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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm

wisconsinwx

By wisconsinwx,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

Any additional 1-4" snowfalls can be shoved into a very dark place for this season. I'm all out of chunk change.

 

As far as expecting anymore than that, yes, I am giving up on this one. It's not like we're 72 hours where a drastic change in solutions will take place. Besides, the trend this season seem to be that we trend weaker/less phased with these systems as we approach their time frames.

 

I hate that I let the Canadian/European models kinda suck me in, which still only showed 3-4" of snow as of its most "impressive" runs (12z 2/5/2013).

 

And after that one last system cruises by to the SE next week, I will have my grade for this winter.

 

But again, if nothing else, I am pulling for those in Northern Lower Michigan into Toronto (this will probably be their biggest synoptic snowstorm in some time).

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Harry

Harry

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  On 2/6/2013 at 4:02 AM, kab2791 said:

Actually noticed some slight difference in GFS QPF via NCEP page and InstantWeatherMaps. InstantWeathermaps sugesting 10-12" here (actually what the Euro had). Should have a WSW up here tomorrow morning if nothing drastically chages with the Euro. Hoping it's a little more south for you and SSC.

 

Have a better chance at wining the powerball jackpot then getting any needed shift for a decent hit here. :lol:

 

Regardless it is much improved from what the models had been showing a few days back and thus the rain. Just need the next one to follow suit.

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Chargers09

Chargers09

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  On 2/6/2013 at 4:06 AM, Powerball said:

Any additional 1-4" snowfalls can be shoved into a very dark place for this season. I'm all out of chunk change.

 

As far as expecting anymore than that, yes, I am giving up on this one. It's not like we're 72 hours where a drastic change in solutions will take place. Besides, the trend this season seem to be that we trend weaker/less phased with these systems as we approach their time frames.

 

I hate that I let the Canadian/European models kinda suck me in, which still only showed 3-4" of snow as of its most "impressive" runs (12z 2/5/2013).

 

And after that one last system cruises by to the SE next week, I will have my grade for this winter.

 

But again, if nothing else, I am pulling for those in Northern Lower Michigan into Toronto (this will probably be their biggest synoptic snowstorm in some time).

:cry:

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kab2791

kab2791

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  On 2/6/2013 at 4:07 AM, Harry said:

Have a better chance at wining the powerball jackpot then getting any needed shift for a decent hit here. :lol:

 

Regardless it is much improved from what the models had been showing a few days back and thus the rain. Just need the next one to follow suit.

Yup. Our biggest system here has been 3" this season so far. Didn't see anything above 4-5" last season as well. (In Mount Pleasant)

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dmc76

dmc76

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  On 2/6/2013 at 4:02 AM, wxman1952 said:

I seem to been missing a lot of the systems this winter, Although I'm in Michigan I am also way out of any "lake effect" area. So, I'm crossing my fingers on this one for Thursday.

Mike

 

 

Saginaw valley looks prime... 5-8"

 

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2013 at 4:06 AM, Powerball said:

Any additional 1-4" snowfalls can be shoved into a very dark place for this season. I'm all out of chunk change.

 

As far as expecting anymore than that, yes, I am giving up on this one. It's not like we're 72 hours where a drastic change in solutions will take place. Besides, the trend this season seem to be that we trend weaker/less phased with these systems as we approach their time frames.

 

I hate that I let the Canadian/European models kinda suck me in, which still only showed 3-4" of snow as of its most "impressive" runs (12z 2/5/2013).

 

And after that one last system cruises by to the SE next week, I will have my grade for this winter.

 

But again, if nothing else, I am pulling for those in Northern Lower Michigan into Toronto (this will probably be their biggest synoptic snowstorm in some time).

 

Going deep. :weenie:

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Geos

Geos

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  On 2/6/2013 at 4:29 AM, wisconsinwx said:

It is such a thread the needle situation I'm not sure I can even buy it.  The 850-surface 0C line sneaks so close to Milwaukee that it is a gift from the gods it stays just to the south and west.

 

Actually it sinks away from Milwaukee as the band moves in. More of a nail bitter down this way.

 

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Brewers

Brewers

Posted
Posted

If we can start out as snow, I think we will stay as snow the entire time. While the NAM has an above freezing layer between 950 and 850 (GFS keeps the entire column below freezing), however the column drops below freezing due to evaporational cooling at the onset of precipitation . As long as the strength  of  the WAA  stays as progged, the precip rates should allow the column to stay at or below freezing.

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

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  On 2/6/2013 at 5:32 AM, Brewers said:

If we can start out as snow, I think we will stay as snow the entire time. While the NAM has an above freezing layer between 950 and 850 (GFS keeps the entire column below freezing), however the column drops below freezing due to evaporational cooling at the onset of precipitation . As long as the strength  of  the WAA  stays as progged, the precip rates should allow the column to stay at or below freezing.

 

That's what I was thinking, if dynamic cooling has something to say about it, that combined with snowcover will make it difficult for a mix or rain to hang on for too long unless WAA is drastically undermodeled in this situation.

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Brewers

Brewers

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Posted
  On 2/6/2013 at 5:38 AM, wisconsinwx said:

That's what I was thinking, if dynamic cooling has something to say about it, that combined with snowcover will make it difficult for a mix or rain to hang on for too long unless WAA is drastically undermodeled in this situation.

 

Taking things as they are right now rain shouldn't be an issue, its a matter if we have mostly snow or a bit of sleet mixing in especially near the IL/WI border.

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Brewers

Brewers

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  On 2/6/2013 at 6:14 AM, wisconsinwx said:

Chistorm, it's time for those text outputs when you receive them.  This Euro run is so close to being great for those in N Illinois and SE Wisconsin, and it looks like it is good verbatim.

 

Any idea how much qpf the Euro shows for MKE?

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Harry

Harry

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  On 2/6/2013 at 6:09 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Euro looks good for Thursday night, Friday morning in Michigan!

 

Actually shows .50+ for all of us. Highest from Muskegon/Grand Rapids east to the Thumb on over to SSC backyard .75+ and even a blob of 1 inch + qpf near Mt Pleasant and again Toronto..

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

I'll let Joe do the list but this is for DPA. Atleast good for a few inches on this run if not more. So close.

 

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.8     0.5    1019      83      98    0.04     555     540   
THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.5     0.6    1017      92      97    0.17     554     541   
FRI 00Z 08-FEB     0.0    -2.2    1015      98      99    0.38     551     538   
FRI 06Z 08-FEB   -1.4    -4.8    1018      91      88    0.17     543     529   
FRI 12Z 08-FEB   -1.9    -6.0    1022      87      49    0.01     544     526   

 

 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2013 at 6:18 AM, Harry said:

Actually shows .50+ for all of us. Highest from Muskegon/Grand Rapids east to the Thumb on over to SSC backyard .75+ and even a blob of 1 inch + qpf near Mt Pleasant and again Toronto..

Not only does the EURO seem to be the wettest for us, but also the coldest. 2m temps in the 20s the entire time. Since we will be starting with an approximately 4" snowpack, if the euro verified we would be seeing our first double-digit snow depths since Feb 2011. Dont want to jump the gun though, remember NAM has next to nothing lol.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

0z ECMWF text list...

 

  Reveal hidden contents
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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

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  On 2/6/2013 at 6:22 AM, Thundersnow12 said:

I'll let Joe do the list but this is for DPA. Atleast good for a few inches on this run if not more. So close.

 

THU 12Z 07-FEB  -0.8     0.5    1019      83      98    0.04     555     540   

THU 18Z 07-FEB   0.5     0.6    1017      92      97    0.17     554     541   

FRI 00Z 08-FEB     0.0    -2.2    1015      98      99    0.38     551     538   

FRI 06Z 08-FEB   -1.4    -4.8    1018      91      88    0.17     543     529   

FRI 12Z 08-FEB   -1.9    -6.0    1022      87      49    0.01     544     526   

 

Just throwing this out there, because it could be relevant, but the Euro last night had 925mb temps at ORD for 18z Tuesday (today) at 0.1C.  I don't believe ORD got above 30F or 31F today, correct me if I'm wrong, so that could be a good sign that even the Euro could be overdoing temps just a wee bit and not taking snowcover into account.

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