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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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I'm using 8" as my success benchmark. End our 5 year drought. Get north of that mark, I'm happy.

That's very reasonable. I'm sure you will get that. NAM is way overdone though. GFS still has 12-14 inches for Toronto.

Couldn't help but notice that Buffalo scaled back the WSW for the Niagara Frontier from 9-18 inches to 6-11 inches. 

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Here is the 00z NAM forecast sounding for ORD valid at 21z tomorrow.  The lowest 200 mb or so are hovering right around freezing so trying to come up with a precise time for changeover is going to be challenging.  CAA is nonexistent for much of the event so I think precip rates are going to be key.     

 

attachicon.giford.gif

 

Long ways to go for ORD. 0z NAM even a tick warmer it looks like. Brutal warmth at 18z (2.4C at 900, 2.3C at 950). Cooling thereafter, but it'll be tough to see much snow.

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torching mid level warm layer a stone cold lock

The good thing is that you don't have ripping south/southwesterly flow above the surface. Check out that ORD sounding that I posted...the flow is not that strong so massive advective processes aren't in play. I'd certainly lean conservative around Chicago given how marginal it is but I think there's some reason for hope.

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Long ways to go for ORD. 0z NAM even a tick warmer it looks like. Brutal warmth at 18z (2.4C at 900, 2.3C at 950). Cooling thereafter, but it'll be tough to see much snow.

 

About 0.5" of water reserved for after 21z for ORD.

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And boston gets as much as we'll have combined all winter. Would once really like to experience what they are about to.

 

This area is NOT a big snowstorm area. We have to accept a 4-8" or even a 6-12" is a really good event for us. We don't have the moisture source to provide such events like Boston. 

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That's very reasonable. I'm sure you will get that. NAM is way overdone though. GFS still has 12-14 inches for Toronto.

Couldn't help but notice that Buffalo scaled back the WSW for the Niagara Frontier from 9-18 inches to 6-11 inches. 

 

the nam has to be over-done. but that being said, good luck on the 400-series highways and the QEW on the friday morning rush, especially on the skyways. looks like it's going to be more than a bit of a problem

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Point is THE STORM itself. You have to experience it to understand it. :)

 

Unsure of how long it will hang around in those parts?

Last week I received nearly a foot in 4 hours.  It was amazing!  I couldn't imagine another foot or 2 all in the same storm. However, kinda bittersweet to watch the melt process begin almost immediately.  I'd never trade living in the GL for a blizzard every now and then back east.

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Regarding that ORD sounding, wet bulb temps at both 850mb and at the sfc stay at/below freezing after about 15z.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

846 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

ILZ005-006-071100-

/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0002.130207T1200Z-130208T0300Z/

/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0004.130207T2200Z-130208T0300Z/

MCHENRY-LAKE IL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN

846 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TO 9 PM CST

THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TO 9 PM CST

THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY

  AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION...SOME LIGHT SLEET...SNOW...OR POSSIBLY A TOUCH OF

  FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY

  MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING THE

  PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE

  FREEZING THE CHANCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT

  INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX

  WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR

  THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY

  EVENING WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

* ACCUMULATION...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

  THURSDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW

COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

 

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And boston gets as much as we'll have combined all winter. Would once really like to experience what they are about to.

Whenever we would get into the debates about winters, I said for me its a no-brainer..we have better winters, but when they get the ingregients come together JUST right, they get creamed like we never can. I would love to fly into BOS and experience this storm, would want to stay at a hotel in outlying area away from city, and also wherever is the hardest hit area (BOS itself might have mixing issues depending on track). Boston proper hasnt had to shovel snow in like 2 years lol...now they may need a bulldozer to get to the mailbox. With the snow being wet it may actually be a dangerous storm for roofs.

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The good thing is that you don't have ripping south/southwesterly flow above the surface. Check out that ORD sounding that I posted...the flow is not that strong so massive advective processes aren't in play. I'd certainly lean conservative around Chicago given how marginal it is but I think there's some reason for hope.

 

 

Very true and probably why the NAM is still showing some snow with the heavy returns it pulls through...those end up lighter and plop

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