Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I didn't hear what Skilling said - Whether it was the RPM or the GFS. The GFS weenie map posted had the NE IL bullseye a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Might as well lower Madison and Milwaukee. Our local Fox 6 affiliate Skyvision Plus shows much less precip than many of the other models, and nearly nothing in Madison. What it does show in Madison is mixy or light snow. Could be kooky, but if it is right, it is unbelievable how the trends of this storm have changed. If the UK, GEM and Euro don't throw a curveball, I won't worry so much. Lower my call based off a TV station model? Come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tom Brown of local CTV has redeemed himself. Now calling for the potential of a foot of snow in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lower my call based off a TV station model? Come on. Let's see, the NAM and GFS are calling for 3-5" at best, other models seem to be shifting SE, therefore taking the higher QPF out of those regions. Unless the UK, GEM and Euro hang strong with healthy precip that far back, it seems fair to lower totals. Then again, sometimes the short range timing does seem to shift storms SE and they still end up NW versus the projection, so this could just be some false SE movements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ^Need some MI calls in there Battle Creek: 3.5" Detroit: 3.0" Grand Rapids: 6.8" Muskegon: 8.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lower my call based off a TV station model? Come on. What's your call for the QC? RGEM actually threw us a bone and gave us a couple quick inches of cement tomorrow afternoon. It's all alone, and it's the RGEM, so I aint buying it. Kind of makes you wonder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DISCUSSION947 PM CSTVERY TRICKY FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAMSHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BEFORE HEADING TO JOINUP WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OFF THE EAST COAST RESULTING IN ANIMPRESSIVE NOR'EASTER.WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING IS FORECASTTO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY BEFORETRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANDTHEN INTO INDIANA THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THEREGION HAVE BEEN ADVECTING MILDER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS NORTHINTO THE REGION AND WHEN COMBINED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESSSHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE OVERNIGHT. MODELGUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN RUNNING TOO COLD WITH THERMAL PROFILESIN THE LOW LEVELS...LIKELY DUE IN LARGE PART TO ISSUES WITHBOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND SNOW COVER. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE WARMAIR ADVECTION UNTIL SURFACE LOW PASSES EAST INTO INDIANA AND WINDSTURN NORTHERLY LATE THURS PM INTO THURSDAY EVENING AND EVEN THENTHE COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEESOME WET BULBING LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING INA SLIGHT DROP IN SURFACE TEMPS...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OFTHE PRECIP SHOULD FALL INTO ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS WITH THISEVENT.STARTING TO SEE PRECIP/CONVECTION BREAK OUT FROM NE KS EAST ACROSSSOUTHERN IOWA LATE THIS EVENING. WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TOCONTINUE TO EXPAND AND DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA WELL AFTERMIDNIGHT. INITIAL P-TYPE WILL BE QUITE TRICKY WITH SOME LIGHTSLEET/SNOW/RAIN SEEMINGLY THE MOST PROBABLE PRECIP TYPE BEFORETRANSITIONING OVER TO RAIN AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CERTAINLYCOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT WITH SFC TEMPSLIKELY TO BE VERY NEAR FREEZING NOT ANTICIPATING ANY BIG TRAVELPROBLEMS.HUGE DILEMMA THIS EVENING WAS WHAT TO DO WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCHFOR LAKE/MCHENRY COUNTIES. SEEMS THE CHANCES OF REACHING ANYTHINGCLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA WAS VERY LOW SO REALLY DID NOT THINKLEAVING A WATCH IN EFFECT WAS SENDING THE RIGHT MESSAGE. COULD BESOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUTDOESNT LOOK LIKE THAT WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT WORTHY OF AHEADLINE. NOW ITS PLAUSIBLE THAT COLUMN COULD COOL ENOUGH FOR ACHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW LATE AS EARLY AS LATE THURS AFTERNOON BUTMORE LIKELY INTO THURSDAY EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.TIMING OF CHANGE TO WET SNOW IS TRICKY AND SURFACE TEMPS COULDLINGER JUST ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE SNOW INITIALLY WHICH WOULDLIMIT THE ACCUMULATION TIME AND CUT DOWN ON TOTALS. BESTACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE A COUPLE TOMAYBE A FEW INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.WOULD APPEAR THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE SHORT OF WHAT ISTYPICALLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WITH A WATCH ALREADY OUT WASHESITANT TO GO DOWN TO NO HEADLINE...PARTICULARLY WITH THEPOTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF DECENT SNOW. POSSIBLE THAT AREASFARTHER WEST TOWARD ROCKFORD COULD GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TOOBUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO HEADLINES OUT ALREADY DECIDED TO NOTEXPAND THE HEADLINED AREA ANY FARTHER AT THIS TIME.IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tom Brown of local CTV has redeemed himself. Now calling for the potential of a foot of snow in Toronto. Must have heard us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Let's see, the NAM and GFS are calling for 3-5" at best, other models seem to be shifting SE, therefore taking the higher QPF out of those regions. Unless the UK, GEM and Euro hang strong with healthy precip that far back, it seems fair to lower totals. Then again, sometimes the short range timing does seem to shift storms SE and they still end up NW versus the projection, so this could just be some false SE movements. Both the NAM and GFS have 5+ inches here, there's not really too much to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The latest 0z RGEM looks mighty lol. Yeah thats a bold call, i agree It would certainly be the biggest storm no doubt since Dec 08 but if it exceeds 20cm then since March 08. What did toronto get in the March 08 storm? Ottawa saw 51cm in total from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Let's see, the NAM and GFS are calling for 3-5" at best, other models seem to be shifting SE, therefore taking the higher QPF out of those regions. Unless the UK, GEM and Euro hang strong with healthy precip that far back, it seems fair to lower totals. Then again, sometimes the short range timing does seem to shift storms SE and they still end up NW versus the projection, so this could just be some false SE movements. 0z NAM has 0.80" for MKE. 0z GFS has at least 0.50". You're reaching here. And I acknowledged my concern for MSN already, but will stick with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Battle Creek: 3.5" Detroit: 3.0" Grand Rapids: 6.8" Muskegon: 8.5" Ouch. Are you going on DTW (South of the city) or DET (City airport)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What's your call for the QC? RGEM actually threw us a bone and gave us a couple quick inches of cement tomorrow afternoon. It's all alone, and it's the RGEM, so I aint buying it. Kind of makes you wonder though. Saw that. I don't know. Ride the season trend...T? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Battle Creek: 3.5" Detroit: 3.0" Grand Rapids: 6.8" Muskegon: 8.5" You atleast know the drill here. Sadly it will make for the biggest snowstorm of the winter here should that 3.5" verify. I'll be honest for a moment here. Besides the lower QPF on models the 850mb low track has shifted a bit south as well. Typically the best snows etc fall near/just nw of that. Earlier runs took that across the mid part of this state. Something to watch for. One thing for sure is models are still in catch up mode. Thus this is likely to surprise a few with some good and some bad. Hard to say where that will be as is usually the case with developing systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Both the NAM and GFS both have 5+ inches here, there's not really too much to worry about. Maybe you're right, anyways my call this evening that I told people who asked was 3-5". I'm going to say 3.2". Btw, the GFS looked like 3-4" on the map that was posted, which is part of why I'm pessimistic. I also expect dry air to be a ***** initially so I don't buy the model run QPF anyway. I really wish I did, but dry air has won the battle at times recently, granted in moisture starved events to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ouch. Are you going on DTW (South of the city) or DET (City airport)? DTW I think that call is pretty consistent with the modeled QPF right now. Plus, there could be mixing issues. Eh, call it conservative if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Saw that. I don't know. Ride the season trend...T? Haha, lock it in. Not really wintry or anything, but the system is starting to rev up already, with some convective looking showers firing over southern IA into western IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What did toronto get in the March 08 storm? Ottawa saw 51cm in total from that storm. 9.4" (23.9 cm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z UK still brings 0.50"+ amounts to MSN and MKE. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&type=PR〈=en&map=na'>http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&type=PR〈=en&map=na Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DTW I think that call is pretty consistent with the modeled QPF right now. Plus, there could be mixing issues. Eh, call it conservative if you will. meh.. Josh will find a way to out snow here so i would go atleast 4 there. Unless i make a quick trip and go and steal his snow magnet. brb.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DTW I think that call is pretty consistent with the modeled QPF right now. Plus, there could be mixing issues. Eh, call it conservative if you will. Makes sense. There's going to be quite the gradient over the Detroit area.2-4 south of 94. Potentially 6-8 north of 8 mile. And 8+ possible north of 59. (Or even north of 696 east of 75 as the gradient seems to curve southeast over the extreme east side.) Decent call for DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 meh.. Josh will find a way to out snow here so i would go atleast 4 there. Unless i make a quick trip and go and steal his snow magnet. brb.....lol I forgot. Wyandotte: 4.8" Some how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z UK still brings 0.50"+ amounts to MSN and MKE. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&type=PR〈=en&map=na Nice, I'm hoping the NAM and GFS are just aberrations, tough to know though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Maybe you're right, anyways my call this evening that I told people who asked was 3-5". I'm going to say 3.2". GFS continues to show all snow through the event and the NAM has about .15" qpf not snow while the rest of the .55" is all snow. I think we are good here in MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 inflatedsnow.jpg Already inflated enough here. Things take a turn towards lunacy though along the St. Lawrence River. I can't seem to find that type of map on instantweathermaps.com. What category is it under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nice, I'm hoping the NAM and GFS are just aberrations, tough to know though. Like you were saying back a couple posts, those 2 models may have made a false SE move. Between all the snowfall maps posted; except the RGEM, there is good agreement on the west side of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nice, I'm hoping the NAM and GFS are just aberrations, tough to know though. You're putting on me, right? All the models have 0.50"+ for MKE. All of them that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You're putting on me, right? All the models have 0.50"+ for MKE. All of them that matter. Yep.. He has me a little confused as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 You're putting on me, right? All the models have 0.50"+ for MKE. All of them that matter. I guess I'm just a little bit uptight about this one. I feel like I have to do well here, because the potential storms for next week are likely to go both sides of the region (although the second one could well trend this direction). It's frustrating when even ensemble solutions seem locked in with 24-36 hours to go and then the OP or the Ensembles add more divergent solutions to the equation. I guess I should be used to it by now. With the temp around 32 or 33, I'm worried about losing a lot of our precip to either dry air or sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Jan 67 had a sh!tload of moisture to work with. Thus see the epic ice storm just to the south of here. The torch just prior to the blizzard probably helped out a bit as the GOM was wide open. Started out very briefly as a rn/sn mix believe it or not ( storm developed along a front that had ended the torch ) and then went straight heavy snow. Total QPF was 2.80" and thus almost straight 10-1 ratios. Keep in mind many from se WI/Chicago to Lansing saw 18+ and so it was widespread. The screwzone was the se part of the state who got a bit of ice from it and thus why the lower totals there in places like Detroit. The problem is just ramming gob loads of GOM moisture over a front tends to be more conducive to changing the heaviest precip over to sleet and ice. You also have to deal with the plague of moisture robbing warm-sector convection. I'd be really interested in knowing exactly how you pull off something like the 67'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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