HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yup when it ends party cloudy and 32 on Friday, we won't be surprised or disappointed like some mets and posters here will My cars are all stuck from the 1-3" you promised everyone yesterday. My snowblower ran out of gas, too... I think I go Costanza thinking with the KURO now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Just remember that the Euro ensembles have generally supported the OP run when it has had its 96 hour fantasy storms this year. I'd still view the solution with a lot of skepticism. But the fact that it did bump west from 00z at least gives it a little bit more credibility...but not enough to outweigh the lack of support from other guidance sans Ukie. And really the only reason I give it hope this go around, even though it sounds like I have not learned my lesson from this winter, is the southern stream interaction. As others have pointed out, the southern stream interaction would likely be handled better on the european versus the other guidance. I'm not exactly expecting a full phase here, or one that is in time for you guys even, but some influence/additional moisture at least should be added into this system hopefully from the southern wave...it sucks the temps along the coast are questionable, but inland could have a nice event out of it still even without the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 My cars are all stuck from the 1-3" you promised everyone yesterday. My snowblower ran out of gas, too... I think I go Costanza thinking with the KURO now He had a bad day yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 And really the only reason I give it hope this go around, even though it sounds like I have not learned my lesson from this winter, is the southern stream interaction. As others have pointed out, the southern stream interaction would likely be handled better on the european versus the other guidance. I'm not exactly expecting a full phase here, or one that is in time for you guys even, but some influence/additional moisture at least should be added into this system hopefully from the southern wave...it sucks the temps along the coast are questionable, but inland could have a nice event out of it still even without the phase. Can't happen, Its going to be PC and 32F friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z GEFS still have no members showing something? I know 06z didn't have any showing that, but haven't looked at 12z. Yeah none of them have anything close to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I would feel a little better if at least one single GEFS member had this type of Euro solution, but they don't. I would think if this is going to end up more amped, we will have to start seeing some changes from other guidance at 00z tonight. Otherwise I expect the Euro to ditch the idea. yeah i know what you mean. it would be nice if we could see the individual euro ens members to get a better feel for how they are handling it. one of things that has me a bit intrigued is a feel like there's room for the southern stream energy to gain some latitude. it may just end up a late phase though - like hundreds of miles out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 While my 1-3 worked out well east of ORH. From ORH west amounts ranged from 1/4-3/4 of an inch so not so good there. But I've had a great winter so only the 2 nd subpar forecast and better than some who had called for no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Well, I wish they'd turn off the seatbelt sign--some of us really need to pee. I just get up and go. To hell with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 My cars are all stuck from the 1-3" you promised everyone yesterday. My snowblower ran out of gas, too... I think I go Costanza thinking with the KURO now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Can't happen, Its going to be PC and 32F friday I'm in the not likey camp for A siggy deal, but it's certainly not impossible. I really wish the gfs would at least hint at something startin 18 or 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 these are fairly close: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm in the not likey camp for A siggy deal, but it's certainly not impossible. I really wish the gfs would at least hint at something startin 18 or 00z Agree, Going to need one of these models budge one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I should have known the minute Kevin said Friday was a miss to plan on a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GFS is not the nogaps. If it dosent have something by now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 18z GFS is even more annoying flat for Friday's impulse. I mean it almost doesn't even have one there - it really is that extremely different. You know, when I started that other thread about the 6th of February, the GFS was doing something very similar to what the Euro is, now. If you go look at that thread start, the pattern looks similar. I wonder if we merely in the midst of a pattern where they take turns over-developing phantoms. Edit: aw shucks - you can't. The images are updating in real-time so those charts are history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 18z GFS has this event as almost a 30 hour weenie snow-fest. Light onshore flow the whole time running the moisture over the top of the cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 18z GFS has this event as almost a 30 hour weenie snow-fest. Light onshore flow the whole time running the moisture over the top of the cold airmass. Don't worry... it won't snow at all (it does look rather odd on that.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 18z GFS has this event as almost a 30 hour weenie snow-fest. Light onshore flow the whole time running the moisture over the top of the cold airmass. Its a little better with the low, but that's a stretch. If anything it induces the onshore weenie snowiest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 18z GFS has this event as almost a 30 hour weenie snow-fest. Light onshore flow the whole time running the moisture over the top of the cold airmass. Pretty odd look on the 18z GFS, Even more different then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Its a little better with the low, but that's a stretch. If anything it induces the onshore weenie snowiest. Yeah it gets a low going down to our south which increases the gradient between that and the potent high to the north and we get an onshore flow...with also some leftover moisutre from the northern stream system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 this is just insane how there is nothing here ...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 sign me up basically snows lightly all week here starting later tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GFS is an advisory event, just spread out over a week and three different systems -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 You look at this map at 78 hours and it looks like pre PDII, strong high and just need something out of the southern stream to run into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 You look at this map at 78 hours and it looks like pre PDII, strong high and just need something out of the southern stream to run into it. That's funny, I was just thinking about that panel and how it doesn't look too different at the surface, compared to the 96 hour 12z Euro - it's aloft that bares no resemblance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 That's funny, I was just thinking about that panel and how it doesn't look too different at the surface, compared to the 96 hour 12z Euro - it's aloft that bares no resemblance. 2/11/94 also, but PDII was more or less 2/11/94 on steroids with a stronger high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 "Bow down to your new overlord" - GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 we have a week of off and on light snows/flurries thru fri nite most likely, and then at least we have two solid cutters to start the more active period on gfs. hour 384 has -24C 850's over mass so that's pretty impressive cold for feb 18. but anyway this is about the friday deal and that looks very meh. interesting battle going on. Bouchard says the euro's been a little off lately so he's not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 BOX still not going all in one way or the other... can't blame them: FRIDAY... TRICKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS ARE IN COMPLETEDISAGREEMENT. NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/GFS ENS ALL SHOW A WEAK WAVE MOVINGACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THENORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE EC BRINGS A STRONGCOASTAL STORM ACROSS THE BENCHMARK...WHICH MAY DROP SEVERAL INCHESOF SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FINALLY THE UKMET ALSO SHOWS A COASTALSTORM YET IT STRENGTHENS THE STORM OUT TO SEA...WHICH HAS BEEN THETHEME OF THIS WINTER. FOR THE FORECAST DECIDED TO KEEP PREV FORECASTFOR NOW AS MODELS SPREAD IS LARGE AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.HOWEVER THE EC HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEWDAYS NOW AND ECEN IS CONSISTENT AS WELL. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILLUNFOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS TO GET A GLIMPSE ON WHAT MAYHAPPEN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Noyes is "meh" at this time For storm/snow lovers, Friday is the next period of interest. Right now, with low predictability, that's all it remains...a period of interest. Snow showers are quite likely, but anything more than that it's too early to say with any amount of confidence. Regardless of what transpires, high predictability/confidence on a great weekend at this early juncture - sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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