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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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The warm tongue is covering almost all of Wisconsin right now, it'll get pushed out by the cold front overnight Thursday. The 0 C isotherm is going to stall roughly along a line from La Crosse to Madison to Chicago. http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn_tempest/12UTC/avn_c850_flash.html

 

Light snow underway, decent flake size and now it's really starting to come down. 20-25 dBZ overhead. 28 F on top of the meteorology building.

 

So you think Milwaukee should be all snow?  Besides the NAM, most of the models basically have us all snow, but some confirmation from a guy with a better handle on trends is appreciated.

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They just had it higher Dec 26.

 

Seriously though....I would take 2-4" considering 2 days ago I expected nothing. If you want to be technical, this is the best NAM run we have seen for here, though it still is no gfs or euro.

yes it is No dry slot. moisture moves out so quick

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Here is the 00z NAM forecast sounding for ORD valid at 21z tomorrow.  The lowest 200 mb or so are hovering right around freezing so trying to come up with a precise time for changeover is going to be challenging.  CAA is nonexistent for much of the event so I think precip rates are going to be key.     

 

post-14-0-60648800-1360204680_thumb.gif

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