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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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Seems they're an ever changing product, but latest point and click for ORD. 

 

Thursday: Freezing rain and sleet before 9am, then freezing rain and sleet, possibly mixed with snow between 9am and noon, then snow and sleet after noon. High near 33. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

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Seems they're an ever changing product, but latest point and click for ORD. 

 

Thursday: Freezing rain and sleet before 9am, then freezing rain and sleet, possibly mixed with snow between 9am and noon, then snow and sleet after noon. High near 33. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

 

 

a new one for Baum's signature

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The 12z GFS Cobb output for ORD IS 7" and 1" for MDW, which probably is a bit overdone for ORD but along with other guidance it suggests a heck of a gradient across the city. Still lots of uncertainty. The overall trend has been for colder, especially when accounting for wet bulbing. Interested to see what the Euro has to offer, because it's been the coldest model for this event. Based on the thermal profiles I've looked at, I don't think there's much of a freezing rain threat for downtown and north, especially once to the late am/early afternoon. The issue will be how much sleet if any mixes in and snowfall rates, given the marginal surface temps. The thing in favor of heavy rates and dynamic cooling keeping ptype as snow I88 or I80 and north during the afternoon is an excellent fgen band comes across along with large scale lift from the midlevel wave approaching from the west, while temperatures aloft are cooling a few degrees.

 

Good information.

 

I remember the over running event on the 27th was supposed to be more sleet and some freezing rain, but ended up almost entirely snow here. Tricky forecast. This system will definitely be a thread the needle event around here.

 

Right now I got 3-7" forecasted.

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Good information.

 

I remember the over running event on the 27th was supposed to be more sleet and some freezing rain, but ended up almost entirely snow here. Tricky forecast. This system will definitely be a thread the needle event around here.

 

Right now I got 3-7" forecasted.

 

 

you're in as good of a position as anyone in LOT that's for sure

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