powderfreak Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 That would be a great first warning event for Bryce!!! That's all I need to know for up here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 the 1" line got pushed east... last night's run gave all of sne >1" of liquid and now it runs the 1" line from the eastern tip of LI to about ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 That's all I need to know for up here, lol. You would do pretty well... Better than CT actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Northern stream s/w did not dig the trough as far SE this run which allows the storm to form a little east of 0z before the phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 how much further east does this have to go for me to see a significant (>3") snow out of this(even if it changes over, all snow on this for meseems to be near impossible if people want high amounts)? Is it even close? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It's slowly, inexorably going towards the other models. I thought it was further along at 72, but it still does it's thing. This is I think the 3rd epic event it's had at about this range. Blizzard conditions in parts of New England. LOL. Hey I hope it's right for sure, but I think it's terribly wrong and has been stepping east each run. Yeah, the run its self is fun - I think that's all we're really doing. We haven't collectively had much to celebrate as of late. Let it roll and see where the dice end up on this one, agreed? That said, the question as to whether the flow evolves in time is obviously on the table and no one is denying that much - not saying your are. But to that ends ... if the Euro collapses toward the GFS progressivity bias in the end, ...yeah, sure, fine. It's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Northern stream s/w did not dig the trough as far SE this run which allows the storm to form a little east of 0z before the phase it has a habit of digging polar jet s/w's too far S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Sat 0z 0z Euro position roughly 40N 74W 12z Euro position roughly 40N 69.5W As forky notes the tendencies it's had are probably the root cause. I don't think any of us expect this scenario to play out so it's all preaching to the choir, but I bet it continues east. Chances are the other models come NW though, so we'll be left tracking another one of these squeakers. One of these days we'll get lucky, maybe it's this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 That's all I need to know for up here, lol. The northern stream s/w is still pretty potent and we would snow just from that albeit not the amounts the euro has with phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Northern stream s/w did not dig the trough as far SE this run which allows the storm to form a little east of 0z before the phase we may very well see that continue to a point where they don't merge. certainly within the realm of possibilities. it could totally be a nothing event, but at least there's a new ingredient in the mix this time (of course, if it fails, who cares). it's not the same old/same old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 One thing I noticed as I looked at the 12z yesterday's UKMET compared to the 00z of that model - it did trend more aggressive with impact overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 we may very well see that continue to a point where they don't merge. certainly within the realm of possibilities. it could totally be a nothing event, but at least there's a new ingredient in the mix this time (of course, if it fails, who cares). it's not the same old/same old. Those two maps you posted earlier kind of tell the tale some that at least its not as hostile to the s/w's coming out of the northern stream, My question would be which model or models is better at handling systems when patterns are changing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It could work out for you down there. Or if could be Halifax getting the +SN after a couple more runs. It's done here I'd say. Sat 0z 0z Euro position roughly 40N 74W 12z Euro position roughly 40N 69.5W As forky notes the tendencies it's had are probably the root cause. I don't think any of us expect this scenario to play out so it's all preaching to the choir, but I bet it continues east. Chances are the other models come NW though, so we'll be left tracking another one of these squeakers. One of these days we'll get lucky, maybe it's this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 It could work out for you down there. Or if could be Halifax getting the +SN after a couple more runs. It's done here I'd say. You still actually do pretty well with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z ukie is solid. strong low looks just E of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 is the orientation of that high pretty crappy initially for EMA? 96(hr) 0ne hand almost looks like banana high but the orientation on the east side doesn't seem terribly favorable, on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z ukie is solid. strong low looks just E of the BM Yeah it is the only piece of guidance supporting the Euro right now, though it looks a shade east of the Euro. It supported it last night too to a lesser extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Funny how the modes are able to come to a clear agreement when they have a disaster like last Wednesday... but here? noooooooo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 is the orientation of that high pretty crappy initially for EMA? 96(hr) 0ne hand almost looks like banana high but the orientation on the east side doesn't seem terribly favorable, on euro it's kind of a neat set-up they way the euro and ukmet are doing this. the HP is great - first time we've had that in a long while. but the northern stream energy is pretty strong so there is initially solid return flow out ahead of the incoming surface feature from the lakes. my guess is - speculation just looking at those progs - is that that HP would be feeding down lots of low level cold...so a place like ORH would hold near like 20F or something with NNE winds, but someplace right along the coast there would be a nasty CF with ~40F air to it's east initially - with SE flow ...then once the coastal took over and bombed it would all congeal and collapse. i would take this over a crappy northern stream POS low going over Dryslot's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z euro and ukie are a big hit here. I'd take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 it's kind of a neat set-up they way the euro and ukmet are doing this. the HP is great - first time we've had that in a long while. but the northern stream energy is pretty strong so there is initially solid return flow out ahead of the incoming surface feature from the lakes. my guess is - speculation just looking at those progs - is that that HP would be feeding down lots of low level cold...so a place like ORH would hold near like 20F or something with NNE winds, but someplace right along the coast there would be a nasty CF with ~40F air to it's east initially - with SE flow ...then once the coastal took over and bombed it would all congeal and collapse. i would take this over a crappy northern stream POS low going over Dryslot's head. Yeah the Euro/Ukie scenario is light years more interesting than the northern stream by itself solution....unfortunately the latter is probably the most likely. That high really is nice. Some fairly fresh polar air with low dews would likely fuel the thermal gradient in this storm too should we infuse it with southern stream juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Sounds to me like the east trend continues. Well I'm near Albany ....that's what I meant. It sounds like this run takes us out of it even more. Maybe we can manage a few inches. East trends are not our friends, Rick. Still some time, but going the wrong way. Meanwhile, I'm now rerouted to Dallas. Will be 14 hours from my take-off at BDL to my landing at CID tonight. All I can think of is John Candy saying "those aren't pillows" on this trip. Alas. 21.0/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I wonder what the Nogaps shows. The rule is that if the Nogaps goes west of the US models with a coastal...then you know the western camp of models is gonna win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 What are the caution flags with this one? Lack of blocking? Phasing either being to late or not happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I once flew out of Love Field in Dallas on Southwest.... The ECM actually has us solidly in excess of .5" qpf despite the obvious heavier stuff further east where the low bombs. Not sure what that's about..maybe some kind of spurious inverted trough. But I'd take it. East trends are not our friends, Rick. Still some time, but going the wrong way. Meanwhile, I'm now rerouted to Dallas. Will be 14 hours from my take-off at BDL to my landing at CID tonight. All I can think of is John Candy saying "those aren't pillows" on this trip. Alas. 21.0/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 What are the caution flags with this one? Lack of blocking? Phasing either being to late or not happening? It's 2012-2013??? I once flew out of Love Field in Dallas on Southwest.... The ECM actually has us solidly in excess of .5" qpf despite the obvious heavier stuff further east where the low bombs. Not sure what that's about..maybe some kind of spurious inverted trough. But I'd take it. Really? The trend certainly isn't good, but .5 is as good as we've gotten in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It's 2012-2013??? Really? The trend certainly isn't good, but .5 is as good as we've gotten in a long time. Hard to see .5 with that setup. Maybe in the Dacks. There would likely be, and the Euro suggests, a relative min between the seaward coastal and the northern stream frontal system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 What are the caution flags with this one? Lack of blocking? Phasing either being to late or not happening? Pattern doesn't support it. Ukmet has overdeveloped every low in this pattern in the longer ranges Euro has had a tendency to dig northern s/w too much Not supported by anything but the ukmet (see above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 at least were cold. heck ill take 1 inch snows every 3 days over mild rainers. nothing is worse in the winter than a parade of mild rainers, nothing. dry and cold isn't great or really that good, but when it snows an inch every 3 days or so, ill take it over mild and rain or cold and abs. nada falling from the sky which we have seen, and this is a tiny bit better (it seems) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hmm, euro ensembles are more bullish vs 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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