Logan11 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Unfortunately the February sun increasingly will obliterate 1 or 2 inch things fast. We need a solid dump of high quality 10-1 ratio snow to put down a base now. But yeah it obviously beats mild rainstorms. Most winter sports are non-existent right now, but the downhill skiers have enough cold for man made snow. at least were cold. heck ill take 1 inch snows every 3 days over mild rainers. nothing is worse in the winter than a parade of mild rainers, nothing. dry and cold isn't great or really that good, but when it snows an inch every 3 days or so, ill take it over mild and rain or cold and abs. nada falling from the sky which we have seen, and this is a tiny bit better (it seems) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hmm, euro ensembles are more bullish vs 00z. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hmm, euro ensembles are more bullish vs 00z. Hearing that raises hopes on this hateful trip. BTW--pretty good chop going out of charlotte. I'm sure you know that though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nice AWTEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hmm, euro ensembles are more bullish vs 00z.Well we would hope so considering 00z was 300 miles OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Well we would hope so considering 00z was 300 miles OTS Well it's a decent hit, so a good move. However, it's not a very deep low so there must be some spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hearing that raises hopes on this hateful trip. BTW--pretty good chop going out of charlotte. I'm sure you know that though! No I'm off lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hmm, euro ensembles are more bullish vs 00z. That's interesting. Maybe it's not off its rocker this time. Is it close to the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hmm, euro ensembles are more bullish vs 00z. I'm going to be pulling for the late phase/capture. I won't really look at this threat till Wednesday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 That's interesting. Maybe it's not off its rocker this time. Is it close to the op? Just remember that the Euro ensembles have generally supported the OP run when it has had its 96 hour fantasy storms this year. I'd still view the solution with a lot of skepticism. But the fact that it did bump west from 00z at least gives it a little bit more credibility...but not enough to outweigh the lack of support from other guidance sans Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Just remember that the Euro ensembles have generally supported the OP run when it has had its 96 hour fantasy storms this year. I'd still view the solution with a lot of skepticism. But the fact that it did bump west from 00z at least gives it a little bit more credibility...but not enough to outweigh the lack of support from other guidance sans Ukie. Well will know soon. Some point one of these models will cave. Either the euro to the rest or the rest catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 One more shift east and its over for many. One more after that and Noone sees a flake as we're thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Will is right though. The ensembles have had epic fails as well. Just way too early to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 So we really have lost the one model that you could actually count on inside 4 days. It's not so much that the GFS is better...moreso that the Euro is just not as reliable these days. Will is right though. The ensembles have had epic fails as well. Just way too early to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Will is right though. The ensembles have had epic fails as well. Just way too early to get excited. Yeah, Its a threat like all the others except this one has more potential then all of the other POS that have come along incl the weds one which looks on life support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 One more shift east and its over for many. One more after that and Noone sees a flake as we're thinking But everything is coming together for tomorrow, so no worries, right? ------ I'll wait until we're inside 72 hours before buying any nice solutions. No matter how bad the EURO has been this season, I'd still rather have that model say storm ON than only the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 But everything is coming together for tomorrow, so no worries, right? ------ I'll wait until we're inside 72 hours before buying any nice solutions. No matter how bad the EURO has been this season, I'd still rather have that model say storm ON than only the GFS. Imo yeah. The Tues nite system had always looked better than the Friday one. Friday one wil likely be a total miss. With the Rgem and GGEM on board for a nice 1-4 inch event that's a tough combo to beat this year and at least gives us a little something to look forward to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 No I'm off lol. Well, I wish they'd turn off the seatbelt sign--some of us really need to pee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yeah, Its a threat like all the others except this one has more potential then all of the other POS that have come along incl the weds one which looks on life support I always respect srn stream stuff because strange things can happen. I'm just not sure the nrn stream dives far enough south to make it happen. We'll see...there is time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Imo yeah. The Tues nite system had always looked better than the Friday one. Friday one wil likely be a total miss. With the Rgem and GGEM on board for a nice 1-4 inch event that's a tough combo to beat this year and at least gives us a little something to look forward to I cannot be the only one to get a chuckle out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 I always respect srn stream stuff because strange things can happen. I'm just not sure the nrn stream dives far enough south to make it happen. We'll see...there is time left. I agree, I'm hanging my hat that the s/w in the northern stream in itself is pretty potent so even if it does not phase there are a few here that would see some snow out of it one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Imo yeah. The Tues nite system had always looked better than the Friday one. Friday one wil likely be a total miss. With the Rgem and GGEM on board for a nice 1-4 inch event that's a tough combo to beat this year and at least gives us a little something to look forward to i don't think this is nearly the slam dunk to go out to sea that you do. i'm not saying it's a bomb on the BM but not sold that this is destined for the same fate as everything else. different origins, different set-up, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 NOGAPS actually looks pretty amped compared to the GFS... flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 i don't think this is nearly the slam dunk to go out to sea that you do. i'm not saying it's a bomb on the BM but not sold that this is destined for the same fate as everything else. different origins, different set-up, imo. It's like Bastardi, whatever he goes for, go opposite. Usually you win 7/10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I would feel a little better if at least one single GEFS member had this type of Euro solution, but they don't. I would think if this is going to end up more amped, we will have to start seeing some changes from other guidance at 00z tonight. Otherwise I expect the Euro to ditch the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I would feel a little better if at least one single GEFS member had this type of Euro solution, but they don't. I would think if this is going to end up more amped, we will have to start seeing some changes from other guidance at 00z tonight. Otherwise I expect the Euro to ditch the idea. 12z GEFS still have no members showing something? I know 06z didn't have any showing that, but haven't looked at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hmm, euro ensembles are more bullish vs 00z. Hey Scott ...take a look at the 18z NAM - could not be any flatter. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I would feel a little better if at least one single GEFS member had this type of Euro solution, but they don't. I would think if this is going to end up more amped, we will have to start seeing some changes from other guidance at 00z tonight. Otherwise I expect the Euro to ditch the idea.Yup when it ends party cloudy and 32 on Friday, we won't be surprised or disappointed like some mets and posters here will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I would feel a little better if at least one single GEFS member had this type of Euro solution, but they don't. I would think if this is going to end up more amped, we will have to start seeing some changes from other guidance at 00z tonight. Otherwise I expect the Euro to ditch the idea. Which I will be reading about at around 08z... Just hoping it has latched onto something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yup when it ends party cloudy and 32 on Friday, we won't be surprised or disappointed like some mets and posters here will LOL mets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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