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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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I was in Grade 13/OAC for those storms. Amazing. December was a torch until just before Christmas and then we had that January.

 

That Winter was amazing after December. February was nothing but then we had a good storm or two in March. 

 

Whats your thoughts on this storm?

 

I'm focusing on the Winds off Lake Ontario and we may get some LES in Toronto tomorrow but i dont expect anything big, less than 3cm, prior to the storm. Overall i'm going for 20cm atleast with 35cm as my highest. 

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Good to hear. 18z run looked a little arid.

GFS increased QPF again for Toronto. :)

What I find interesting, is that both the 0z GFS and NAM reduced totals for places like MSN and MKE...moreso MSN. That, after the 12z Euro went northwest with higher amounts.

Yes, there's been some lack of model agreement over here on the western fringe of the storm. 12Z Ukmet was giving Madison close to 1" QPF with Euro not far behind. 0Z NAM and GFS both showing ~0.4". We've had our share of snow here already so I'll take 3". Depth was still 6" this afternoon.
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So now both the NAM/GFS in close agreement for amounts in northeast IL. Both going to be wrong? And the RPM looked like both of these too. 3-5" along and north of 88.

 

So all the models vs the torch lovers Joe/Alek.

 

attachicon.gifUSA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_036.gif

 

He had the changeover time really late it seemed. 7pm I believe. GFS has it at noon! lol

 

Here was the snowfall map he showed.

 

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MKE got kind of jacked with Jan 1967, only 6.2". Must have been a rather sharp cut-off. That's also one of LAF's big ice storms.

 

Oh.. Perhaps it was Jan 78 they got clocked with as well? For some reason i had thought they did better with 67. That was a very sharp cut off considering Chicago got about 2 feet from it. Only other i know of where here, Chicago, and MKE did well with was Jan 79.

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That Winter was amazing after December. February was nothing but then we had a good storm or two in March. 

 

Whats your thoughts on this storm?

 

I'm focusing on the Winds off Lake Ontario and we may get some LES in Toronto tomorrow but i dont expect anything big, less than 3cm, prior to the storm. Overall i'm going for 20cm atleast with 35cm as my highest. 

20-25cm (8-10") Hopefully more, but I'd be happy with 6-8".

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So now both the NAM/GFS in close agreement for amounts in northeast IL. Both going to be wrong? And the RPM looked like both of these too. 3-5" along and north of 88.

 

So all the models vs the torch lovers Joe/Alek.

The RPM finally got a clue and only showed a DAB here.

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Oh.. Perhaps it was Jan 78 they got clocked with as well? For some reason i had thought they did better with 67. That was a very sharp cut off considering Chicago got about 2 feet from it. Only other i know of where here, Chicago, and MKE did well with was Jan 79.

 

Big amounts with Jan 1967 trailed off quickly, once you hit the IL/WI border. Kenosha had 10" for instance...I mean compared to Chicago, that's less "big". 

 

11.8" at MKE with Jan 1978. 14.5" with Jan 1979.

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Oceanstwx's gotta be loving this.  He's out in Portland ME now where it looks like they'll get 20-30". 

 

Extremely tough forecast for northeast IL.  I'd just do a broad brushed 1-3" for Chicago to cover my bases if forecasting for them.  Could easily bust low if the cold air becomes established sooner.

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Sticking with my first call. Still think warm issues will be a bugaboo for N IL, despite what the snow maps say. And if the heavier rates don't materialize, that's another negative. Plus snow doesn't accumulate well when the bank clock reads 39º. I want to lower MSN a bit, with what the 0z GFS and NAM just put out...but will stay the course. In Euro we trust. I want to raise my Toronto call, but don't want to do that to the fine folks up there (jinx ramifications). Boston remains a wild a** guess.   

 

Alek: 0.1"

Boston: 23.4"

Geos: 2.3"

MKE: 6.8"

MSN: 6.0"

ORD: 0.8"

Suckville: 8.5"

Toronto: 9.8"

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Sticking with my first call. Still think warm issues will be a bugaboo for N IL, despite what the snow maps say. And if the heavier rates don't materialize, that's another negative. Plus snow doesn't accumulate well when the bank clock reads 39º. I want to lower MSN a bit, with what the 0z GFS and NAM just put out...but will stay the course. In Euro we trust. I want to raise my Toronto call, but don't want to do that to the fine folks up there (jinx ramifications). Boston remains a wild a** guess.   

 

Alek: 0.1"

Boston: 23.4"

Geos: 2.3"

MKE: 6.8"

MSN: 6.0"

ORD: 0.8"

Suckville: 8.5"

Toronto: 9.8"

 

Might as well lower Madison and Milwaukee.  Our local Fox 6 affiliate Skyvision Plus shows much less precip than many of the other models, and nearly nothing in Madison.  What it does show in Madison is mixy or light snow.  Could be kooky, but if it is right, it is unbelievable how the trends of this storm have changed.  If the UK, GEM and Euro don't throw a curveball, I won't worry so much.

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Big amounts with Jan 1967 trailed off quickly, once you hit the IL/WI border. Kenosha had 10" for instance...I mean compared to Chicago, that's less "big". 

 

11.8" at MKE with Jan 1978. 14.5" with Jan 1979.

 

14 inch difference in THAT short of distance? wow.. I have seen some crazy cut offs but that is up there outside of lake effect stuff. Almost like the storm scooted east a lil and then north. Ofcourse there was very little help from the lake thanks to it being a warmer snowstorm unlike Jan 78/79. Funny that Jan 79 appears to have been the reverse of GHD ( Chicago was still bullseye ) between here and MKE with snowfall as the higher totals were out this way ( 18 here ) vs MKE who got the higher totals from GHD.

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