Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think the warm tongue is minimal enough that we'll have all wintry precip in Madison, if the GFS is right. Seems like we're just far enough northeast to get into the cold air, upper 20s in Madison and to the northeast with lower 30s southwest of town. Ratios are gonna be poor though, this will be heavy wet snow/sleet, with a few drops of freezing rain thrown in for good measure. gfstoday.png Do you have an idea how far the warm tongue might progress to the northeast with this system? I see the low pressure responsible for the wintry weather tomorrow hasn't even formed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DTX snow probs Median: Max: I'll take it. And more if possible lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Canuck whats your preliminary thoughts? I'm going for 7-10 inches at the moment. Winds off Lake Ontario look to be in favor for the GTA through tomorrow night but by Morning and Afternoon tomorrow, it should favor Hamilton and regions surrounding it. Similar amounts. I don't want to get too arrogant about this but it appears 6" is pretty much a floor for us. And for our Hamilton friends, I'm thinking 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Similar amounts. I don't want to get too arrogant about this but it appears 6" is pretty much a floor for us. And for our Hamilton friends, I'm thinking 4-8". Thanks for that SSC. For what its worth. HPC has 1 inch QPF around the west end of Lake Ontario. 10:1 ratio would be 25cm for Toronto and along the Lake Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks for that SSC. For what its worth. HPC has 1 inch QPF around the west end of Lake Ontario. 10:1 ratio would be 25cm for Toronto and along the Lake Shore. Good news for steeltown is that the EURO has much less of the N-S gradient that the GFS, and especially the NAM have. Would the former model come to fruition, I think heftier amounts could fall in Hamilton. But the uncertainty makes me hesitant to go north of 4-8" attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Good news for steeltown is that the EURO has much less of the N-S gradient that the GFS, and especially the NAM have. Would the former model come to fruition, I think heftier amounts could fall in Hamilton. But the uncertainty makes me hesitant to go north of 4-8" attm. I'm not usually a wishcaster...but in this case I'm saying 5-9 inches. With maybe a touch more. Who knows what might occur with lake enhancement and exact low placement. One thing is certain though...maps are working ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Here's our low pressure. GFS placed it here. Slightly south from the 18z it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Oh my. DT actually missed the potential for the East Coast storm. He doesn't do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Do you have an idea how far the warm tongue might progress to the northeast with this system? I see the low pressure responsible for the wintry weather tomorrow hasn't even formed yet. The warm tongue is covering almost all of Wisconsin right now, it'll get pushed out by the cold front overnight Thursday. The 0 C isotherm is going to stall roughly along a line from La Crosse to Madison to Chicago. http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn_tempest/12UTC/avn_c850_flash.html Light snow underway, decent flake size and now it's really starting to come down. 20-25 dBZ overhead. 28 F on top of the meteorology building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 still torching at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Similar amounts. I don't want to get too arrogant about this but it appears 6" is pretty much a floor for us. And for our Hamilton friends, I'm thinking 4-8". Canuck, do you think a foot is a good possibility here? Regardless, this looks to be Toronto's biggest storm in half a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Similar amounts. I don't want to get too arrogant about this but it appears 6" is pretty much a floor for us. And for our Hamilton friends, I'm thinking 4-8". just looked at some of the models real quick for ontario. and yea, i'd agree in saying 15-20cms (6-8") will happen pretty easily for most areas south of a wiarton/brockville line in southern Ontario. as for higher totals, i wouldn't be surprised in say the Mount Forest area, maybe K-W, and the upper elevations of the niagara escarpment (YHM/Mount Hope airport and areas away from the QEW near the Lincoln expwy) got as much as 30cms (12"). I also wouldn't be surprised to see most of the Buffalo/Rochester/Jamestown area (US 219/NY 400/I-390 areas) seeing maybe 6-9" (15-22cms) of snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 still torching at 36 That term has lost most of its original meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wait he's a Met? No, he's an idiot. Yeah, that was a typo by me. He's not a met and he's over-the-top. He's basically married to Environment Canada's forecasts. Anthony Farnell is Toronto's best TV met and he's calling for 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That term has lost most of its original meaning. Yes it has! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM doing a great job picking up rain in northern Iowa. Not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 full on mega weenie NAM run incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 21z SREF has 1.00 QPF over our house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Canuck, do you think a foot is a good possibility here? Regardless, this looks to be Toronto's biggest storm in half a decade. Its possible locally but 6 inches is a guarantee at the very least. Instead of looking at a "decade" i would say it would be the biggest storm since GHD 11 and if amounts exceed then Dec 08. But dont forget the Feb 08 and March 08 storms delivered a foot LOL, haha the good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Decent moisture feed from the Pacific, Gulf of Mexico moisture staying to the south http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/g8/g8wvflash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 850 0°C line looks to be in the same place at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Its possible locally but 6 inches is a guarantee at the very least. Instead of looking at a "decade" i would say it would be the biggest storm since GHD 11 and if amounts exceed then Dec 08. But dont forget the Feb 08 and March 08 storms delivered a foot LOL, haha the good times. Yeah, I forgot about December 2008. Was quite a snowy month for Toronto, as well as Ottawa where I was at the time. I just had February 2008 on my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm going with 8"-12" for the GTA, 6"-8" for Hamilton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i recall an event earlier this year where the wetter euro/NAM/SREF combo were sent to the woodhsed by the drier GFS/canadian combo at least in the ottawa-montreal-upstate area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 All snow here by 3pm in the afternoon. On the verge of all snow at ORD at that time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 full on mega weenie NAM run incoming? For C. MI, at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_030.gif [Alek] Garbage [/Alek] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 [Alek] Garbage [/Alek] torching the night before, rain to snow event, nam....toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Canuck, do you think a foot is a good possibility here? Regardless, this looks to be Toronto's biggest storm in half a decade. It's certainly a possibility, but I'd say less that 50% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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