NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 radar looks good so far http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=default®ion=SHD&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 9z SREF has NYC in the .10 contour. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=09ℑ=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_033_precip_p24.gif This has shifted slightly north from the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 you look like you have one of those bugs thats going around - flu - cold or stomach virus - or is it the 12/13 winter blues ? this winter so far would make anyone sick - anyhow forecasts for this event range from a coating to an inchor 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nam likes north central jersey tonight. Might be some spots of 2-3 in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nam likes north central jersey tonight. Might be some spots of 2-3 in that area The trend of the winter. It brushes the NYC area. This event looks slightly north of the last event . Almost similiar though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nam likes north central jersey tonight. Might be some spots of 2-3 in that area Maybe it'll end up like the snows in extreme s nj a few days ago but further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The trend of the winter. It brushes the NYC area. This event looks slightly north of the last event . Almost similiar though. Yeah looks like a mercer/ Monmouth/ middlesex jackpot. Would be nice, hopefully the rest of guidance agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The RSM isn't too far fetched, it has a bit more than the Nam and a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 SREF probability of an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 SREF probability of an inch That's a pretty strong signal. Although srefs have been horrible lately. The vort is def a bit more impressive then Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nam likes north central jersey tonight. Might be some spots of 2-3 in that area and the NAM always overdoes precip amounts so slice those amounts in half....coating to an inch with some one getting lucky with 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 and the NAM always overdoes precip amounts so slice those amounts in half....coating to an inch with some one getting lucky with 1.5 Lets see what the other models show before slashing any amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'd say a general 1-2" around the area especially south. Hopefully the ocean can enhance things and we get lucky with ratios. Other than that it's a rinse/repeater with the other lousy clippers we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 and the NAM always overdoes precip amounts so slice those amounts in half....coating to an inch with some one getting lucky with 1.5 In this situation no. It's not a wrap up costal low. It has done very well with qpf in Midwest. This has better ratios and snow growth at 700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 RGEM is also more north. Light snow in NYC and LI. Nothing really south of the area. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 .10 on the GFS for NYC and LI http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_027_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Gfs similar to nam. Central nj looks to be the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Gfs similar to nam. Central nj looks to be the spot. GFS looks slightly north of the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 More snow tomorrow night on the GFS. It pops a secondary just east of LI. All snow. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 RGEM is also more north. Light snow in NYC and LI. Nothing really south of the area. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Probably the worse model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I have seen .5 and .25 with the last two so called events, not expecting anything more than the same coating to an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Probably the worse model More wrong you could not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Probably the worse model Absolutely incorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 More snow tomorrow night on the GFS. It pops a secondary just east of LI. All snow. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif MT HOLLY.THIS SIGNAL IS WEAK AND NEW TO THE GAME. WE`VE LOOKED AT TWO OR THREE RUNS OF THE ECMWF, GFS AND NAM NOW, AND OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THAT IS BASED ON THIS OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE CHANGES VERY LITTLE FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER. WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT. THE OBVIOUS CAVEAT IS THAT IF THE WEAK SIGNAL IN THE NORTHWEST GETS STRONGER OVER SUBSEQUENT RUNS, THEN A TICK UPWARD IN QPF AND RATIOS THERE WOULD LEAD TO A REQUISITE UPTICK IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY CHILLY FAR NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION LOOK TO BE AROUND 40 KT. IF WE START TO SEE GOOD OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH A CLEAR SIGNAL OF STEADY OR FALLING THETA E VALUES WITH HEIGHT, THEN RATIOS NORTHWEST STILL COULD SURPASS 20 TO 1. COMBINED WITH INCREASED QPF, WE WOULD BE PUSHING INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GEFS for tonight. .10+ for NYChttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep24036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GEFS for tonight. .10+ for NYC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep24036.gif City has a good chance of getting 1+ tonight, while someone in this area gets 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I agree tonight seems like more of a sure thing than last event for 0.5-2in for people in metro area. Agree with allsnow someone on coastal cnj could hit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 More wrong you could not be. nope I'll take the gfs,euro and even the nam at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 nope I'll take the gfs,euro and even the nam at this time frame. Rgem is a good model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Absolutely incorrect I should of said not the best at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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