toronto blizzard Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 http://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=scribe_x&tcid=XTO&tz=-5&station=TORONTO%20BLOOR&lat=43.6700000000&lon=-79.4000000000 21.9cm Nice!!! I will bookmark this site for sure. Nice find Blake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The NAM gives us a light glaze of freezing rain, the GFS a dusting of snow, and the GEM blasts us with heavy snow. About the usual model consensus for 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Cautiously optimistic. Clippers have missed us to the south and this is the Lake Effect screw zone, so would not mind a 12Z Euro or 00Z UKMET/GGEM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Sadly I tend to trust Euro > GFS > GEM > NAM although the Euro hasn't looked too terrible for some decent snow in Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The NAM gives us a light glaze of freezing rain, the GFS a dusting of snow, and the GEM blasts us with heavy snow. About the usual model consensus for 3 days out GEM FTW... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 The GEM looks good for Milwaukee as well. The 120 hour snowfall for SE Wisconsin into much of Lower Michigan is 15-20mm (equivalent to about 0.6-0.8QPF), which is pretty intriguing to say the least. The GEM has frequently overdone QPF, so who knows if it sticks, but the UKIE is onboard with the juice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The GEM looks good for Milwaukee as well. The 120 hour snowfall for SE Wisconsin into much of Lower Michigan is 15-20mm (equivalent to about 0.6-0.8QPF), which is pretty intriguing to say the least. The GEM has frequently overdone QPF, so who knows if it sticks, but the UKIE is onboard with the juice as well. Let's see what the EURO says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Let's see what the EURO says Yep, the 12z wasn't bad in terms of moisture, some areas in the Great Lakes would see over 0.25" QPF all snow based on the 12z Euro, more interested in thermal profiles as well, with the last Euro run being very borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Nice. Talk about the ultimate thread the needle event, the low starts to get going and intensify as it approaches our longitude, and WAA is on the move, so to somehow cash in on an event like this would be fortuitous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Does anyone have the Euro output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I think Euro/GEm look fairly similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Wunderground is taking it's sweet time tonight. Toronto folks gonna like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Wunderground is taking it's sweet time tonight. Toronto folks gonna like this. On Stormvista, it looks pretty good for NE Illinois/SE Wisconsin peeps. Small area of 0.25"+QPF right over your neighborhood Geos from 18z Thursday-00z Friday, and 850s should be cold enough for snow. Looks best for Central Lower Michigan, as it is not nearly as wet in SE Michigan as the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 On Stormvista, it looks pretty good for NE Illinois/SE Wisconsin peeps. Small area of 0.25"+QPF right over your neighborhood Geos from 18z Thursday-00z Friday, and 850s should be cold enough for snow. What about YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Pending the column is below freezing above 850mb, the Euro drops 2-4" on northeast IL or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 What about YYZ? Very nice hit for Toronto, looks like you get hit with two straight six hour periods of 0.25"+QPF. More importantly, you are easily below freezing through at least the lower part of the column (850-surface). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looks like a brief period of sleet before it turns to a cold light rain here. Another kick in the crotch for this area, but sure hope this thing can finally deliver the goods to the Toronto area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Very nice hit for Toronto, looks like you get hit with two straight six hour periods of 0.25"+QPF. So that would equate to 0.4''-0.5'' QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looks like a brief period of sleet before it turns to a cold light rain here. Another kick in the crotch for this area, but sure hope this thing can finally deliver the goods to the Toronto area. That would be unduly harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 lol @ giving out stormvista links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 smdh Throw me a QPF number for KMOP if you don't mind? Wunderground is stuck at hr 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Throw me a QPF number for KMOP if you don't mind? Wunderground is stuck at hr 66. THU 06Z 07-FEB -5.8 -6.3 1025 82 96 0.01 550 531 THU 12Z 07-FEB -5.8 -4.1 1024 85 100 0.08 550 532 THU 18Z 07-FEB -4.4 -5.4 1022 73 100 0.05 550 533 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -3.8 -6.2 1018 91 100 0.23 547 533 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -3.4 -8.4 1017 92 99 0.39 540 527 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -5.0 -8.7 1022 84 82 0.05 541 524 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 THU 06Z 07-FEB -5.8 -6.3 1025 82 96 0.01 550 531 THU 12Z 07-FEB -5.8 -4.1 1024 85 100 0.08 550 532 THU 18Z 07-FEB -4.4 -5.4 1022 73 100 0.05 550 533 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -3.8 -6.2 1018 91 100 0.23 547 533 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -3.4 -8.4 1017 92 99 0.39 540 527 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -5.0 -8.7 1022 84 82 0.05 541 524 Holy crap...Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So that would equate to 0.4''-0.5'' QPF? EURO's juicier than that. Probably easily over 0.6" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS and especially the GEFS are slowly coming around to the EURO/GGEM/UKIE consensus. Would not be surprised if we see this tick south a bit over time, but it seems now that it's within 72 hours any kind of drastic changes are more unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS and especially the GEFS are slowly coming around to the EURO/GGEM/UKIE consensus. Would not be surprised if we see this tick south a bit over time, but it seems now that it's within 72 hours any kind of drastic changes are more unlikely. I agree. It looks like there will be some form of phasing between the northern and southern stream and that will help produce decent precip/snow values over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 EC saying 8.5-10" possible on Thursday. Crazy. For some reason though, I'm really not expecting much. Maybe I've become a cynic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 EC saying 8.5-10" possible on Thursday. Crazy. For some reason though, I'm really not expecting much. Maybe I've become a cynic. You're not alone. I waiting for the other shoe to drop. It's hard not to considering how things have gone. But the models will have to screw up monumentally for this not to at least deliver a widespread 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You're not alone. I waiting for the other shoe to drop. It's hard not to considering how things have gone. But the models will have to screw up monumentally for this not to at least deliver a widespread 2-3". Most amped up GFS run yet. 4-8" event possible given that for you and me both. But yeah, model agreement is increasing in terms of healthier precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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