weathergy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 didn't take long for the MI crew to start complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 didn't take long for the MI crew to start complaining ?? Coming from one pessimist to another, your posts aren't exactly all smiles. I think the Michigan folk were just speculating? It is looking nice for many in Lower Michigan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Every weather outlet seems to be going with 4-6" for the GTA, not sure which forecasting tools they've been looking at 24 hrs out It's a narrow corridor and we're still 24 hours out. I think that's a decent if conservative call. I'm only going slightly higher at 6-8". No need to start taking the EURO or NAM numbers and using a 15:1 ratio. Just a setup for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is a tad warmer, but should still be good for a few inches of wet snow north of the IL/WI border during the day tomorrow. has more qpf as well, wettest run so far but as you said the lower levels look a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Indeed. I94 screw job in the works. We've been over performing down here all year. Maybe we'll get lucky again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's a narrow corridor and we're still 24 hours out. I think that's a decent if conservative call. I'm only going slightly higher at 6-8". No need to start taking the EURO or NAM numbers and using a 15:1 ratio. Just a setup for disappointment. 6-8" seems about right to me too, with potentially 9" for areas closer to the lake. GFS is saying 6", Euro and NAM are spitting out a foot, GEM is around 5.5" I'm not seeing why the 6-8" I was hearing yesterday from outlets is now 4-6". What grounds they're using to base the decrease off I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This is going to be YYZ's "NAM being stupid" run. Also Boston. 5"+ qpf wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Also Boston. 5"+ qpf wtf? Lol 4+ feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lol 4+ feet of snow That's incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Also Boston. 5"+ qpf wtf? Run of the mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Every weather outlet seems to be going with 4-6" for the GTA, not sure which forecasting tools they've been looking at 24 hrs out You have to understand that EC and TWN don't use the EURO model hence why they say 4-6'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM sure perked up. And looks like a nice run of the Euro last night. Steady as she goes, but confidence increasing for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 lol. That's an odd QPF distribution. Major screwhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Low reaches Monroe County south of Detroit. Means a period of dry slotting 696 south. needs to shift at least another 50 --75 miles south. The NAM is garbage and is the least consistent. Euro has been steadfast for days (though qpf is increasing) and GFS is trending towards the Euro. Not to mention this is the NAMs best run yet for MI, as its trying to trend Euros way as well. Keep in mind, initially the Saginaw Valley will see advisory snows tomorrow alone out ahead of the system. Snow may reach as far south as you, but I dont expect any snow in Detroit tomorrow. The main show will be Thursday night into Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Had a nice run though no? Overachieving 1-3" events aren't anything to write home about. NAM is an improvement, but it still has a long way to go. At the same time, the ECMWF is a wet/southern outlier at this time. WE'll probably end up somewhere in the middle. Then of course there's the fear of starting off as a mix/rain as well, as profiles start off marginal early on. I'm thinking 1-4" here at this time. Joy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looking at the NAM sounding shows a more pronounced warm layer than I thought. Between 940mb-820mb the mean temp is 3.6C much warmer than previous runs. Evaporational cooling does cool the column but still the column stays slightly above freezing pretty much the entire time. Its something to watch especially with the 12z GFS but I guess this could be a situation were we get an isothermal layer at 0C from 850-950mb. We will see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wish I had BUFKIT here at work. Not that I'd believe it, but NAM is probably spitting out a foot and half of snow on those QPF numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS hinting hard at freezing mist here tonight and tomorrow morning. Yuk I have had enough driving on ice the last 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wish I had BUFKIT here at work. Not that I'd believe it, but NAM is probably spitting out a foot and half of snow on those QPF numbers. Tell me how to use it. I can tell you what it shows if you'd like. Gotta wonder though if the 12z EURO still comes in juiced for us the NAM may not be off it's rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z GFS is going to be real wet for SE WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z GFS is going to be real wet for SE WI Hopefully colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hopefully colder. 0c 850 line stays at the WI/IL border then drifts south, looks to be all snow for us. Even Northern IL doesnt do that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You have to understand that EC and TWN don't use the EURO model hence why they say 4-6'' what are these recent runs showing for Hamilton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12Z GFS colder and more South. Keeps the "dry slot" south of the border! Widespread of up to 0.50"-0.75" (4-8") QPF would be all snow for all of the Detroit area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nice 0.75-1.00'' QPF here on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z GFS looks like a palm crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z GFS looks like a palm crusher. Is he back with a sock yet? Nice hit for WI crew, though. Geos manages a wet 1-3" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Is he back with a sock yet? Nice hit for WI crew, though. Geos manages a wet 1-3" as well. Haven't seen him. WI, MI, and ON lined up for a pretty nice one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nice 0.75-1.00'' QPF here on the 12z GFS RGEM also looks like it'd be pretty sweet. Looks like 1/2" of QPF down by 12z FRI with more to come. You need to download the BUFKIT program to use it. Buffalo NWS has a link for it. Don't worry though. It's just for laughs anyways as it tends to be inflated with its snowfall output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Is he back with a sock yet? Nice hit for WI crew, though. Geos manages a wet 1-3" as well. Yeah, had my doubts but with 12Z GFS might actually be a decent storm here in Madison too, heavier precip shifted slightly back west from previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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