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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm

wisconsinwx

By wisconsinwx,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Love me a Alek vs. LOT (TRS) battle

 

945 AM CST

BASED ON OUTPUT FROM 06Z RUN OF GFS/GFS-ENSEMBLE AND GEM PLUS THE

12Z RUN OF THE NAM...MODELS PROG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW

OVERNIGHT AND THU TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 100 AND 200 MI FURTHER

S. BASED ON THESE MORE SOUTHERN TRACKS WARM AIR ADVECTION WOULD

NOT OCCUR AS FAR N ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS

RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE MAINLY

SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND A

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX S. THU MORNING THE S SHOULD WARM ENOUGH

FOR JUST RAIN...WHILE THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SNOW AND SLEET

AND A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE NORTH WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET IN

THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE I-80 CORRIDOR MAY CHANGE TO A SNOW AND SLEET

MIX WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN JUST RAIN.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THU

EVENING COULD BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE N OF I-88...2 TO 4

INCHES BETWEEN I-88 AND I-80...1 TO 2 INCHES S OF I-80 AND 1 TO 2

INCHES SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE AND ILLINOIS RIVERS.

THESE ADJUSTMENTS ARE PRELIMINARY AS EXAMINATION AND EVALUATION

OF MORE NEW MODEL OUTPUT AND GUIDANCE AS IT COMES IN THIS MORNING

IS STILL NEEDED TO ATTEMPT TO NARROW THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND FURTHER REFINEMENT OF TIMING...

LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF THE VARIOUS PRECIP TYPES.

A WINTER WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR LAKE AND MCHENRY

COUNTY WHERE 6+ INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREAS FROM AROUND I-88 AND I-80. 

 

 

The truth will probably be pretty close to the middle.  I'll say 2-4" for those northern counties in Illinois (McHenry and Lake).  Better chance of 3-6" in SE Wisconsin, and Alek's neighborhood may only see an inch or two of sloppy wet snow at the end.  Hopefully this trends just a tad south or at least colder to make us feel like we have more breathing room.

 

 

I think this is the right idea.  Lots of slushy freezing rain that doesn't accrete very effectively because of warmish surfaces and a sloppy coating.  LOT and others much smarter than me disagree so high bust potential but I'll ride my gut and stick with .7"

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tuanis

tuanis

Posted
Posted

I think this is the right idea.  Lots of slushy freezing rain that doesn't accrete very effectively because of warmish surfaces and a sloppy coating.  LOT and others much smarter than me disagree so high bust potential but I'll ride my gut and stick with .7"

I'm in Alek's camp on this one, not expecting any accumulation in the city - maybe a slushy glaze of garbage. Too warm & wet, even with recent models pushing things further south. I doubt anyone south of Milwaukee county sees anything beyond an inch or two, but I've been very wrong before.

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

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Posted

I think this is the right idea. Lots of slushy freezing rain that doesn't accrete very effectively because of warmish surfaces and a sloppy coating. LOT and others much smarter than me disagree so high bust potential but I'll ride my gut and stick with .7"

The 12z GFS Cobb output for ORD IS 7" and 1" for MDW, which probably is a bit overdone for ORD but along with other guidance it suggests a heck of a gradient across the city. Still lots of uncertainty. The overall trend has been for colder, especially when accounting for wet bulbing. Interested to see what the Euro has to offer, because it's been the coldest model for this event. Based on the thermal profiles I've looked at, I don't think there's much of a freezing rain threat for downtown and north, especially once to the late am/early afternoon. The issue will be how much sleet if any mixes in and snowfall rates, given the marginal surface temps. The thing in favor of heavy rates and dynamic cooling keeping ptype as snow I88 or I80 and north during the afternoon is an excellent fgen band comes across along with large scale lift from the midlevel wave approaching from the west, while temperatures aloft are cooling a few degrees.

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

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Text from Caplan regarding their microcast...4-7" city and north. Last night at 10pm it had hardly anything.

 

Same old song and dance every storm, go through many of the major models having a decent hit, then Skilling and Caplan's RPMs/microcasts showing the same, bullish totals, only to see that they were off the rocker bullish again and again.  Maybe they will be closer to correct this time?  Maybe?

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS Cobb output for ORD IS 7" and 1" for MDW, which probably is a bit overdone for ORD but along with other guidance it suggests a heck of a gradient across the city. Still lots of uncertainty. The overall trend has been for colder, especially when accounting for wet bulbing. Interested to see what the Euro has to offer, because it's been the coldest model for this event. Based on the thermal profiles I've looked at, I don't think there's much of a freezing rain threat for downtown and north, especially once to the late am/early afternoon. The issue will be how much sleet if any mixes in and snowfall rates, given the marginal surface temps. The thing in favor of heavy rates and dynamic cooling keeping ptype as snow I88 or I80 and north during the afternoon is an excellent fgen band comes across along with large scale lift from the midlevel wave approaching from the west, while temperatures aloft are cooling a few degrees.

 

well said. DPA with 6.1" for Cobb output, high but interesting.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS Cobb output for ORD IS 7" and 1" for MDW, which probably is a bit overdone for ORD but along with other guidance it suggests a heck of a gradient across the city. Still lots of uncertainty. The overall trend has been for colder, especially when accounting for wet bulbing. Interested to see what the Euro has to offer, because it's been the coldest model for this event. Based on the thermal profiles I've looked at, I don't think there's much of a freezing rain threat for downtown and north, especially once to the late am/early afternoon. The issue will be how much sleet if any mixes in and snowfall rates, given the marginal surface temps. The thing in favor of heavy rates and dynamic cooling keeping ptype as snow I88 or I80 and north during the afternoon is an excellent fgen band comes across along with large scale lift from the midlevel wave approaching from the west.

 

I'm pretty much due east from ORD at 5000 North (pretty sure there is a spotter or NWS employee in Rogers Park nearby) so it will be interesting to see if there is a gradient from the loop to my apartment.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Pretty deep layer of temps hanging near 0C on the models for parts of northern IL etc. I'm sure these are the kind of storms that make forecasters pull their hair out.

 

We'll have to watch radar trends to see where the best returns track...might be a window for overperformance but any screw holes or crap returns and it's bust city.

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Harry Perry

Harry Perry

Posted
Posted

I'm startling to think that southern lower Michigan might get a decent snowfall event out of this too.

Seems each hour the amount increases by the inch... Two days ago it looked like 1-2" around here, now we're pushing 6". I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see GRR extend the WSW south to include the I-94 corridor and IWX to add the first two rows too.

At this point in time, and winter of 12-13 thus far... I'm wiling to say 2-12" for GRR, LAN, AZO, MKE.... --- some pun intended.

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harrisale

harrisale

Posted
Posted

Whats going on? Just saw a tweet about a foot of snow in Toronto now you all talking up big amounts im on my phone right now fantasy run or something brewing?

 

 

Where have you been? haha

 

Legitimate shot at a foot of snow for YYZ. Likely in the 8-10" range, although 12" is not out of the question IMO.

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