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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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I think the warm tongue is minimal enough that we'll have all wintry precip in Madison, if the GFS is right. Seems like we're just far enough northeast to get into the cold air, upper 20s in Madison and to the northeast with lower 30s southwest of town. Ratios are gonna be poor though, this will be heavy wet snow/sleet, with a few drops of freezing rain thrown in for good measure.

 

attachicon.gifgfstoday.png

 

Do you have an idea how far the warm tongue might progress to the northeast with this system?

 

I see the low pressure responsible for the wintry weather tomorrow hasn't even formed yet.

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Canuck whats your preliminary thoughts? 

 

I'm going for 7-10 inches at the moment. Winds off Lake Ontario look to be in favor for the GTA through tomorrow night but by Morning and Afternoon tomorrow, it should favor Hamilton and regions surrounding it. 

 

Similar amounts. I don't want to get too arrogant about this but it appears 6" is pretty much a floor for us.

 

And for our Hamilton friends, I'm thinking 4-8".

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Similar amounts. I don't want to get too arrogant about this but it appears 6" is pretty much a floor for us.

 

And for our Hamilton friends, I'm thinking 4-8".

Thanks for that SSC. For what its worth. HPC has 1 inch QPF around the west end of Lake Ontario. 10:1 ratio would be 25cm for Toronto and along the Lake Shore. 

qpf_day_2_greatlakes_lambert_topo_800x60

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Thanks for that SSC. For what its worth. HPC has 1 inch QPF around the west end of Lake Ontario. 10:1 ratio would be 25cm for Toronto and along the Lake Shore. 

qpf_day_2_greatlakes_lambert_topo_800x60

 

Good news for steeltown is that the EURO has much less of the N-S gradient that the GFS, and especially the NAM have. Would the former model come to fruition, I think heftier amounts could fall in Hamilton. But the uncertainty makes me hesitant to go north of 4-8" attm.

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Good news for steeltown is that the EURO has much less of the N-S gradient that the GFS, and especially the NAM have. Would the former model come to fruition, I think heftier amounts could fall in Hamilton. But the uncertainty makes me hesitant to go north of 4-8" attm.

I'm not usually a wishcaster...but in this case I'm saying 5-9 inches. With maybe a touch more. Who knows what might occur with lake enhancement and exact low placement. One thing is certain though...maps are working ok ;)

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Do you have an idea how far the warm tongue might progress to the northeast with this system?

 

I see the low pressure responsible for the wintry weather tomorrow hasn't even formed yet.

The warm tongue is covering almost all of Wisconsin right now, it'll get pushed out by the cold front overnight Thursday. The 0 C isotherm is going to stall roughly along a line from La Crosse to Madison to Chicago. http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn_tempest/12UTC/avn_c850_flash.html

 

Light snow underway, decent flake size and now it's really starting to come down. 20-25 dBZ overhead. 28 F on top of the meteorology building.

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Similar amounts. I don't want to get too arrogant about this but it appears 6" is pretty much a floor for us.

 

And for our Hamilton friends, I'm thinking 4-8".

 

just looked at some of the models real quick for ontario. and yea, i'd agree in saying 15-20cms (6-8") will happen pretty easily for most areas south of a wiarton/brockville line in southern Ontario. as for higher totals, i wouldn't be surprised in say the Mount Forest area, maybe K-W, and the upper elevations of the niagara escarpment (YHM/Mount Hope airport and areas away from the QEW near the Lincoln expwy) got as much as 30cms (12"). I also wouldn't be surprised to see most of the Buffalo/Rochester/Jamestown area (US 219/NY 400/I-390 areas) seeing maybe 6-9" (15-22cms) of snow as well.

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Canuck, do you think a foot is a good possibility here? Regardless, this looks to be Toronto's biggest storm in half a decade.

 

Its possible locally but 6 inches is a guarantee at the very least. Instead of looking at a "decade" i would say it would be the biggest storm since GHD 11 and if amounts exceed then Dec 08. 

 

But dont forget the Feb 08 and March 08 storms delivered a foot LOL, haha the good times.

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Its possible locally but 6 inches is a guarantee at the very least. Instead of looking at a "decade" i would say it would be the biggest storm since GHD 11 and if amounts exceed then Dec 08. 

 

But dont forget the Feb 08 and March 08 storms delivered a foot LOL, haha the good times.

Yeah, I forgot about December 2008. Was quite a snowy month for Toronto, as well as Ottawa where I was at the time. I just had February 2008 on my mind.

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