kab2791 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 26. South wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Thursday Snow. High near 35. South wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches. Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. North northeast wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 9 inches. Friday Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 33. North northeast wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Point and Click for Mount Pleasant. Showing around 14"...a tad overzealous. Still, I cannot recall seeing a 9" amount in point/click forecast before (for myself at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 26. South wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Thursday Snow. High near 35. South wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches. Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. North northeast wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 9 inches. Friday Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 33. North northeast wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Point and Click for Mount Pleasant. Showing around 14"...a tad overzealous. Still, I cannot recall seeing a 9" amount in point/click forecast before (for myself at least) Nice! I'm happy for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 yeah but you don't throw the hail mary this far out and then make someone completely change it. Shouldn't of made the bullish call to have it completely changed 6hrs later. Somthing more gradual would have been the way to go. +1. They should have waited for the GFS data too, imo. MKX put this out at 2:30pm. Winter Storm Waring Thursday Over Parts of Southern Wisconsin (Updated 230 pm 02/06) Another winter storm will affect parts of south-central, east-central and southeast Wisconsin late tonight through Thursday evening, February 7, 2013. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect from 600 am CST Thursday to Midnight Thursday Night roughly east of a line from Ripon to Beaver Dam to Lake Mills to Whitewater to Evansville and south to the Illinois border. Total snow accumulations for tonight and the calendar day Thursday of 5 to 8 inches are expected. Some sleet and freezing rain will mix in over parts of the area from time to time. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for tonight into Thursday for the remainder of the southeast two-thirds of Wisconsin. Total accumulations in the Advisory area will range from 2 to 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Winter Storm Warning out for Buffalo: 9-18 inches!!!!!! ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND COUNTIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.* TIMING...OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...5 TO 10 INCHES FRIDAY...4 TO 7 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF POTENTIALLY 9 TO 18 INCHES.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW MAY RAPIDLY COVER ROADWAYS MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOL at EC not issuing watches. Slam dunk for at least 6" for Toronto. Might be a slam dunk for 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 9-18 is quite the spread lol Buffalo NWS is usually really cautious when it comes to totals in synoptic storms. To see a number that high is VERY rare. I don't think I've seen a forecast in a watch for that high of a total in years. (Synoptic Storm, seen plenty higher than that for Lake Effect) Maybe they are thinking quite a bit of lake enhancement to up the totals south of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z GFS continues to stay snowy in northeast IL, looks like more QPF..better rates? What a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z GFS continues to stay snowy in northeast IL, looks like more QPF..better rates? What a forecast. punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS looks like a slighly colder version of the 18z NAM. Gotta be a reason why these models are trending snowy still. Evaporative cooling - I think is one element. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 never change geos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 and MKX was biting hard on the colder ones. With a disclaimer though. Updated AFD... LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM LAYER WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WI THU MORNING. WE ARE FAVORING THE CANADIAN...GFS...ECMWFAND MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF-ARW INSTEAD OF THE 12Z NAM GIVENTHEIR CONSISTENT COLDER SOLUTION. THE 12Z NAM CAME IN WARMER THANPREVIOUS RUNS AND WARMER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER...THE 18ZNAM CAME IN JUST A BIT COOLER. DISCLAIMER...A WARM NAM SOLUTION HASBEEN CORRECT WITH PAST STORMS...SO THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS COULDCHANGE IF OTHER MODELS BEGIN TO COME IN WITH A WARMER SOLUTION.MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THECOLUMN EVERYWHERE IN SOUTHERN WI AROUND 18Z TO 20Z...CHANGING ANYMIXED PRECIP INTO ALL SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOL at EC not issuing watches. Slam dunk for at least 6" for Toronto. Might be a slam dunk for 8" They're not withholding a watch because they don't think 6"+ amounts aren't going to verify. They're withholding it because they're uber cautious. I can only think of maybe two 3rd period WS watches EC has issued over the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I guess we wait for the 0z runs now, lol. Little bit more of the new MKX disco. THEN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL SET UPDIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN WI AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE UPPERMIDWEST. A BAND OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP FROM EASTERNIOWA THROUGH NORTHERN IL THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI AROUND 18Z THU AS THESURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND NORTHEASTINDIANA. THIS WILL GENERATE HEAVY PRECIP THAT MOST MODELS SUGGESTWILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.QPF IS GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE 12Z CANADIAN AND GFS WHICH SHIFTEDTHE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLYFORECAST. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE IN THE 8 TO 11:1 RANGE WITH LOWESTSOUTH AND HIGHEST NORTH. WENT WITH AROUND A 10:1 AT MKE AND MSN. 12ZECMWF CAME IN WITH QPF AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO CANADIAN AND GFS...WITHTHE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS EVEN FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. FORECASTSTORM TOTAL QPF IS A HALF INCH TO 0.80 INCH OF LIQUIDEQUIVALENT...HIGHEST SOUTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOT's newest AFD punts the overzealous GFS snowfall, for the most part. Good idea. Will hold the headlines until more info is available (0z runs, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 warnings and adv's stay a county south of me. only 4-5" over 24-30 hours forecasted here. was really looking forward to some synoptic type snow. good luck and congrats to those in the line of fire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like the 18z GFS joins the YYZ 1.00"+ QPF club. Although just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The warm solution has always been the way to go. Even with weak WAA LL's will torch enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's probably overdoing the lake influence at the surface. That's what is looks like to me. The NAM is the last model I trust though. The problem is that the layer above the surface (at the altitude above any lake influence which would probably be minor anyway) is above 0C...gotta find a way to cool that down to get more significant accumulations in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The problem is that the layer above the surface (at the altitude above any lake influence which would probably be minor anyway) is above 0C...gotta find a way to cool that down to get more significant accumulations in Chicago. Solidly above. Models tend not to whiff on something like that. Unless it's March 1998...and I'm basing that off the "warm" forecasts for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like the 18z GFS joins the YYZ 1.00"+ QPF club. Although just barely. So at this point do we have a single model left predicting under 10" for YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think that's a 25 -ubars/s contour. Serious dynamics. DGZ is not spectacular but it still spits out 20" of snow, using a couple of techniques. For entertainment purposes only of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So at this point do we have a single model left predicting under 10" for YYZ? 18z RGEM looked kind of funky. Seems to transfer energy to the coast more quickly, limiting moisture advection and dynamics. It's been atrocious all winter though so I wouldn't worry too much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The problem is that the layer above the surface (at the altitude above any lake influence which would probably be minor anyway) is above 0C...gotta find a way to cool that down to get more significant accumulations in Chicago. Need the low to track more towards your neck of the woods. Is it onshore yet? GFS pulls air in off the large snow covered areas to the north after 27 hours. Should be good enough to cool the column completely by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 At this time pending tonight's runs I would favor 2 inch snowfall along the I-80 corridor in northern IN. Am always concerned about ZR in a situation like this. Good snow cover in the area presently. And I remember posters, both met and enthusiast sometimes saying that the storm will tend to ride the border of snowfall, which presently seems to be pretty much the U.S. 30 corridor in IN. Do I cheer for CAA or WAA with this one? But simply amazing to see the forecast for Boston as has been mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like a rip and read from the 12z Euro op/ensembles. 2:6 HPC 3 day total QPF.gif nice, sounds a bit better than the OP for here. Although Id take the OP. Euro is by far the coldest, snowiest, and most consistent model for here. The NAM has been the warmest and least consistent. Despite those factors, and the simple fact it is the NAM, still makes me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z GFS a nice hit for all of Southeast MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Will see where the dry slot sets up. DTX thinks it will stay along 94. Im confused about this dry slot business this go around. When I think of dry slot, I think of heavy thump of snow, then dryslot to just flurries or drizzle, then see what the wraparound snow can do. this time I dont think its necessarily a dryslot, more than we wont see ANY of the initial waa snow, rather we will see ours as the line of precip charges through from about midnight to 10am Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z GFS a nice hit for all of Southeast MI. Id be curious for some input from stebo or other area mets. Is the NAM being its usual garbage self? I mean there is a pretty big difference....euro has us in the 20s with heavy snow, GFS near 30 with heavy snow, and NAM hovers around freezing with a brief few hour thump of rain/ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Id be curious for some input from stebo or other area mets. Is the NAM being its usual garbage self? I mean there is a pretty big difference....euro has us in the 20s with heavy snow, GFS near 30 with heavy snow, and NAM hovers around freezing with a brief few hour thump of rain/ice and snow. Simply put: The NAM is probably lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Id be curious for some input from stebo or other area mets. Is the NAM being its usual garbage self? I mean there is a pretty big difference....euro has us in the 20s with heavy snow, GFS near 30 with heavy snow, and NAM hovers around freezing with a brief few hour thump of rain/ice and snow. Can you really count on the NAM these days or ever for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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