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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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15z SREF individual and mean total QPF for MI and ON folks.

 

attachicon.gif2:6 15z SREF total QPF.gif

 

Clinging to the edge of that 125 line. Not really expecting anything close to those kind of amounts but a man can dream. Looks like the north shore of Lake Ontario (Oshawa, Belleville, Kingston) is going to be the place to be in Ontario at least. 

 

See you later, Boston. It was nice knowing you.

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This is like the 4th storm this year where the NAM has given false hope inside 24 hours...i'll never learn.

 

It have me a lot of false hope in GHD. I learned then. Funny thing is, you used to be able to rely on its thermals...but now it seems it's cool biased in the near term.

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Haha not sure why I have any optimism on this one. We can bump my calls tomorrow when I fail miserably.

NAM has been scary bad this winter. GFS has been the best loser for the past few impulses.

 

GFS typical gets more solutions right compared to the NAM. It nailed down the first two clipper pretty well, I'd say.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

309 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

GRR issues warnings..

MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-

MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-

INGHAM-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...REED CITY...

CLARE...HART...FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS...MOUNT PLEASANT...MUSKEGON...

GREENVILLE...ALMA...JENISON...GRAND RAPIDS...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...

HOLLAND...HASTINGS...CHARLOTTE...LANSING

309 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EST

FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO

NOON EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY

FRIDAY MORNING.

* TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS

MAY SEE MORE THAN 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

* SNOW WILL BE WET AND HEAVY IN NATURE.

IMPACTS...

* TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT

WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG.

&&

$$

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lol @ EC not even going with a watch. I know the brunt of the storm now looks like Friday morning, but geez. You're not going to get much higher probability for a 3rd-4th period event.

With the way the Boxing Day storm went, EC might wait until there is 6" of snow on the ground already before making a statement. I hope I'm proven wrong but they always seem to be way too bullish or not reactive enough.

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lol @ EC not even going with a watch. I know the brunt of the storm now looks like Friday morning, but geez. You're not going to get much higher probability for a 3rd-4th period event.

 

They still have 10-15cm "is possible" in the SWS. I think its safe to say that 20-30cm "is possible" at this point. Heaviest rates hit right during the Friday morning commute. People need to plan... its going to be a mess on the roads

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