018 92 100 0.27 548 534 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -3.0 -6.4 1016 92 100 0.32 542 530 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -5.1 -8.4 1020 83 97 0.15 538 523 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -4.7 -9.1 1025 67 13 0.01 541 522 Thanks, much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just to piss off Mr. Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So basically further north more snow..94-696 2-4" 696-m59 4-8"... I'd say south of 94 2-4. 94 to 8 mile 4-7. North of 8 mile 7-9. North of 59 9+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That 00z NMM run will probably be the ceiling for Detroit. 1"+ QPF, mostly snow (I'm right on the border of the snow/mix line for the first hour). Tight tempoerature gradient to on that run too. From -3*C at 850mb in Jackson to 3*C at 850mb in Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just to piss off Mr. Torch acsnw_sfc_f24.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd say south of 94 2-4. 94 to 8 mile 4-7. North of 8 mile 7-9. North of 59 9+. 3-5 to 96/m-14 5-7 from there to M-59 and 7-11" North of there into the thumb with lollipops to 14" in Saginaw Valley. Near the Ohio border might be 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NMM precip loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 1-3" is my call for a good chunk of the 94 corridor... Hoping this system has some surprises, but won't hold my breath at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 1-3" is my call for a good chunk of the 94 corridor... Hoping this system has some surprises, but won't hold my breath at this point! Realllyyy low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Realllyyy low. Seriously what is with this new breed of MI posters that low ball every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 YYZ plumes mean for the last 2 runs are 17 and 18". This could really come together for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 YYZ plumes mean for the last 2 runs are 17 and 18". This could really come together for Toronto. That's up there with their biggest of all time...I'd love to see the expression on ssc's face when he sees that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM has a sharp cut off on the Southern end due to mixing but it goes from an inch or so at the border to near 7" for the city. The 12" band is much wider this run through the Saginaw Valley. Definitely a shift South on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 YYZ plumes mean for the last 2 runs are 17 and 18". This could really come together for Toronto. 21z SREF plumes all but a few have >2" at ORD with the mean at 4" this off the 3z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 21z SREF plumes all but a few have >2" at ORD with the mean at 4" this off the 3z run SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f027.gif Mr Torch won't approve, he will need to turn up the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM also drops near 20" for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Seriously what is with this new breed of MI posters that low ball every storm. Think this is bad? Check out the forecast for the west side of Lansing. Mind you there is a warning there. This is via point and click. Had showed around 8 inches till 93 came on. Totals here were cut from 5 to 2 and or what 93 had yesterday. Today Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 33. South southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight Snow. Low around 25. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches. Eaton County zone has 2-4.. I have seen some epic low balling from 93 at GRR before though. 93 always low balls totals se of Grand Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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