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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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NAM still liking 1.25"+ for Toronto. Wish the dryslot wasn't so close though. Considering how they're almost always underdone by the models it has me slightly concerned and another reason I'm not honkinh any 10"+ numbers.

So we have consensus in all the major models for good QPF. Now of only that dry slot............

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So we have consensus in all the major models for good QPF. Now of only that dry slot............

 

I can't see this thing going anymore north. I'd be surprised if that dry slot hurts the GTA. Hamilton on the other hand could be in trouble. Most of the models seem to follow suite after the Euro so I'm most curious to see the 00Z Euro tonight.

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Watches issued to the west in Michigan and to the east in New York, but barely a peep from EC in Ontario. I have a bad feeling this is going to catch a lot of people off-guard on Friday, especially since there's been very little hype surrounding this storm here. (Compared to the Boxing Day storm which had been talked about almost a week in advance)

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must of not updated yet for out by me.

 

Still 3-5" in zones.

 

 

Tonight A slight chance of freezing rain before 3am, then rain or freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 31. South wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.

 

Thursday Rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet before noon, then rain, possibly mixed with snow. High near 36. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

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Oakland County...

 

 

. Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday evening through
Friday morning... 

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Thursday evening
through Friday morning. 

Hazardous weather... 

* snow is expected to increase in intensity Thursday evening 
   and persist into Thursday night. 

* Total snowfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are possible... with
   the highest totals along the Interstate 69 corridor.

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Lower levels are scorching on the 18z NAM for ORD. Wet bulb heights of 3900 and 4700ft not going to cut it. UGN has the same issue, but cools faster. Sneaky warm layer early for MKE, but it gets overcome. 

 

It's probably overdoing the lake influence at the surface. That's what is looks like to me.

 

The NAM is the last model I trust though.

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agree...probably pretty decent.  Unfortunately massive shift from previous version just 6 hours ago but that was a junk graphic

 

Weenie logic, but probably best for you all that they downgrade before the event starts. Then you can reel it back in tomorrow. :D

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Tonight A slight chance of freezing rain before 3am, then rain or freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 31. South wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.

 

Thursday Rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet before noon, then rain, possibly mixed with snow. High near 36. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

 

what a horrible move by TRS, feel bad for the forecaster that had to work after him this afternoon.

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I mean, on one hand I dont blame him. We are teetering between a bit snow, or all rain. Tough forecast.

 

yeah but you don't throw the hail mary this far out and then make someone completely change it. Shouldn't of made the bullish call to have it completely changed 6hrs later. Somthing more gradual would have been the way to go.

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