wisconsinwx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Here it is for the late week storm. Could be snow initially changing to mix/freezing rain for many. The Northern Great Lakes have a better chance for this to stay all snow. The Euro/NAM are further north with the freezing line than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 NAM and even the GFS are too far north. My concern is suppression rather than mixing/rain. PV has not let anything amplify thus far and I don't expect that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Looks like a mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 The Euro shows a pretty decent snow for the northern portion of the MKX CWA. A small area of 0.25"+ QPF from 12z-18z Thursday near Saukville and Sheboygan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 This is for the cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 8:44 PM, SpartyOn said: This is for the cutter? No. Storm before that. Around 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm thinking ~2.5" for YYZ and more than half will have disappeared come the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 8:44 PM, SpartyOn said: This is for the cutter? The disturbance around Thursday with the collision of a clipper and a weak low riding ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 8:52 PM, blakeb717 said: I'm thinking ~2.5" for YYZ and more than half will have disappeared come the weekend. bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 8:59 PM, snowstormcanuck said: bullish EC says 4-5". Now THAT'S bullish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 9:08 PM, blakeb717 said: EC says 4-5". Now THAT'S bullish! Where? Not in their text forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z GFS shows .27" qpf for MKE and from the look of the bufkit sounding it would be mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 9:11 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Where? Not in their text forecast. http://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=meteocode&zone=r1101&tz=-5&title=FPTO51&lat=43.68648&lon=-79.41393 spotwx.com transcribes local forecasts. So even though EC doesn't post amounts out past 48 hours (likely due to accuracy issues), they still input amounts from their forecasting tool and spotwx shows it. Handy little website. I'm wondering if the SEasterlies on Thurs will help amplify any amounts via LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 9:16 PM, blakeb717 said: http://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=meteocode&zone=r1101&tz=-5&title=FPTO51&lat=43.68648&lon=-79.41393 spotwx.com transcribes local forecasts. So even though EC doesn't post amounts out past 48 hours (likely due to accuracy issues), they still commute and input amounts via their forecasting tool. Handy little website. I'm wondering if the SEasterlies on Thurs will help amplify any amounts via LES Wow, that's really cool. They're riding the GGEM (not surprisingly) which is also the wettest model for us. I doubt LES will be too much of a factor due to prohibitively low delta ts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 9:15 PM, Brewers said: 12z GFS shows .27" qpf for MKE and from the look of the bufkit sounding it would be mostly snow. Yeah, probably some sleet and freezing rain mixed in Thursday morning, but a large portion of it would be snow per the GFS. Now to get the other models on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 9:24 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Wow, that's really cool. They're riding the GGEM (not surprisingly) which is also the wettest model for us. I doubt LES will be too much of a factor due to prohibitively low delta ts. - Eh, I take it back. Looks like there may be a window of opportunity right at the onset when 850 temps are around -12 to -14c. Both the 18z NAM and GFS show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looks like a modest Gulf connection on the 0z run of the NAM judging by the H7 vectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 On 2/5/2013 at 2:44 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Looks like a modest Gulf connection on the 0z run of the NAM judging by the H7 vectors. Correct me if I'm wrong but the 12z EURO had about 4-5'' correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 On 2/5/2013 at 2:52 AM, toronto blizzard said: Correct me if I'm wrong but the 12z EURO had about 4-5'' correct? Wundermap looked like about 0.30-35" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looka like areas nearby could start out with some freezing rain on Thursday. I'm not ready to bite for LAF proper but will need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 On 2/5/2013 at 3:02 AM, Hoosier said: Looka like areas nearby could start out with some freezing rain on Thursday. I'm not ready to bite for LAF proper but will need to be watched.NAM looks close.But seems like a good candidate for 34 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 On 2/5/2013 at 4:07 AM, Chicago WX said: NAM looks close. But seems like a good candidate for 34 and rain. One difference compared to that late January event is that the warm air advection is not as overwhelming this time. Could still warm up just enough before it starts but at least we're not dealing with such dramatic advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 On 2/5/2013 at 4:12 AM, Hoosier said: One difference compared to that late January event is that the warm air advection is not as overwhelming this time. Could still warm up just enough before it starts but at least we're not dealing with such dramatic advection. Yeah, I'll give you that. We'll keep on eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS continue to show snow at the onset here and even a few inches north of 88. NAM is warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'm on my phone, so no image, but I did see the 0z UK at 72 hours in the SNE thread. Looks sorta amped up. Totally pulling for a YYZ hit with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS keep it all snow up this way. Maybe enough for 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 On 2/5/2013 at 4:52 AM, Geos said: GFS keep it all snow up this way. Maybe enough for 2-4"? The NAM is looking better for the area and the GEM keeps us all snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 00Z GEM gives Toronto an 8.5" dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 On 2/5/2013 at 5:22 AM, blakeb717 said: 00Z GEM gives Toronto an 8.5" dump Says who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 On 2/5/2013 at 5:29 AM, toronto blizzard said: Says who? http://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=scribe_x&tcid=XTO&tz=-5&station=TORONTO%20BLOOR&lat=43.6700000000&lon=-79.4000000000 21.9cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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