February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm

[wisconsinwx]

The 12z RGEM snow accumulation QPF amounts are impressive (20-25mm, equivalent to 0.8-1.0" QPF in far SE Wisconsin).  Not sure what to think, could be lined up for very heavy cement thrasher, but one little thing is off, and it's probably a sleet and freezing rain parade or less QPF.

[Chicago WX]

0z Euro snowfall map, for inquiring minds...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39203-feb-8th-9th-potential-significant-coastal-storm/?p=2077409'>http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39203-feb-8th-9th-potential-significant-coastal-storm/?p=2077409

[A-L-E-K]

The 12z RGEM snow accumulation QPF amounts are impressive (20-25mm, equivalent to 0.8-1.0" QPF in far SE Wisconsin).  Not sure what to think, could be lined up for very heavy cement thrasher, but one little thing is off, and it's probably a sleet and freezing rain parade or less QPF.

 

 

The GFS looks good for you, ride it.  The RGEM is NAM-level junk this year.

[Chicago Storm]

LOT going bullish with a WSW for Lake and McHenry Co's.

[A-L-E-K]

0z Euro snowfall map, for inquiring minds...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39203-feb-8th-9th-potential-significant-coastal-storm/?p=2077409

 

 

I'll take the under on that 2"

[Brewers]

The GFS looks good for you, ride it.  The RGEM is NAM-level junk this year.

 

Agreed the GFS has been solid the past couple weeks.

[A-L-E-K]

LOT going bullish with a WSW for Lake and McHenry Co's.

 

 

 

99% chance that 4" for us busts hardcore…Mchenry and Lake are probably headline worthy because even if they fall short on amounts will be largely frozen.

[wisconsinwx]

The GFS looks good for you, ride it.  The RGEM is NAM-level junk this year.

 

I still don't feel like riding anything.  This year has been filled with so many close calls on precip type and close on a couple of bigger storms, it's hard for me to feel like riding anything.

[Chicago WX]

Grats Geos. 

[Brewers]

The 12z RGEM snow accumulation QPF amounts are impressive (20-25mm, equivalent to 0.8-1.0" QPF in far SE Wisconsin).  Not sure what to think, could be lined up for very heavy cement thrasher, but one little thing is off, and it's probably a sleet and freezing rain parade or less QPF.

 

Better than the 00z run which had us all rain. Looks like its more in line with GFS now.

[BuffaloWeather]

Just because it's crazy and should be saved somewhere: KBOS off the 12z NAM. Road Trip Anyone!?!!?

 

 

130208/1200Z  48  10012KT  28.5F  SNOW   13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005   13:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z  49  10014KT  29.2F  SNOW   12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   13:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0130208/1400Z  50  10015KT  29.9F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   13:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0130208/1500Z  51  10015KT  30.6F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016   12:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0130208/1600Z  52  10015KT  31.2F  SNOW   12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025   12:1|  0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0130208/1700Z  53  09016KT  31.4F  SNOW   11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032   12:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10  100|  0|  0130208/1800Z  54  09016KT  31.7F  SNOW   13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033   12:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z  55  08017KT  31.9F  SNOW   13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045   12:1|  2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0130208/2000Z  56  08019KT  31.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062   12:1|  2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0130208/2100Z  57  07021KT  31.7F  SNOW   12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107   12:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35  100|  0|  0130208/2200Z  58  07021KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145   11:1|  5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49  100|  0|  0130208/2300Z  59  07022KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.171   10:1|  6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66  100|  0|  0130209/0000Z  60  07022KT  31.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.151    9:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z  61  06023KT  31.7F  SNOW    7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.166    9:1|  8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98  100|  0|  0130209/0200Z  62  06023KT  31.7F  SNOW    7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.167    8:1|  9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.15  100|  0|  0130209/0300Z  63  05024KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.165    8:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.31  100|  0|  0130209/0400Z  64  04025KT  30.6F  SNOW    9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.151    8:1| 12.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.46  100|  0|  0130209/0500Z  65  03025KT  28.7F  SNOW    8:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.140    8:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.60  100|  0|  0130209/0600Z  66  02027KT  25.8F  SNOW    9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128    8:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.73  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z  67  01029KT  23.3F  SNOW   11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159    9:1| 16.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.89  100|  0|  0130209/0800Z  68  01031KT  21.3F  SNOW   14:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219    9:1| 19.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.11  100|  0|  0130209/0900Z  69  01032KT  20.0F  SNOW   12:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.244    9:1| 22.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.35  100|  0|  0130209/1000Z  70  01029KT  18.8F  SNOW    9:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.248    9:1| 24.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.60  100|  0|  0130209/1100Z  71  36029KT  17.9F  SNOW   13:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.274   10:1| 28.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.87  100|  0|  0130209/1200Z  72  36030KT  17.0F  SNOW   12:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.237   10:1| 30.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.11  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z  73  36031KT  16.2F  SNOW   10:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.237   10:1| 33.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.35  100|  0|  0130209/1400Z  74  36030KT  16.1F  SNOW   11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.230   10:1| 35.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.58  100|  0|  0130209/1500Z  75  35027KT  15.7F  SNOW   15:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.233   10:1| 39.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.81  100|  0|  0130209/1600Z  76  35026KT  15.2F  SNOW   18:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.236   11:1| 43.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.05  100|  0|  0130209/1700Z  77  35025KT  15.2F  SNOW   14:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.260   11:1| 47.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.31  100|  0|  0130209/1800Z  78  34025KT  15.3F  SNOW   10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212   11:1| 49.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.52  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1900Z  79  34025KT  15.5F  SNOW    8:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149   11:1| 50.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.67  100|  0|  0130209/2000Z  80  34024KT  16.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088   11:1| 51.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.76  100|  0|  0130209/2100Z  81  34024KT  17.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070   11:1| 51.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.83  100|  0|  0130209/2200Z  82  33023KT  17.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051   11:1| 51.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.88  100|  0|  0130209/2300Z  83  33022KT  17.5F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034   11:1| 52.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.91  100|  0|  0130210/0000Z  84  33021KT  17.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022   11:1| 52.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.93  100|  0|  0============================================================================================================================

[Chicago WX]

lol, 52.4"

 

Just for perspective, there's only 30 entire seasons that have exceeded 52.4" in Boston's recorded history.

[Chicago WX]

12z UKie looks good for Toronto.

 

 

[toronto blizzard]

12z UKie looks good for Toronto.

 

2:6 12z UK 48.gif

 

2:6 12z UK 60.gif

Yummy! Let's see if EURO holds serve 

[Ajdos]

12zRGEM

 

[Thundersnow12]

Love me a Alek vs. LOT (TRS) battle

 

945 AM CST

BASED ON OUTPUT FROM 06Z RUN OF GFS/GFS-ENSEMBLE AND GEM PLUS THE
12Z RUN OF THE NAM...MODELS PROG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVERNIGHT AND THU TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 100 AND 200 MI FURTHER
S. BASED ON THESE MORE SOUTHERN TRACKS WARM AIR ADVECTION WOULD
NOT OCCUR AS FAR N ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS
RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE MAINLY
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND A
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX S. THU MORNING THE S SHOULD WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN...WHILE THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SNOW AND SLEET
AND A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE NORTH WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET IN
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE I-80 CORRIDOR MAY CHANGE TO A SNOW AND SLEET
MIX WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN JUST RAIN.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THU
EVENING COULD BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE N OF I-88...2 TO 4
INCHES BETWEEN I-88 AND I-80...1 TO 2 INCHES S OF I-80 AND 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE AND ILLINOIS RIVERS.

THESE ADJUSTMENTS ARE PRELIMINARY AS EXAMINATION AND EVALUATION
OF MORE NEW MODEL OUTPUT AND GUIDANCE AS IT COMES IN THIS MORNING
IS STILL NEEDED TO ATTEMPT TO NARROW THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND FURTHER REFINEMENT OF TIMING...
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF THE VARIOUS PRECIP TYPES.

A WINTER WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR LAKE AND MCHENRY
COUNTY WHERE 6+ INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREAS FROM AROUND I-88 AND I-80. 

[wisconsinwx]

Love me a Alek vs. LOT (TRS) battle

 

945 AM CST

BASED ON OUTPUT FROM 06Z RUN OF GFS/GFS-ENSEMBLE AND GEM PLUS THE

12Z RUN OF THE NAM...MODELS PROG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW

OVERNIGHT AND THU TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 100 AND 200 MI FURTHER

S. BASED ON THESE MORE SOUTHERN TRACKS WARM AIR ADVECTION WOULD

NOT OCCUR AS FAR N ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS

RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE MAINLY

SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND A

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX S. THU MORNING THE S SHOULD WARM ENOUGH

FOR JUST RAIN...WHILE THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SNOW AND SLEET

AND A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE NORTH WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET IN

THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE I-80 CORRIDOR MAY CHANGE TO A SNOW AND SLEET

MIX WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN JUST RAIN.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THU

EVENING COULD BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE N OF I-88...2 TO 4

INCHES BETWEEN I-88 AND I-80...1 TO 2 INCHES S OF I-80 AND 1 TO 2

INCHES SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE AND ILLINOIS RIVERS.

THESE ADJUSTMENTS ARE PRELIMINARY AS EXAMINATION AND EVALUATION

OF MORE NEW MODEL OUTPUT AND GUIDANCE AS IT COMES IN THIS MORNING

IS STILL NEEDED TO ATTEMPT TO NARROW THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND FURTHER REFINEMENT OF TIMING...

LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF THE VARIOUS PRECIP TYPES.

A WINTER WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR LAKE AND MCHENRY

COUNTY WHERE 6+ INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREAS FROM AROUND I-88 AND I-80. 

 

The truth will probably be pretty close to the middle.  I'll say 2-4" for those northern counties in Illinois (McHenry and Lake).  Better chance of 3-6" in SE Wisconsin, and Alek's neighborhood may only see an inch or two of sloppy wet snow at the end.  Hopefully this trends just a tad south or at least colder to make us feel like we have more breathing room.

[Chicago WX]

Still a bit far out to take seriously IMO, but 12 hour snow probabilities off the 9z SREF through 12z Friday. Fairly good probs for 8"+ for the Toronto area. Usual caveats apply.

 

[sc2man13]

GRR originally pulled the winter storm watch trigger for the northern 2 sets of counties, but now has pulled it south all the way down to Kalamazoo County. They have Grand Rapids down for 7 inches of snow. Should be interesting, and definitely a lot of WAA going on. The high on Thursday is supposed to be 37. I think this call would be more consistent with a southern solution, much like what LOT is going for.

[Ajdos]

RPM from Tom,  WGN Chicago...This is way  to far north... 

[Ajdos]

What if this ends up like the famous 'New years eve storm" (not sure what year)  Detroit gets a slushy inch and up by Pontiac and a tad further north 16" LOL...I'm still not over that storm llol

[snowstormcanuck]

RPM from Tom,  WGN Chicago...This is way  to far north... 

 

Blobs of 20"+? Who are we, New England?

[dmc76]

RPM from Tom, WGN Chicago...This is way to far north...

Most runs have trended further south.

[toronto blizzard]

Blobs of 20"+? Who are we, New England?

Aside from that it still has 8-12'' here

[weathernut]

RPM from Tom,  WGN Chicago...This is way  to far north... 

no offense, but that's not happening. LOL.  I'm in that blob of green at the West end of Lake Ontario.  16-20inches.  I'll be jacked if we get half that.

[SpartyOn]

Most runs have trended further south.

Indeed.

[DAFF]

Interesting southern trend from last run. I have been noticing a increase in precip values too for the Detroit region too !! 0.5 - .075" burst at 045 hr sounds like another overachiever in the works.

[SpartyOn]

What if this ends up like the famous 'New years eve storm" (not sure what year) Detroit gets a slushy inch and up by Pontiac and a tad further north 16" LOL...I'm still not over that storm llol

It will be called the snowfreak memorial storm.

[weathernut]

Has the 12z Euro come out yet today??

[A-L-E-K]

The WGN rpm has been brutal.