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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm

wisconsinwx

By wisconsinwx,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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weathernut

weathernut

Posted
Posted

:lmao: Imagine for a second that this actually happens. It would among the biggest storms since the December 11,1944 monster and Toronto just wouldn't know what to do with itself!

holy crap!  That would be amazing!  Anyone know if that number is fairly similar in Hamilton -  YHM? 

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weathernut

weathernut

Posted
Posted

Buffalo NWS calling for 9-18 across the northern portion of WNY from my location northward, and 6-12 across the 3 southern counties with the potential of a mix for a few hours at the onset.

 

They are calling for 2 FEET+ for locations east of Lake Ontario including the Watertown/Tughill area. They are so spoiled there, they get 2-3 feet of lake effect each week and now huge synoptic events. ^_^

When storms track from this direction, I love to see what Buffalo is forecasting. Buffalo is just SE of me. So if they are thinking 6-12 for their southern counties, that bodes well for me in Hamilton.  I won't get too excited of course, given the track record of the past couple winters, but boy, this is looking good.

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weathernut

weathernut

Posted
Posted

I'm pulling for you Toronto!

Even though it's a Canadian city, you won't believe the nightmare it will be if 12+ inches falls. LOL.  The Toronto-Hamilton area has about 7 million residents, and around 40-50% of them are new Canadians. And as the TO posters have mentioned, it really doesn't snow much here. Big storms are VERY rare.  The roads/freeways just grind to a halt.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

I LOVE OHweathers input...but I didnt get the L tracking north of Chicago and Detroit. I didnt see one model track in north of Detroit. Seems north OH is the consensus.

 

 

I agree with this. The furthest north I saw was about Monroe. 

 

He was talking about the 850 low, not the surface low.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Even though it's a Canadian city, you won't believe the nightmare it will be if 12+ inches falls. LOL.  The Toronto-Hamilton area has about 7 million residents, and around 40-50% of them are new Canadians. And as the TO posters have mentioned, it really doesn't snow much here. Big storms are VERY rare.  The roads/freeways just grind to a halt.

 

You need to read more and post less. It's fairly obvious why you were banned from Accuwx.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

the mid level lows track right over you, if not a tick north. I think that may have been what he was talking about.

 

 

He was talking about the 850 low, not the surface low.

Bingo, was referring to the mid level low track which often is an indicator of how far north mixing may get.

Certainly will be a nail biter for Detroit, will probably be a nice gradient from the northern suburbs to the southern suburbs. I have Detroit itself just inside my 3-6" area so I feel pretty confident in the city seeing 3" or so...although yes it would only take a small tick south for more.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Bingo, was referring to the mid level low track which often is an indicator of how far north mixing may get.

Certainly will be a nail biter for Detroit, will probably be a nice gradient from the northern suburbs to the southern suburbs. I have Detroit itself just inside my 3-6" area so I feel pretty confident in the city seeing 3" or so...although yes it would only take a small tick south for more.

 

Wonder if things like evap cooling play into it. Also..models under or overdoing temps will be absolutely critical. I mean, even  if it rains, it would be like 33 to maybe 34 degrees and rain. There is snowcover as well.

 

DTX latest aviation

.AVIATION...//DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROMKPTK SOUTH AS INITIAL BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW SLIDES INTOKMBS AND BRUSHES KFNT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITHMVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANINCREASE IN SNOW FOR KMBS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICHEXPANDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS AT OR JUST AFTER 00ZTHURSDAY EVENING. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE QUICK ONCE IT BEGINS WITHRAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING.FOR DTW...VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORELOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES QUICKLY AS STORM SYSTEM ENCROACHES ONAREA LATE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z-06Z ONTHURSDAY EVENING AS -SN/BR INCREASE...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS MIXEDBAG OF PRECIP.
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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

Wonder if things like evap cooling play into it. Also..models under or overdoing temps will be absolutely critical. I mean, even  if it rains, it would be like 33 to maybe 34 degrees and rain. There is snowcover as well.

 

DTX latest aviation

.AVIATION...//DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROMKPTK SOUTH AS INITIAL BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW SLIDES INTOKMBS AND BRUSHES KFNT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITHMVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANINCREASE IN SNOW FOR KMBS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICHEXPANDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS AT OR JUST AFTER 00ZTHURSDAY EVENING. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE QUICK ONCE IT BEGINS WITHRAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING.FOR DTW...VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORELOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES QUICKLY AS STORM SYSTEM ENCROACHES ONAREA LATE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z-06Z ONTHURSDAY EVENING AS -SN/BR INCREASE...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS MIXEDBAG OF PRECIP.

Yeah, anything helps for sure. Again though, and outside of lake effect, I do tend to be fairly conservative I'll admit, if the mid level low does track over Detroit the mid-level WAA may be enough to overcome that and produce a period of mixed precip during the heaviest precip. So best case obviously is for the whole thing to shift a little farther south although I'm not too enthusiastic about a large shift this close in...although stranger things have happened.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

ptot60.gifsnow60.gif

I dont know if theres a rhyme or reason or what, but i recall many storms over the years where the MI/OH border acts like a snow-block. The difference between DTW and TOL being huge. Its just those few instances (none greater than 1-1-08) that make me VERY worried lol. Sad too, since as of 2 days ago I was outside enjoying the snow but expecting next to nothing with this event.

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

It's interesting to be at the westernmost edge of a major snowstorm like this... I feel like this situation has alot of potential to become interesting for Madison. Precip just about to move in, temp has dropped to 28 F at MSN. Long east-west band of precip about to train over southern Wisconsin. http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/wi3compflash.html

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

No, he's an idiot.

 

Canuck whats your preliminary thoughts? 

 

I'm going for 7-10 inches at the moment. Winds off Lake Ontario look to be in favor for the GTA through tomorrow night but by Morning and Afternoon tomorrow, it should favor Hamilton and regions surrounding it. 

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

Posted
Posted

Wonder if things like evap cooling play into it. Also..models under or overdoing temps will be absolutely critical. I mean, even if it rains, it would be like 33 to maybe 34 degrees and rain. There is snowcover as well.

DTX latest aviation

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM
KPTK SOUTH AS INITIAL BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW SLIDES INTO
KMBS AND BRUSHES KFNT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SNOW FOR KMBS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH
EXPANDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE QUICK ONCE IT BEGINS WITH
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING.

FOR DTW...VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES QUICKLY AS STORM SYSTEM ENCROACHES ON
AREA LATE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z-06Z ON
THURSDAY EVENING AS -SN/BR INCREASE...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS MIXED
BAG OF PRECIP.

We have seen models under do WAA many times.

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

I think the warm tongue is minimal enough that we'll have all wintry precip in Madison, if the GFS is right. Seems like we're just far enough northeast to get into the cold air, upper 20s in Madison and to the northeast with lower 30s southwest of town. Ratios are gonna be poor though, this will be heavy wet snow/sleet, with a few drops of freezing rain thrown in for good measure.

 

post-645-0-26311800-1360197369_thumb.png

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