Capt. Adam Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Overnite clipper tonite, 2" mark for someone with better dynamics than what we saw over the weekend? tombo says 12Z GEFS looking wetter (.1 - .25). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 fwiw, it underperformed big time out here. Expecting 4-6", ended up with 1-2" on ratios that were way lower than anticipated. Here's to hoping you guys do better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 fwiw, it underperformed big time out here. Expecting 4-6", ended up with 1-2" on ratios that were way lower than anticipated. Here's to hoping you guys do better! If what Donald Southerland holds then this is not good news for us. Thanks for the report. Radar does look nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 fwiw, it underperformed big time out here. Expecting 4-6", ended up with 1-2" on ratios that were way lower than anticipated. Here's to hoping you guys do better! Thanks for the update. If I'm reading some of the other sub-forums correctly, seems like maybe a tight cut-off issue vs the precipitation underperforming? MI reporting good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 mt holly seems unimpressed with tonight's potential in the lunchtime AFD... THE EVENT IN GENERAL APPEARS TO BE SUB-ADVISORY LASTING NO MORE THAN A FEW HOURS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 This won't be like the "Cape May Clipper" last week, "surprising the area" with 5-7" of snow (most likely). The equation for that one was faily simple: strong channelized cyclonic vorticity advection / strengthening MPV/frontogen / cold and somewhat unstable profiles. Tonight is more diffuse with different forcings going on in different locations (with a close juxtaposition over our area). Perhaps the Chicago area saw lower amounts than forecasted, but what happened there is actually still impressive for us (being downstream). There was a 2-4" snowfall with 15:1 ratios as quick hitting warm-air advection / lower mpv ahead of the mid level vort max sped through. There is sneaky 700mb / mid level frontogen in our northern zones / southern New England with an increasing moisture gradient/advection. Profiles also are interesting in the northern half (Leigh Valley to C NJ points north) with some instability noted on the soundings. While warm/moist advection may fuel the "higher QPF" in S NJ, the 700mb frontogen is basically absent and snow growth isn't ideal. Either we all see a uniform snowfall in a quick duration tonight or maybe the north will surprise us with a banding feature and see 2-4 inches. Hard to predict amounts like that with the speed of this system and lack of factors coming together to increase the omegas. Looking forward to the new SREF guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 This won't be like the "Cape May Clipper" last week, "surprising the area" with 5-7" of snow (most likely). The equation for that one was faily simple: strong channelized cyclonic vorticity advection / strengthening MPV/frontogen / cold and somewhat unstable profiles. Tonight is more diffuse with different forcings going on in different locations (with a close juxtaposition over our area). Perhaps the Chicago area saw lower amounts than forecasted, but what happened there is actually still impressive for us (being downstream). There was a 2-4" snowfall with 15:1 ratios as quick hitting warm-air advection / lower mpv ahead of the mid level vort max sped through. There is sneaky 700mb / mid level frontogen in our northern zones / southern New England with an increasing moisture gradient/advection. Profiles also are interesting in the northern half (Leigh Valley to C NJ points north) with some instability noted on the soundings. While warm/moist advection may fuel the "higher QPF" in S NJ, the 700mb frontogen is basically absent and snow growth isn't ideal. Either we all see a uniform snowfall in a quick duration tonight or maybe the north will surprise us with a banding feature and see 2-4 inches. Hard to predict amounts like that with the speed of this system and lack of factors coming together to increase the omegas. Looking forward to the new SREF guidance. question, when you look at a sounding or map what do you look at to show if frontogenesis is present? Do you go off the vertical velocity for the lift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 question, when you look at a sounding or map what do you look at to show if frontogenesis is present? Do you go off the vertical velocity for the lift? Technically, at the very least, you need isotropes (potential temperature) and wind plotted. Frontogenesis isn't really a stagnant thing so it is a function over time of temp advection. There are plots of frontogenesis made from the SREF, NAM etc. at different pressure levels if you don't have GEMPAK. If you just go off the UVM, you may not know what's causing the lift. On regular weather maps that you use day to day, see if you can make out deformation, converging temperature and if each side of the front is growing cooler or warmer for whatever reasons that usually cause cooling/warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nam Keeps Phl high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nam Keeps Phl high and dry. If PHL is dry, does anyone east of the mountains get anything from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 If PHL is dry, does anyone east of the mountains get anything from this? PHL and south Jersey's loss is NYC and north Jersey's gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 PHL and south Jersey's loss is NYC and north Jersey's gain. The radar appears to be conspicuously south, and doesn't agree with the models.....potential virga storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 15z SREF are similar to 09z. Would support 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The HRRR has been pretty awesome lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hmmm.....Radar looks "ok"....doesn't look like your typical clipper. It seems to have some moisture feed. I know......radar hallucinations........maybe I'm just thinking we'll get more than 1" here. Gotta happen sometime.......or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Special Weather Statement has been issued.for 1-1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 FWIW... RAP is similar. http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/data/forecast/grads/rap/panel9/anim.gif http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/data/forecast/grads/rap/panel3/anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Performing well in Ohio, WPa and WV just a question of how much makes it over the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Does anyone know when tonight's light snow is supposed to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 According to my local forecast, most of the accumulation is due between 11 PM and 3 AM, but the chance of precip starts according to the hourly graph as early as 8 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Watch Ocean and Atlantic counties...NAM has been pretty aggressive in developing some extra moisture for them as the system pulls through. They have a chance of getting 2" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Pure sunshine and blue skies in Lancaster. I think my area will see a coating at best. Maybe a little more enhancement closer to the shore. The apps are eating away the forward progress of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Well, 26/15 here with clear skies. See what happens overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Does anyone know when tonight's light snow is supposed to start? Yeah NAM and GFS "suggest" a start time between 7-10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Glenn's snow totals at 4:50pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Glenn's snow totals at 4:50pm... what are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 what are they? Grid just above his nose has totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Since the last 2 were 0.5", let's make it 3 in a row. Actually, 0.5" sounds pretty reasonable for Philly and the immediate suburbs. Looks like snow starts 9 to 10 PM and ends 3 or 4 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hope I get another coating. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I think this clipper will do better than the last two. Seems like the storm itself is organized moreso than the last 2. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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