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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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Do you have the euro qpf for MSN? Thanks...

12z ECMWF text list...Short version...

DVN:

THU 12Z 07-FEB   2.1     3.4    1016      84      87    0.04     556     543   
THU 18Z 07-FEB   3.1     1.9    1015      91      99    0.07     554     542    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB   0.7    -1.0    1014      99      96    0.32     550     538    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB   0.2    -3.8    1019      89      37    0.02     544     529
MKE:
THU 06Z 07-FEB   0.0     0.0    1021      83      99    0.01     554     537   
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.1    -1.0    1020      87      93    0.05     553     537    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.5    -1.4    1018      92     100    0.15     552     538    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -0.1    -4.4    1015      97     100    0.36     549     537    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -1.2    -7.3    1016      92      96    0.33     541     528    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -2.4    -7.8    1022      85      42    0.05     542     525
ORD:
THU 18Z 07-FEB   1.9     1.0    1017      82      88    0.03     554     541   
FRI 00Z 08-FEB   1.0    -1.0    1013      95     100    0.08     551     541    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB   0.1    -5.6    1014      93      85    0.24     544     532    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -1.1    -6.6    1020      87      59    0.02     543     527    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -0.9    -5.4    1026      75      19    0.01     550     529
LAF:
FRI 06Z 08-FEB   4.7     0.4    1011      96      95    0.18     552     543   
FRI 12Z 08-FEB   0.2    -4.5    1017      87      47    0.02     546     532
GRR:
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -4.0    -1.9    1023      84      95    0.01     553     535   
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.1    -2.5    1020      75     100    0.01     553     537    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -0.3    -1.6    1015      85      98    0.05     550     538    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -2.3    -4.1    1013      91      99    0.32     545     535    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -2.9    -7.6    1017      85      97    0.16     539     525    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -2.6    -6.7    1023      67      16    0.02     543     525
DTW:
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -1.1    -0.1    1012      86      99    0.02     550     540   
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -1.7    -3.4    1010      93      79    0.33     543     535    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -2.8    -6.8    1018      75      83    0.05     540     526
YYZ:
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -5.5   -11.5    1029      73      96    0.01     548     526   
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -3.1    -8.6    1028      64      98    0.01     550     528    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -4.3    -6.0    1026      80     100    0.05     550     530    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -3.3    -5.6    1021      82      90    0.09     548     532    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -4.2    -6.4    1016      86     100    0.23     545     533    
FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -7.9    -7.6    1016      86     100    0.69     541     528    
SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -9.1    -9.6    1020      80      99    0.21     536     521    
SAT 06Z 09-FEB -10.8   -10.5    1023      81      60    0.03     538     520

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Total and complete wild a** guess. Conservative if one looks at a few models...but the forecasted QPF amounts out there are a little mind boggling.

I'm very curious to see what happens out there. Flake fracturing may tend to keep the ratios down at least for part of the storm, but all in all something around 2 feet seems like a good starting point and can always adjust upward if model consensus holds.

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Do you have the euro qpf for MSN? Thanks...

MSN:

THU 06Z 07-FEB   0.1     0.0    1020      83      99    0.02     554     538   
THU 12Z 07-FEB   0.1     0.2    1018      88      88    0.07     553     538    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.0    -1.5    1017      94     100    0.16     551     538    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -0.4    -5.1    1016      96      97    0.39     547     534    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -3.0    -6.2    1020      90      90    0.16     542     526    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -6.2    -6.5    1025      84      32    0.01     545     526
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MSN:

THU 06Z 07-FEB   0.1     0.0    1020      83      99    0.02     554     538   
THU 12Z 07-FEB   0.1     0.2    1018      88      88    0.07     553     538    
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.0    -1.5    1017      94     100    0.16     551     538    
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -0.4    -5.1    1016      96      97    0.39     547     534    
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -3.0    -6.2    1020      90      90    0.16     542     526    
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -6.2    -6.5    1025      84      32    0.01     545     526

.81, I'll take it!

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MKX favoring the colder solutions.

 

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM LAYER WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WI THU MORNING. ACTUALLY FAVORING THE CANADIAN...GFS AND OLD ECMWF AND MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF-ARW INSTEAD OF THE NEW NAM GIVEN THE CONSISTENT COLDER SOLUTION. THE 12Z NAM CAME IN WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND WARMER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FAVORING A BLEND OF THE CANADIAN AND GFS 12Z MODEL QPF WHICH SHIFTS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP WEST THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE IN THE 8 TO 11:1 RANGE WITH LOWEST SOUTH AND HIGHEST NORTH. WENT WITH AROUND A 10:1 AT MKE AND MSN.

...WINTER STORM HEADING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... .SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN SOUTH AND WEST OF A JANESVILLE TO BARABOO LINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WITH SNOW EXPECTED MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT PASSES BY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD OCCUR FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

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From earlier...but stillllll DRY SLOT MENTIONED...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1219 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN SOUTHEAST

MICHIGAN. SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM AN UPSTREAM WAVE WILL ENTER THIS

EVENING...AND MOST STRATOCU OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD BLOW NORTH

OF FNT. A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WILL START AFFECTING FLIGHT RULES

FROM 06 THURSDAY ONWARD AS A WINTER STORM DRAWS NEARER. FNT-MBS WILL

SEE -SN MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH A DROP TO OCCL IFR EXPECTED.

FOR DTW...CIGS DROP TO IFR AND ALSO SOME BR DEVELOPING LATE IN THE

FORECAST PERIOD. THE DROP TO 5K FT CIGS MAY BE DELAYED AS LATE AS 21Z

THU IF THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERCOMES THE BROAD MOISTURE FLUX.

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