toronto blizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM still liking 1.25"+ for Toronto. Wish the dryslot wasn't so close though. Considering how they're almost always underdone by the models it has me slightly concerned and another reason I'm not honkinh any 10"+ numbers. So we have consensus in all the major models for good QPF. Now of only that dry slot............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So we have consensus in all the major models for good QPF. Now of only that dry slot............ I can't see this thing going anymore north. I'd be surprised if that dry slot hurts the GTA. Hamilton on the other hand could be in trouble. Most of the models seem to follow suite after the Euro so I'm most curious to see the 00Z Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like a rip and read from the 12z Euro op/ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Watches issued by DTX for 94 north. Not surprised. 4-8" north of 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 EC whimped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Watches issued to the west in Michigan and to the east in New York, but barely a peep from EC in Ontario. I have a bad feeling this is going to catch a lot of people off-guard on Friday, especially since there's been very little hype surrounding this storm here. (Compared to the Boxing Day storm which had been talked about almost a week in advance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That's quite a lot of moisture, but very NAM like. Southern Ontario looks golden for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOT dropped accums to nothing for non-watch counties and added zr...saw that coming. Not sure why they ever went bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOT dropped accums to nothing for non-watch counties and added zr...saw that coming. Not sure why they ever went bullish. must of not updated yet for out by me. Still 3-5" in zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 EC whimped out. Still holding at 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Watches issued by DTX for 94 north. Not surprised. 4-8" north of 59 Nice to be under a watch. South shift please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lower levels are scorching on the 18z NAM for ORD. Wet bulb heights of 3900 and 4700ft not going to cut it. UGN has the same issue, but cools faster. Sneaky warm layer early for MKE, but it gets overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 must of not updated yet for out by me. Still 3-5" in zones. Tonight A slight chance of freezing rain before 3am, then rain or freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 31. South wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Thursday Rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet before noon, then rain, possibly mixed with snow. High near 36. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 EC whimped out. Damn them. Honestly though warningsin Michigan and new York and you would think they'd get the memo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Oakland County... . Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday evening throughFriday morning... The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued aWinter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Thursday eveningthrough Friday morning. Hazardous weather... * snow is expected to increase in intensity Thursday evening and persist into Thursday night. * Total snowfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are possible... with the highest totals along the Interstate 69 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lower levels are scorching on the 18z NAM for ORD. Wet bulb heights of 3900 and 4700ft not going to cut it. UGN has the same issue, but cools faster. Sneaky warm layer early for MKE, but it gets overcome. It's probably overdoing the lake influence at the surface. That's what is looks like to me. The NAM is the last model I trust though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's probably overdoing the lake influence at the surface. That's what is looks like to me. The NAM is the last model I trust though. LOT is biting hard on warmer solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOT dropped accums to nothing for non-watch counties and added zr...saw that coming. Not sure why they ever went bullish. New snowfall map. Looks good IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Watches issued by DTX for 94 north. Not surprised. 4-8" north of 59 Nice to see them post the watch. Hopefully we can get 4-5 here along 59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOT is biting hard on warmer solutions After 6 hours ago they bit hard on colder solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 New snowfall map. Looks good IMO. 2:6 LOT snowfall 3pm.png agree...probably pretty decent. Unfortunately massive shift from previous version just 6 hours ago but that was a junk graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOT is biting hard on warmer solutions And MKX bites hard on the colder solutions. I think a GFS/EURO blend is that way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 agree...probably pretty decent. Unfortunately massive shift from previous version just 6 hours ago but that was a junk graphic Weenie logic, but probably best for you all that they downgrade before the event starts. Then you can reel it back in tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Tonight A slight chance of freezing rain before 3am, then rain or freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 31. South wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Thursday Rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet before noon, then rain, possibly mixed with snow. High near 36. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. what a horrible move by TRS, feel bad for the forecaster that had to work after him this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nice to see them post the watch. Hopefully we can get 4-5 here along 59. Will see where the dry slot sets up. DTX thinks it will stay along 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOT is biting hard on warmer solutions and MKX was biting hard on the colder ones. Screw it, booking ticket to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I mean, it's a tough call and it's not like we are waivering between major snowstorm and nothing. It's a fine line between modest nuisance snow and cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 what a horrible move by TRS, feel bad for the forecaster that had to work after him this afternoon. I mean, on one hand I dont blame him. We are teetering between a bit snow, or all rain. Tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Tough forecast it is for NE IL. Models only take you so far. Like I said earlier, I wouldn't want to be the one making the calls...even in a non-major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I mean, on one hand I dont blame him. We are teetering between a bit snow, or all rain. Tough forecast. yeah but you don't throw the hail mary this far out and then make someone completely change it. Shouldn't of made the bullish call to have it completely changed 6hrs later. Somthing more gradual would have been the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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