YHM Supercell Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Congrats are much appreciated guys but not a flake has fallen here yet. Conversion is the hardest part. Hopefully Hamilton gets a bit of love. Would love to see 8+ inches here... EDIT: As per the usual...NAM seems out to lunch. GFS seem a lot more reasonable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 torching mid level warm layer a stone cold lock Ok, I see the warm layer at about 925mb now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 All joking aside I still think most of the Detroit area gets 3-7" out of this. More north, less south. GTA gets 10-16" and the Saginaw Valley/Thumb gets 8-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hopefully Hamilton gets a bit of love. Would love to see 8+ inches here... I'm using 8" as my success benchmark. End our 5 year drought. Get north of that mark, I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm using 8" as my success benchmark. End our 5 year drought. Get north of that mark, I'm happy. That's very reasonable. I'm sure you will get that. NAM is way overdone though. GFS still has 12-14 inches for Toronto. Couldn't help but notice that Buffalo scaled back the WSW for the Niagara Frontier from 9-18 inches to 6-11 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Here is the 00z NAM forecast sounding for ORD valid at 21z tomorrow. The lowest 200 mb or so are hovering right around freezing so trying to come up with a precise time for changeover is going to be challenging. CAA is nonexistent for much of the event so I think precip rates are going to be key. ord.gif Long ways to go for ORD. 0z NAM even a tick warmer it looks like. Brutal warmth at 18z (2.4C at 900, 2.3C at 950). Cooling thereafter, but it'll be tough to see much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm using 8" as my success benchmark. End our 5 year drought. Get north of that mark, I'm happy. Seriously.. Good luck there man. Looking like the typical table scraps storm for here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 torching mid level warm layer a stone cold lock The good thing is that you don't have ripping south/southwesterly flow above the surface. Check out that ORD sounding that I posted...the flow is not that strong so massive advective processes aren't in play. I'd certainly lean conservative around Chicago given how marginal it is but I think there's some reason for hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 All joking aside I still think most of the Detroit area gets 3-7" out of this. More north, less south. GTA gets 10-16" and the Saginaw Valley/Thumb gets 8-14" And boston gets as much as we'll have combined all winter. Would once really like to experience what they are about to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Long ways to go for ORD. 0z NAM even a tick warmer it looks like. Brutal warmth at 18z (2.4C at 900, 2.3C at 950). Cooling thereafter, but it'll be tough to see much snow. The NAM VERBATIM looks like a few inches and possibly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And boston gets as much as we'll have combined all winter. Would once really like to experience what they are about to. Have experienced a couple back east ofcourse. It is PURE heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 UGN probably fares better, via this run of the NAM. Less low level warmth to overcome...or cooling takes place faster. MKE looks good to go. Surface temps are sketchy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Long ways to go for ORD. 0z NAM even a tick warmer it looks like. Brutal warmth at 18z (2.4C at 900, 2.3C at 950). Cooling thereafter, but it'll be tough to see much snow. About 0.5" of water reserved for after 21z for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The NAM VERBATIM looks like a few inches and possibly more. Maybe. But that's a tough warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And boston gets as much as we'll have combined all winter. Would once really like to experience what they are about to. This area is NOT a big snowstorm area. We have to accept a 4-8" or even a 6-12" is a really good event for us. We don't have the moisture source to provide such events like Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yeah.......but it will melt a couple of days later(so say some on this board). Point is THE STORM itself. You have to experience it to understand it. Unsure of how long it will hang around in those parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Long ways to go for ORD. 0z NAM even a tick warmer it looks like. Brutal warmth at 18z (2.4C at 900, 2.3C at 950). Cooling thereafter, but it'll be tough to see much snow. Maybe. But that's a tough warm layer. Good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hey, I hope you don't mind me asking a quick question. I'm not too familiar with these maps. When it says "100-125", does that transfer to 10-12.5 inches? Or something entirely different? Thx for your help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Maybe. But that's a tough warm layer. Thanks Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Already inflated enough here. Things take a turn towards lunacy though along the St. Lawrence River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Regarding that ORD sounding, wet bulb temps at both 850mb and at the sfc stay at/below freezing after about 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That's very reasonable. I'm sure you will get that. NAM is way overdone though. GFS still has 12-14 inches for Toronto. Couldn't help but notice that Buffalo scaled back the WSW for the Niagara Frontier from 9-18 inches to 6-11 inches. the nam has to be over-done. but that being said, good luck on the 400-series highways and the QEW on the friday morning rush, especially on the skyways. looks like it's going to be more than a bit of a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks Joe Of course I'm rooting for the snowy outcome, but I call it like I see it. Sorry. MKX mentioned the NAM has performed the best lately with temp profiles. Something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the nam has to be over-done. but that being said, good luck on the 400-series highways and the QEW on the friday morning rush, especially on the skyways. looks like it's going to be more than a bit of a problem 3 DAY WEEKEND! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Point is THE STORM itself. You have to experience it to understand it. Unsure of how long it will hang around in those parts? Last week I received nearly a foot in 4 hours. It was amazing! I couldn't imagine another foot or 2 all in the same storm. However, kinda bittersweet to watch the melt process begin almost immediately. I'd never trade living in the GL for a blizzard every now and then back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Regarding that ORD sounding, wet bulb temps at both 850mb and at the sfc stay at/below freezing after about 15z. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 846 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013 ILZ005-006-071100- /O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0002.130207T1200Z-130208T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0004.130207T2200Z-130208T0300Z/ MCHENRY-LAKE IL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN 846 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. * PRECIPITATION...SOME LIGHT SLEET...SNOW...OR POSSIBLY A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THE CHANCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THAT TIME. * ACCUMULATION...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yeah.......but it will melt a couple of days later(so say some on this board). Can melt all it wants. Could careless about snowcover josh style. Its all about the moment during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And boston gets as much as we'll have combined all winter. Would once really like to experience what they are about to. Whenever we would get into the debates about winters, I said for me its a no-brainer..we have better winters, but when they get the ingregients come together JUST right, they get creamed like we never can. I would love to fly into BOS and experience this storm, would want to stay at a hotel in outlying area away from city, and also wherever is the hardest hit area (BOS itself might have mixing issues depending on track). Boston proper hasnt had to shovel snow in like 2 years lol...now they may need a bulldozer to get to the mailbox. With the snow being wet it may actually be a dangerous storm for roofs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The good thing is that you don't have ripping south/southwesterly flow above the surface. Check out that ORD sounding that I posted...the flow is not that strong so massive advective processes aren't in play. I'd certainly lean conservative around Chicago given how marginal it is but I think there's some reason for hope. Very true and probably why the NAM is still showing some snow with the heavy returns it pulls through...those end up lighter and plop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 3 DAY WEEKEND! Thats what I'm hoping to get out of this one. Maybe some money shoveling as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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