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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm

wisconsinwx

By wisconsinwx,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Stevo6899

Stevo6899

Posted
Posted

Id be curious for some input from stebo or other area mets. Is the NAM being its usual garbage self? I mean there is a pretty big difference....euro has us in the 20s with heavy snow, GFS near 30 with heavy snow, and NAM hovers around freezing with a brief few hour thump of rain/ice and snow.

I was thinking the same thing. Don't really see a dry slot. Precip just orientated a lil different.

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

Im confused about this dry slot business this go around. When I think of dry slot, I think of heavy thump of snow, then dryslot to just flurries or drizzle, then see what the wraparound snow can do. this time I dont think its necessarily a dryslot, more than we wont see ANY of the initial waa snow, rather we will see ours as the line of precip charges through from about midnight to 10am Friday.

 

 

If the NAM would to verify dry slotting is a real possibility. The GFS is are best bet.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

"15 cm in most areas with 25 cm not out of the question"

 

You can tell they're afraid to be bullish this round. I figure they don't want to be 0/1 for Winter 2012-13 season. Lol

 

Well, it's still a watch, not a warning, so it's implied that there's still uncertainty. And I've gotten the sense they've become a little more sheepish about issuing WSWs the last couple of winters seeing as so many of them failed to verify.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Buffalo NWS calling for 9-18 across the northern portion of WNY from my location northward, and 6-12 across the 3 southern counties with the potential of a mix for a few hours at the onset.

 

They are calling for 2 FEET+ for locations east of Lake Ontario including the Watertown/Tughill area. They are so spoiled there, they get 2-3 feet of lake effect each week and now huge synoptic events. ^_^

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

Haven't made a regional call on a snow storm in a longg while but let's see how this goes.

 

My main concern here is that the 850mb low is expected to track near or even slightly north of Chicago and Detroit based on your model of choice...with the 12z Euro shown below as an example:

 

I_jWae.gif

 

This suggests mixing issues will certainly occur during the heaviest precip for Chicago and Detroit with mainly rain not far south of those cities. An additional concern here is that the models aren't showing much of a mid-level theta gradient to the west/northwest of the mid-level low track...meaning most of the snow will occur on the strong WAA along and ahead of the mid-level low...meaning that if you mix during the heavy thump of precip, you won't be able to count on wraparound to save you:

 

post-525-0-45979200-1360190713_thumb.png

 

Now, with this said, areas that stay north of the 850mb low track will certainly see a nice thump of snow...the GFS shows a very nice theta-e gradient on the east side of the mid-level low on a 30-40 knot low level jet...so snow rates in excess of an inch per hour are possible for several hours where all snow falls.

 

post-525-0-37565100-1360190887_thumb.gif

 

Given the rather flat nature of the pattern, I don't expect the models to trend farther south/more amplified with our shortwave...the European has been very consistent and near the southern edge of guidance with the mid-level low track...so I think it's a good benchmark for how far south the heaviest snows may get. Given the GFS is very close to the Euro I think we can probably establish where the rain/snow line will setup and where the heaviest snows will fall.

 

Given our shortwave will remain rather sheared until late Thursday evening due to confluence caused by the polar vortex sitting over eastern Canada...that will be pulling out and gradually allowing the confluence to weaken Thursday into Thursday night...WAA should be kept to a minimum until later Thursday, meaning totals west of Lake MI will not be terribly impressive...although they should begin picking up over Wisconsin as the shortwave is allowed to amplify a little more as the polar vortex pulls out and the shortwave approaches that area.

Given the duration of the heavier snow will not be terribly long across WI...4 hours or less...and 6-7 hours across MI...slightly more across Ontario...I don't want to go to high on amounts despite some models suggesting some lolis of 1"+ QPF over parts of central lower MI and near Toronto...given expected duration I think 4-8" is a good call on maximum amounts of WI...6-10" over central lower MI...and perhaps 6-12" across parts of southern Ontario.

post-525-0-36187900-1360192357_thumb.png

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DAFF

DAFF

Posted
Posted

I see no dry slot in the models for DTW. In fact with each run it is looking more and more like a very plowable event. Anythig over 3" will be a bonus for anyone in our region. Just having the possibility of 8+ plus in our region is exciting all in its self. Is it me or is it a possibility for the storm to be gaining steam as it heads eastward over Michigan. Would not be surprised to see a different snow chart come morning for SE Michigan.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Id be curious for some input from stebo or other area mets. Is the NAM being its usual garbage self? I mean there is a pretty big difference....euro has us in the 20s with heavy snow, GFS near 30 with heavy snow, and NAM hovers around freezing with a brief few hour thump of rain/ice and snow.

Normally I would say it's the NAM but you can't ignore it entirely and being that you are far South I would be a touch concerned. We'll see though if the 850mb low forms over or just South of us it will end up cold enough for all snow.

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DAFF

DAFF

Posted
Posted

I'm thinking the low will pass just to our south and most of the precip will be after its passing. (backsided)With a system this volitile anything could happen expecially for those on the southern tier of the  system.  A tick north or south will greatly change things for anyone on the edge of the 850 line. For DTW i'm estimating 5"....

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

I'm thinking the low will pass just to our south and most of the precip will be after its passing. (backsided)With a system this volitile anything could happen expecially for those on the southern tier of the  system.  A tick north or south will greatly change things for anyone on the edge of the 850 line. For DTW i'm estimating 5"....

 

Didn't you read OHweather's fantastic post above? Limited CCB precip with this. 

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

15z SREF mean snowfall totals.

 

DTW: 2.9"

FNT: 7.9"

GRR: 6.6"

MKE: 7.3"

MKG: 8.1"

MSN: 3.8"

ORD: 1.9"

RFD: 2.7"

UGN: 4.5"

YYZ: 19.0" (for real)

:lmao: Imagine for a second that this actually happens. It would among the biggest storms since the December 11,1944 monster and Toronto just wouldn't know what to do with itself!

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