wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 I missed it what was it? DAB, <1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just thought I'd let the folks from Southern Ontario know...if anyone is looking for any type of weather information, http://www.sowx.ca This will probably the best storm for me since GHD. Like the Level 3 radar images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's interesting to be at the westernmost edge of a major snowstorm like this... I feel like this situation has alot of potential to become interesting for Madison. Precip just about to move in, temp has dropped to 28 F at MSN. Long east-west band of precip about to train over southern Wisconsin. http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/wi3compflash.html Was just thinking the same thing. Though, we've had our fair share in this area so I won't be bummed if we JUST get 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Like the Level 3 radar images. Thanks, goal was to take what ec offers and some other data and combine it all to make the best possible site for southern Ontario. Long ways to go. If you have any recommendations let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DAB, <1". So a 1" range, ok I'll take 1.5-2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 00z GFS a bit further north EDIT: maybe just drier...looking from phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 00z GFS a bit further north EDIT: maybe just drier...looking from phone drier and faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 00z GFS a bit further north EDIT: maybe just drier...looking from phone Actually this run looks a tick colder as was the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow, that's really interesting. You worked for EC right? 1999 was a bit of different animal in that it was 46" of unrelenting snow over the course of a week and a half. The army wasn't utilized after the main Jan 2-3 storm which dropped 15". Only later. world weatherwatch is who i worked for (EC doesn't take americans for hire last i knew). it was a series of 3 storms that dropped 30 per storm that just made too difficult. I lived in Ottawa between 2006-2011 and people still laugh about Toronto calling in the army. Thing is, so many people think that Lastman called the army in after one 30cm (1 foot) storm. That wasn't the case at all. It was after two weeks of relentless snow and when you consider the amount of traffic that goes through Toronto on a daily basis (the 401 through Toronto is the most congested freeway in North America, outdoing oven California's Santa Monica Freeway) and the number of streets in Toronto yo ucan understand why help was requested. Ottawa gets much more snow than Toronto, as do cities like Halifax and Montreal, but they don't have the population that Toronto has, or the congestion. There is a hate-on for Toronto in pretty much all of Canada outside of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 drier and faster wetter for eastern MI actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 wetter for eastern MI actually No it is drier than both the 12/18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS increased QPF again for Toronto. What I find interesting, is that both the 0z GFS and NAM reduced totals for places like MSN and MKE...moreso MSN. That, after the 12z Euro went northwest with higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Latest RGEM hammers T.O with 12-14''!!!! BTW in-house RPM model has YYZ at 14'' FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 I hesitate to do this because I am going to get slammed, but I don't care. The GFS Ensembles continue to prove that even when they are in agreement, they can't be trusted. Unless this GFS run is an outlier amongst its ensembles, it made a huge shift to the SE with the precip that none of its ensembles showed 12-24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Oh we do have the moisture source but it is harder to do especially out that way and or the closer to the apps you get. We just need EVERYTHING aligned perfectly. Which ala seems impossible to do even though it has been done a couple of times out that way and a few more here. Would probably surprise a few people to know that this area has had the biggest snow storm compared to Boston itself with 28.6" being top dog here ( KBTL with Jan 67 blizzard ..NO Lake stuff either with that) and 27 being top dog there in Boston. Sure areas just inland/just west of Boston have seen bigger dumps though. It seems a lot harder to get the same kind of widespread extreme snowfall rates you get out east without lake enhancement though. What was the duration of the 67' event? The real trick to getting the largest totals is to get a solid thumping from both WAA on the front side and then have the main FG/deformation band stall and pivot right over you as the storm wraps up. The cold conveyor tends to dry out a lot quicker though when you don't have the Atlantic directly to your east continuing to throw moisture back at you even after the storm has completely occluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I lived in Ottawa between 2006-2011 and people still laugh about Toronto calling in the army. Thing is, so many people think that Lastman called the army in after one 30cm (1 foot) storm. That wasn't the case at all. It was after two weeks of relentless snow and when you consider the amount of traffic that goes through Toronto on a daily basis (the 401 through Toronto is the most congested freeway in North America, outdoing oven California's Santa Monica Freeway) and the number of streets in Toronto yo ucan understand why help was requested. Ottawa gets much more snow than Toronto, as do cities like Halifax and Montreal, but they don't have the population that Toronto has, or the congestion. There is a hate-on for Toronto in pretty much all of Canada outside of Toronto. i know about that, and the toronto song. and let's face it, the mayors of toronto over the years have shown they all have their dorkiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 BOS only gets like 1.50" this run. Blip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No it is drier than both the 12/18z. your right overall. I was looking at how the 0.5"+ orients itself now hugging eastern MI including into Monroe county...12z had this but 18z did not, it basically is drier for southcentral MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i know about that, and the toronto song. and let's face it, the mayors of toronto over the years have shown they all have their dorkiness. lmao, dont even get me started about Rob Ford, lol. I remember it, i was off school for like a week because of those storms. Good times, loved that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How fitting. After several snowless seasons, Toronto tops everything off with a 12"+ storm. Congrats to SSC. I expect to see an updated signature and avatar by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i know about that, and the toronto song. and let's face it, the mayors of toronto over the years have shown they all have their dorkiness. This. But if you want real characters, take a look at the mayors of Montreal. Seriously, though, I think part of it was that the army was called in exactly one year after the ice storm in Ottawa and Montreal, which wasa far greater emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I hesitate to do this because I am going to get slammed, but I don't care. The GFS Ensembles continue to prove that even when they are in agreement, they can't be trusted. Unless this GFS run is an outlier amongst its ensembles, it made a huge shift to the SE with the precip that none of its ensembles showed 12-24 hours ago. Op runs > ensemble runs this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How fitting. After several snowless seasons, Toronto tops everything off with a 12"+ storm. Congrats to SSC. I expect to see an updated signature and avatar by Saturday morning. Toronto could very well see 6" in a 24 hour period, thus meeting the final bit of my winter criteria (see weather forecasting forum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Toronto could very well see 6" in a 24 hour period, thus meeting the final bit of my winter criteria (see weather forecasting forum) ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It seems a lot harder to get the same kind of widespread extreme snowfall rates you get out east without lake enhancement though. What was the duration of the 67' event? The real trick to getting the largest totals is to get a solid thumping from both WAA on the front side and then have the main FG/deformation band stall and pivot right over you as the storm wraps up. The cold conveyor tends to dry out a lot quicker when you don't have the Atlantic directly to your east continuing to throw moisture back at you even after the storm has completely occluded. Jan 67 had a sh!tload of moisture to work with. Thus see the epic ice storm just to the south of here. The torch just prior to the blizzard probably helped out a bit as the GOM was wide open. Started out very briefly as a rn/sn mix believe it or not ( storm developed along a front that had ended the torch ) and then went straight heavy snow. Total QPF was 2.80" and thus almost straight 10-1 ratios. Keep in mind many from se WI/Chicago to Lansing saw 18+ and so it was widespread. The screwzone was the se part of the state who got a bit of ice from it and thus why the lower totals there in places like Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 lmao, dont even get me started about Rob Ford, lol. I remember it, i was off school for like a week because of those storms. Good times, loved that month. I was in Grade 13/OAC for those storms. Amazing. December was a torch until just before Christmas and then we had that January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So now both the NAM/GFS in close agreement for amounts in northeast IL. Both going to be wrong? And the RPM looked like both of these too. 3-5" along and north of 88. So all the models vs the torch lovers Joe/Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 toronto and most of southern ontario looks like will get their 15-20 cms easily with the latest GFS grids out going with lesser numbers but similar timing. looks like 5-7" for most of southern parts of lower michigan as well. congrats guys. btw, on a side note, yea i mentioned it in another thread earlier today. but when i got my new laptop home today and downloaded the new bufkit (v 12), one of the models on there that were available on the setup side was the GEM. too bad i over-wrote the site list with what i already established. anyone know where the GEM bufkit profiles could be on the web? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Jan 67 had a sh!tload of moisture to work with. Thus see the epic ice storm just to the south of here. The torch just prior to the blizzard probably helped out a bit as the GOM was wide open. Started out very briefly as a rn/sn mix believe it or not ( storm developed along a front that had ended the torch ) and then went straight heavy snow. Total QPF was 2.80" and thus almost straight 10-1 ratios. Keep in mind many from se WI/Chicago to Lansing saw 18+ and so it was widespread. The screwzone was the se part of the state who got a bit of ice from it and thus why the lower totals there in places like Detroit. a bit of ice? And screwzones not the word. The Jan 26/27 total at DTW was 1.75" precip and 4.0" snow. Tons of zr/ip. ARB? 18" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Eyeballing the 0z RGEM type maps, they have about 4 hours of snow for ORD. Everything prior to 22z is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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