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February 4 - 5 Clipper Discussion and Observations


NEG NAO

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Mount holly

My forecast from Mt. Holly

 

Tonight A slight chance of rain before 9pm, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

  • Tuesday A chance of snow before 9am, then a slight chance of rain between 9am and 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Light northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
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I'll believe it when I see it. Odds are a coating to an isolated inch with perhaps 1-2" over Monmouth.

This heavier band is forecast to be from NYC south...chances are Anthony in Brooklyn gets more then you. My call is a inch for the city and local amounts of 2-3 in Monmouth and middlesex county

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This heavier band is forecast to be from NYC south...chances are Anthony in Brooklyn gets more then you. My call is a inch for the city and local amounts of 2-3 in Monmouth and middlesex county

 

That's according to the nam/srefs/rap/gfs/gefs.

The euro/rgem/ukmet/ggem are only .03"-.06" for NYC/LI.

 

The American models are more aggressive with coastal enhancement. Will be interesting to see if the 18z GFS continues to portray that.

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I wouldnt call an inch to an inch and a half aggressive especially since they are forecasting for a very wide range of locations for the statement, thats pretty appropriate

It's more enhanced then what was discussed by you and few others before. They also go on to talk about a heavier band setting up. Nobody in this thread is wish-casting. Go into feb 8th thread for that

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you guys crack me up arguing about a coating to an inch or maybe 2 in spots - like it makes a big difference - some spots will get a coating others an inch others may squeeze out 2 and its virtually impossible to say who will get what in advance - thats a nowcasting thing in this type of situation

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hey.... we're getting better. this is only a 2 page thread. we had a 38 page thread for our inch a while back. lol.

well the clipper parade is moving faster then expected - and we get to do this all over again tomorrow ! yippie yi yee !

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for the northern half of NJ their POP is 40%.   that's kinda sucky.

Suddenly I'm upto 50% now. Still down from 70% and their SWS and Forecast discussion contradict each other, One says 

 

314 PM EST MON FEB 4 2013...ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, PRODUCINGA PERIOD OF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AREEXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH TOTALS OF GENERALLY 1.0 TO1.5 INCHES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW TODEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR REGION, AND THIS WOULDBE IN THE FORM OF AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTATED BAND. IF THIS OCCURS,SNOWFALL RATES WOULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER FOR A TIME OTHERWISE ALIGHT INTENSITY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED.

The discussion says 31 minutes later...

 

350 PM EST MON FEB 4 2013IT IS BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE, BUT THIS CLIPPERTYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREAOVERNIGHT.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND EVEN WITHSNOW/WATER EQUIVALENTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 TO 1, IT LOOKS TO BEA SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH MOST AREAS 1 INCH OR LESS. 
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