snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Little worried about temp profiles in SE WI to be honest, as WAA can be sneaky...but I like this right now. Alek: 0.1" Boston: 23.4" Geos: 2.3" MKE: 6.8" MSN: 6.0" ORD: 0.8" Suckville: 8.5" Toronto: 9.8" Man that 23.4" looks yummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Man that 23.4" looks yummy. Total and complete wild a** guess. Conservative if one looks at a few models...but the forecasted QPF amounts out there are a little mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Do you have the euro qpf for MSN? Thanks... 12z ECMWF text list...Short version... DVN: THU 12Z 07-FEB 2.1 3.4 1016 84 87 0.04 556 543 THU 18Z 07-FEB 3.1 1.9 1015 91 99 0.07 554 542 FRI 00Z 08-FEB 0.7 -1.0 1014 99 96 0.32 550 538 FRI 06Z 08-FEB 0.2 -3.8 1019 89 37 0.02 544 529MKE:THU 06Z 07-FEB 0.0 0.0 1021 83 99 0.01 554 537 THU 12Z 07-FEB -0.1 -1.0 1020 87 93 0.05 553 537 THU 18Z 07-FEB 0.5 -1.4 1018 92 100 0.15 552 538 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -0.1 -4.4 1015 97 100 0.36 549 537 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -1.2 -7.3 1016 92 96 0.33 541 528 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -2.4 -7.8 1022 85 42 0.05 542 525ORD:THU 18Z 07-FEB 1.9 1.0 1017 82 88 0.03 554 541 FRI 00Z 08-FEB 1.0 -1.0 1013 95 100 0.08 551 541 FRI 06Z 08-FEB 0.1 -5.6 1014 93 85 0.24 544 532 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -1.1 -6.6 1020 87 59 0.02 543 527 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -0.9 -5.4 1026 75 19 0.01 550 529LAF:FRI 06Z 08-FEB 4.7 0.4 1011 96 95 0.18 552 543 FRI 12Z 08-FEB 0.2 -4.5 1017 87 47 0.02 546 532GRR:THU 12Z 07-FEB -4.0 -1.9 1023 84 95 0.01 553 535 THU 18Z 07-FEB 0.1 -2.5 1020 75 100 0.01 553 537 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -0.3 -1.6 1015 85 98 0.05 550 538 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -2.3 -4.1 1013 91 99 0.32 545 535 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -2.9 -7.6 1017 85 97 0.16 539 525 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -2.6 -6.7 1023 67 16 0.02 543 525DTW:FRI 06Z 08-FEB -1.1 -0.1 1012 86 99 0.02 550 540 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -1.7 -3.4 1010 93 79 0.33 543 535 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -2.8 -6.8 1018 75 83 0.05 540 526YYZ:THU 12Z 07-FEB -5.5 -11.5 1029 73 96 0.01 548 526 THU 18Z 07-FEB -3.1 -8.6 1028 64 98 0.01 550 528 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -4.3 -6.0 1026 80 100 0.05 550 530 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -3.3 -5.6 1021 82 90 0.09 548 532 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -4.2 -6.4 1016 86 100 0.23 545 533 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -7.9 -7.6 1016 86 100 0.69 541 528 SAT 00Z 09-FEB -9.1 -9.6 1020 80 99 0.21 536 521 SAT 06Z 09-FEB -10.8 -10.5 1023 81 60 0.03 538 520 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If anyone has bufkit, run a NAM KBOS sounding plot, funniest thing I have ever seen. Genius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm still liking my 1-4" call. The GGEM has the rain/snow line right over downtown much of the time. And lol at Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Total and complete wild a** guess. Conservative if one looks at a few models...but the forecasted QPF amounts out there are a little mind boggling. I'm very curious to see what happens out there. Flake fracturing may tend to keep the ratios down at least for part of the storm, but all in all something around 2 feet seems like a good starting point and can always adjust upward if model consensus holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Interesting, MKX takes out all mention of a mix across the border in Kenosha. ~5-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Do you have the euro qpf for MSN? Thanks...MSN: THU 06Z 07-FEB 0.1 0.0 1020 83 99 0.02 554 538 THU 12Z 07-FEB 0.1 0.2 1018 88 88 0.07 553 538 THU 18Z 07-FEB 0.0 -1.5 1017 94 100 0.16 551 538 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -0.4 -5.1 1016 96 97 0.39 547 534 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -3.0 -6.2 1020 90 90 0.16 542 526 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -6.2 -6.5 1025 84 32 0.01 545 526 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Interesting, MKX takes out all mention of a mix across the border in Kenosha. ~5-7" I'll take that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 MSN...0.43" to 0.81" in one run. Snow magnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 MSN: THU 06Z 07-FEB 0.1 0.0 1020 83 99 0.02 554 538 THU 12Z 07-FEB 0.1 0.2 1018 88 88 0.07 553 538 THU 18Z 07-FEB 0.0 -1.5 1017 94 100 0.16 551 538 FRI 00Z 08-FEB -0.4 -5.1 1016 96 97 0.39 547 534 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -3.0 -6.2 1020 90 90 0.16 542 526 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -6.2 -6.5 1025 84 32 0.01 545 526 .81, I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 MKX favoring the colder solutions. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM LAYER WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WI THU MORNING. ACTUALLY FAVORING THE CANADIAN...GFS AND OLD ECMWF AND MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF-ARW INSTEAD OF THE NEW NAM GIVEN THE CONSISTENT COLDER SOLUTION. THE 12Z NAM CAME IN WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND WARMER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FAVORING A BLEND OF THE CANADIAN AND GFS 12Z MODEL QPF WHICH SHIFTS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP WEST THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE IN THE 8 TO 11:1 RANGE WITH LOWEST SOUTH AND HIGHEST NORTH. WENT WITH AROUND A 10:1 AT MKE AND MSN. ...WINTER STORM HEADING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... .SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN SOUTH AND WEST OF A JANESVILLE TO BARABOO LINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WITH SNOW EXPECTED MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT PASSES BY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD OCCUR FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 From earlier...but stillllll DRY SLOT MENTIONED... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1219 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM AN UPSTREAM WAVE WILL ENTER THIS EVENING...AND MOST STRATOCU OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD BLOW NORTH OF FNT. A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WILL START AFFECTING FLIGHT RULES FROM 06 THURSDAY ONWARD AS A WINTER STORM DRAWS NEARER. FNT-MBS WILL SEE -SN MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH A DROP TO OCCL IFR EXPECTED. FOR DTW...CIGS DROP TO IFR AND ALSO SOME BR DEVELOPING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DROP TO 5K FT CIGS MAY BE DELAYED AS LATE AS 21Z THU IF THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERCOMES THE BROAD MOISTURE FLUX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 One thing that's dissuading me from going nuts with amounts (10"+) is the fact that this that low amplitude hybrid storm really doesn't fit the bill as far as what climo would tell you is a footer storm for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You may have to edit your signature after this SSC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 early guess is NAM will be warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You may have to edit your signature after this SSC.. That was the last time Toronto had a major snowstorm. Feb 6th 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That was the last time Toronto had a major snowstorm. Feb 6th 2008. as indicated by "WINTER STORM FREE SINCE" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That was the last time Toronto had a major snowstorm. Feb 6th 2008. March 2008 blizzard. Otherwise, that would be something...5 years almost to the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Update 2/6: Clipperville Takes Hold of Our Weather With the Strongest of the Systems Due Thursday Into Friday http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/02/clipperville-takes-hold-of-our-weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 early guess is NAM will be warmer I'll guess colder. 0°C line a bit further south. --- Milwaukee's call on accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 March 2008 blizzard. Otherwise, that would be something...5 years almost to the date. Oops. Forgot about December 19, 2008. Last 8"+ March 2008. Last 12"+ February 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 as indicated by "WINTER STORM FREE SINCE" Ok I get it you're upset at how this winter is going for YBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro snow map with 3" along/north of 88. 6" line at the IL/WI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ok I get it you're upset at how this winter is going for YBY ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'll guess colder. 0°C line a bit further south. --- your guess looks better so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 looks like we'll get a classic 18z NAM false hope weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Classic dry slot party for S/E Michigan.....but thn again it's the nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snohio Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ok I get it you're upset at how this winter is going for YBY I got the impression he said you would have to update it because you are going to get a good snowstorm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 looks like we'll get a classic 18z NAM false hope weenie run You're disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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