Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 it's fine. i overreacted and certainly shouldn't have written what i did. it was rude and an unnecessary sucker-punch. by the same token, it would be nice if he could try act like other people's points of view are valid. I know that Tip believe's he is an "idiot savant" when it comes to meteorology - he told me this in person - but c'mon. anyway, i still think the "progressive flow" argument isn't what fails the friday deal if indeed it doesn't materialize. the long-wave pattern isn't the same by the end of the week...it's in a period of transition and isn't the same one that sent the parade of the last ump-teen number of northern stream shortwaves into a meat-grinder flow over the Northeast. We're good Phil, I was about to PM and apology because I sincerely didn't mean to come off as lofty or holier than thou. To your ending point ... yeah, I sort of agree, but as I wrote originally before we got sidetracked, the GFS will "probably" be wrong when the pattern is transitioning back to something more relaxed. Again, I suspect the main reason it's been performing better as of late is merely because the progressive nature of the flow plays right into its bias. If indeed, Friday times with some relaxation, certainly pending that verifying, sure ... the Euro solution seems more plausible. I have also noted at several times in the past this cold season that the Global models have been trying to weaken the SPV and have failed to do so ... By the way ... that whole idiot savant thing was more in jest - I think i'm probably more idiot, than idiot savant. It's just that a few times over the years I had a flash of insight for some bigger events and so forth, and wound up more right than wrong. ...3 weeks in advance or more. Not sure "what" the origin of those inspirations were, so... Big fan of teleconnector usage for ferreting out possibilities, and this is much of why. That combined with being fascinated by weather as my very first memories in life, probably all serves a strong core instinct in such matters. I haven't had as many opportunities to be social with the group during the outings and so forth, but those that really know me know that I am about as effacing as they come - really. To a fault actually - I've been taken advantage over a few times because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 OP Euro is losing the coastal....pretty clearly by 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 OP Euro is losing the coastal....pretty clearly by 72 hours. if it's going to lose the coastal...it may be because it wants a cutter. lol. i don't think this ends up out to sea on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yeah Phil, I think this run is still okay - through 72. The difference if anything is timing that southern stream impulse out of the deep SW - phasing... The issue with the relaxation of the flow is still being modeled by the Euro rather nicely, so it appears within this run its self there would be less inhibition from that source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 It still looks like its trying to spin one up to me, Its not backing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nice snowstorm on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Did it Gin one up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Wow, that 96 hour panel looks aw haw hawsome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro vs Kuro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Quite a shift east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 euro is a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Stubborn Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 That would be a great first warning event for Bryce!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Starting to give in? I don't like the Euro moving east up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 984 mb over 42/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 LOL Guess that may be curtains for us then. When Brooklyn gets a nice snowstorm it usually means a whiff up here. Nice snowstorm on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Quite a shift east though. Yeah it came east...but I'm still surprised at how much its infusing that southern stream. It just doesn't want to let go of that idea. I'm still not buying it, but that is 4 runs in a row doing it, albeit with a shift eastward each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Okay, piqued interest in this seat... The Euro, as discussed with limited success between Phil and my self ( ha ha j/k) ...is indeed relaxing the flow in the deep SE. This allows a weak perturbation in the flow to emerge out of the deep SW, which induced southerly/Gulf cyclogen, that redevelops around Cape Hat at 96 hours. D4 is entering Euro wheel house so I am definitely wondering now if the other guidance types are holding onto suppression too long. Fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Concerning about the continued east shift. Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Quite a shift east though. Yeah seems to be trending east. Hopefully the other models jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yeah Phil, I think this run is still okay - through 72. The difference if anything is timing that southern stream impulse out of the deep SW - phasing... The issue with the relaxation of the flow is still being modeled by the Euro rather nicely, so it appears within this run its self there would be less inhibition from that source. it's fine. i'm not even saying it's going to happen or work out as the euro has been saying. that's not my point all...my point was merely that the flow is evolving this week. no worries. we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Starting to give in? I don't like the Euro moving east up here. Still a decent hit but trend is a little east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yeah Phil, I think this run is still okay - through 72. The difference if anything is timing that southern stream impulse out of the deep SW - phasing... The issue with the relaxation of the flow is still being modeled by the Euro rather nicely, so it appears within this run its self there would be less inhibition from that source. It still looks like its trying to spin one up to me, Its not backing down It's slowly, inexorably going towards the other models. I thought it was further along at 72, but it still does it's thing. This is I think the 3rd epic event it's had at about this range. Blizzard conditions in parts of New England. LOL. Hey I hope it's right for sure, but I think it's terribly wrong and has been stepping east each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 LOL Guess that may be curtains for us then. When Brooklyn gets a nice snowstorm it usually means a whiff up here. Uh? I was saying a snowstorm for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 euro is rain to about a foot of concrete here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Sounds to me like the east trend continues. 984 mb over 42/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 seems like the same ole same ole 80+ hrs or so away things look awesome, by Thursday night 20 pages more and we will be talking about 1-3 and 2-4 on the outer cape. CC and Nantucket winter... it will not be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 The qpf almost matches the HPC map from this am...................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 This run is just magically perfect for the beleaguered souls of the forum!!! Just gander at this beaut of a set at 96 hours. Take note .... not of what is implicit about where this is heading (or what that result would mean...), BUT, take a look at the orientation of the isobars in relation to the thermal field - we don't get to see the thickness gradient here, but those deep layer RH panels at 700 and 850 are near 100% already; That's a wall of heavy snow most likely well out ahead of the storm its self due to a powerful IB as that flow runs over top that cold air. Man - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Well I'm near Albany ....that's what I meant. It sounds like this run takes us out of it even more. Maybe we can manage a few inches. Uh? I was saying a snowstorm for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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