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February 4 - 5 Clipper Discussion and Observations

NEG NAO

By NEG NAO,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

RGEM verbatim is only a coating of snow tonight for NYC/LI and up to 1" from a separate clipper tomorrow afternoon.

 

My thoughts regarding the 2/4-5 clipper. I compare it to the 2/2-3 clipper.

 

February 2: Illinois: % of Stations Reporting:

4" or more: 0.0%

3" or more: 0.7%

2" or more: 32.4%

<2": 67.6%

<1" 13.8%

 

February 4: Illinois: % of Stations Reporting:

4" or more: 0.8%

3" or more: 11.5%

2" or more: 57.7%

<2": 42.3%

<1" 15.4%

 

This time around, the incidence of 2" or greater and 3" or greater amounts were notably higher. Therefore, unlike the 2/2-3 clipper where highest reported amounts were generally under 1.5" in the Upton forecast area (most areas under 1"), my guess is that this time around highest amounts could be closer to 1.5"-2.5" with isolated amounts perhaps near 3" (probably somewhere in NJ and maybe on a portion of Long Island).

 

If I had to venture guesses:

 

Belmar: 1"-2"

Bridgeport: 1"-2"

Islip: 1"-2"

New York City:

...JFK: 1.0"-1.5"

...LGA: 0.5"-1.0"

...NYC: 0.5"-1.0"

Newark: 1.0"-1.5"

Poughkeepsie: < 0.5" (dusting)

Teterboro: 0.5"-1.0"

White Plains: 0.5"

 

For purposes of comparison, below are the 2/2-3 amounts for a number of those locations:

Bridgeport: 0.2"

Islip: 0.8"

New York City:

...JFK: 0.8"

...LGA: 0.7"

...NYC: 0.4"

Newark: 0.4"

White Plains: 0.8"

 

In short, most areas will probably do a little better than they did on 2/2-3.

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

Alan Casper who is probably the best met in NJ says coating to an inch

 

Very strongly disagree with this.

 

Alan Casper predicted all rain for NJ with the 26th of November system. We got over 3 inches with that system.

 

He predicted all rain with the Christmas Eve system. Many places saw close to an inch of snow.

 

He predicted all rain for the 26th of December system. I saw 6 hours of so of sleet from that.

 

His track record at least recently hasn't been too stellar to say the least.

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winterwarlock

winterwarlock

Posted
Posted

but are you disagreeing with Kasper's forecast?

 

because upton and mt. holly have pretty much the same forecast as kasper.

 

 

exactly...what basis are people disagreeing with his forecast and what Mt Holly is saying? is it wishcasting? why hug nam totals which are usually inflated? are people counting on ridiculous snow ratios? Do some think they know more than mets?

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

exactly...what basis are people disagreeing with his forecast and what Mt Holly is saying? is it wishcasting? why hug nam totals which are usually inflated? are people counting on ridiculous snow ratios? Do some think they know more than mets?

 

What? Nam,GFS and GEFS have the same totals for tonight. Around .10.

 

 

Looks like Upton is hugging the Euro for tonight's clipper. Only has .50 of snow for NYC.

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winterwarlock

winterwarlock

Posted
Posted

What? Nam,GFS and GEFS have the same totals for tonight. Around .10.

 

 

and those same totals have given coating to an inch for most of NJ the past couple of clippers...yes some in South jersey and coast of NJ a bit more but by and large these have been coating to 1 inch events. I received    .5  9 days ago  and then .25 Saturday night. Generally NJ amounts have been up to an inch with these clippers and as we have seen they actually are producing less precip amount then modelled

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted

exactly...what basis are people disagreeing with his forecast and what Mt Holly is saying? is it wishcasting? why hug nam totals which are usually inflated? are people counting on ridiculous snow ratios? Do some think they know more than mets?

You came in here and bashed everyone for not discussing the last "event" enough, now youre inflating how many people are inflating anything.... All while taking Mt Holly at its word when you bashed them less than 48 hours ago. Some act.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

You came in here and bashed everyone for not discussing the last "event" enough, now youre inflating how many people are inflating anything.... All while taking Mt Holly at its word when you bashed them less than 48 hours ago. Some act.

Yes, and he called that snow to rain event a "nice winter event" the other day and bashed us for not talking about that high impact event. Lmao he is a troll

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

exactly...what basis are people disagreeing with his forecast and what Mt Holly is saying? is it wishcasting? why hug nam totals which are usually inflated? are people counting on ridiculous snow ratios? Do some think they know more than mets?

Ratios have been 15-1 and 20-1 for both events

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winterwarlock

winterwarlock

Posted
Posted

Yes, and he called that snow to rain event a "nice winter event" the other day and bashed us for not talking about that high impact event. Lmao he is a troll

 

 

um no...it was a nice winter event to watch different precips and transition happening. I am not just here for 8 inch snow storms. I have no problem with this storm and discussion, do you people even read? You totally make up stuff. My point is that this storm is really no different than the last two clippers in what we are getting which is coating to an inch with the usual scattered higher amounts.  I have been consistent in my thoughts for all 3 clippers BUT here I see people going very bullish with the 2-3 amounts looking likely and I am wondering why. I felt Mt Holly was overdoing their take on the last storm because they got burned by Friday's storm and it played into it....most other forecasters went much less. Now we have Mt holly, Kaspar and tv mets all saying the same thing. In this case I would side with them.

 

amazing how this board is allowed to make personal attacks once someone does not agree with the company line, uncalled for actually.

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winterwarlock

winterwarlock

Posted
Posted

Ratios have been 15-1 and 20-1 for both events

 

 

and we have received less than the forecasted amounts both times...thats all I am saying with careful in hugging the NAM amounts since they have not verified the last two clippers

 

 

and as a snowplower when the forecast calls for 2-4 inches and you only get .25 yes thats a big bust because you want to be able to prepare for a situation to do work. YOU of all people should know that. Thats why Mt Holly got flack from me.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

and we have received less than the forecasted amounts both times...thats all I am saying with careful in hugging the NAM amounts since they have not verified the last two clippers

 

 

and as a snowplower when the forecast calls for 2-4 inches and you only get .25 yes thats a big bust because you want to be able to prepare for a situation to do work. YOU of all people should know that. Thats why Mt Holly got flack from me.

 

The Nam agrees with the GFS,GEFS,SREFS,RGEM though.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Mount holly

 

 

 

...ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, PRODUCINGA PERIOD OF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AREEXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH TOTALS OF GENERALLY 1.0 TO1.5 INCHES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW TODEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR REGION, AND THIS WOULDBE IN THE FORM OF AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTATED BAND. IF THIS OCCURS,SNOWFALL RATES WOULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER FOR A TIME OTHERWISE ALIGHT INTENSITY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED.THE COLD AIR THAT IS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND WILLRESULT IN THE SNOW STICKING TO UNTREATED SURFACES IMMEDIATELY. THISWILL RESULT IN QUICKLY DEVELOPING SLICK CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT.UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED, RESULTING INAREAS OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL.WHILE DRIVING USE CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS ANDGREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. DRIVE AT ASLOWER SPEED AND USE EXTRA CAUTION, ESPECIALLY WHEN TRAVELING ONBRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES AS THEY TEND TO BECOME EVENMORE SLIPPERY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END PRIOR TO SUNRISE ONTUESDAY.
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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

There's a chance the coastal sections get a bit of enhancement and receive and inch or so.

Haven't the past few systems taught anybody anything? A lot of the high res models keep most of the precip south of the area with us just on the northern fringe. You can call it an inch or so, I call it a glorified heavy dusting.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Haven't the past few systems taught anybody anything? A lot of the high res models keep most of the precip south of the area with us just on the northern fringe. You can call it an inch or so, I call it a glorified heavy dusting.

 

 

This one appears to have a coastal enhancement aspect to it with coastal NJ, NYC, LI getting the most precip. It's not much more, but a bit more then inland locations.

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