Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 A few are...Ginx, Usacapecodusarmy, and you. Who else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Has there ever been a comparison to how the 18z model runs have performed in relation to the 0z and 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i think people need to NOT let Blizz effect there expecations. 1 foot plus is a ridiculous level to start IMO. Esp W SNE. This low has a 50/50 shot of being weaker/ east according to the HPC or NCEP disco and i think people would be wise to start with 3-6 and then adjust from there IF IF euro and euro ens can print out 1.00 QPF for next couple cycles, i think this may trickle east/SE (or at least that is the concern) and most are left with advisory or moderate storm. I don't think most appreciate how delicate this setup is. This is not a setup with a large margin for error like Jan 12, 2011 was with a huge block basically forcing the storm into a relatively stable track. There is a narrow window where this storm can produce big time, but given it is 3 days out, plenty easy to miss on that window. The miss solutions are still producing pretty solid qpf based on a variety of favorable parameters, so I think there is solid evidence for a plowable event. But everyone needs to temper expectations until there is further evidence that such an outcome is favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Has there ever been a comparison to how the 18z model runs have performed in relation to the 0z and 12z runs? That was mentioned quite a few pages back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 lol...how does forecasting an unfavorable solution mean someone wants it to fail? He gave some reasoning of a late phase. Because we know the guy. Btw....we need to remember that even a crappy set up is coming with a lot more water vs a "normal" situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That was mentioned quite a few pages back Sorry...was on the road home from work so I didnt see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Didn't have time earlier.... for the can't-get-much-better archives (keep the weenie buns: this is not a forecast, this is not what I'm expecting, i will not call bust if this doesn't happen... ) 3 hr snowfall at 90h Euro 12z 2/5/13: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't think most appreciate how delicate this setup is. This is not a setup with a large margin for error like Jan 12, 2011 was with a huge block basically forcing the storm into a relatively stable track. There is a narrow window where this storm can produce big time, but given it is 3 days out, plenty easy to miss on that window. The miss solutions are still producing pretty solid qpf based on a variety of favorable parameters, so I think there is solid evidence for a plowable event. But everyone needs to temper expectations until there is further evidence that such an outcome is favored. Keep fighting the good fight haha. It just seems people aren't sensing how good these "bad" runs are. 0.5"+ of QPF is a big deal this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well we know the Euro is going to come in with a bit less qpf tonight. So when it comes in with 2-3 inches of qpf instead of 3-4..please noone go and throw themself in front of the subway trains..It's going to come down somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Can one of you guys post the Japanese model for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Can one of you guys post the Japanese model for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Because we know the guy. Btw....we need to remember that even a crappy set up is coming with a lot more water vs a "normal" situation. Gotcha... and yeah, heck even the NAM is 6+ in BOS. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I certainly agree with this post. Now that the models are coming into agreement about the likely southern stream interaction, its really a case of how strong will the 500 hPa low near Greenland be when the phasing occurs. There isn't much room for this system to move northward with a strong 500 hPa low in place. would this effect the timing of the phase or more just the track post phase. i was also looking to bring up the quote another poster (pro met) had with 250 anomalies that suggest a high QPF event as well as a slowing of the storm ) does anyone have a clue what i'm talking about , i remember wx4cast use to post those 250 mb anomalies with regard to getting a hint of a slowing /stalling storm and perhaps high qpf event as well. I think this is key for a biggie assuming we can get a phase/track over bench mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't think most appreciate how delicate this setup is. This is not a setup with a large margin for error like Jan 12, 2011 was with a huge block basically forcing the storm into a relatively stable track. There is a narrow window where this storm can produce big time, but given it is 3 days out, plenty easy to miss on that window. The miss solutions are still producing pretty solid qpf based on a variety of favorable parameters, so I think there is solid evidence for a plowable event. But everyone needs to temper expectations until there is further evidence that such an outcome is favored. Well said. It's a nice threat even if the coastal misses. It's snowing for the 2nd time in 3 days and there's a nice event coming end of the week. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ginx, Usacapecodusarmy, and you. Who else? Not me. I'm expecting a warning event. 2 feet is a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That is really cool, Blizz. But seriously, can someone post the Japanese model for North America??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nice cold conveyor signal from the 12z GEFS, PWAT anomalies are just above 1 SD too. Starting to get that heavy QPF signal at 250 mb too. Seeing negative u wind anomalies aloft is typically a good sign for a slow down in forward speed. Would rather see those be true easterly winds aloft for a real stall, but this will do. this is the post i was mentioning above from oceanstwx. very interesting to see those 250 mb anomalies to get a biggie, but also i was curious if THESE factors linked contribute to why it would still be a high qpf event even with the coastal going significantly (within reason) ESE or E of bench mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I would start at an advisory amount and work your way up from there in time I'd say that's a reasonable way to play it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 would this effect the timing of the phase or more just the track post phase. i was also looking to bring up the quote another poster (pro met) had with 250 anomalies that suggest a high QPF event as well as a slowing of the storm ) does anyone have a clue what i'm talking about , i remember wx4cast use to post those 250 mb anomalies with regard to getting a hint of a slowing /stalling storm and perhaps high qpf event as well. I think this is key for a biggie assuming we can get a phase/track over bench mark. The key is the u (east-west) wind anomalies at 250 mb. Flow at this level is typically due west to east. If the winds actually reverse at that level and come out of the east, this suggests a closed system at all levels and very slow movement (i.e. high QPF). In this case winds aren't from the east at 250 mb, but the 12z GEFS suggests highly anomalous southerly flow, which would be slower than typical movement. So that lends some support to the high QPF op runs we've seen, like the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 TWC is posting a graphic showing the euro with 24+ over E MA every 15 minutes, I'm not sure they realize the general public often buys into this more than they should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We should do a new thread for the 00z runs...or start something for all the runs for Feb 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 TWC is posting a graphic showing the euro with 24+ over E MA every 15 minutes, I'm not sure they realize the general public often buys into this more than they should. More realistic than showing 36+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 TWC is posting a graphic showing the euro with 24+ over E MA every 15 minutes, I'm not sure they realize the general public often buys into this more than they should. I think that's exactly why they're doing it, more eyeballs on the TV. Then if this slides out to sea, they'll throw up an episode of Storm Stories and not have to explain what went wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'd say that's a reasonable way to play it. Still 2.5 days out and nothing has been established with where this is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 TWC is posting a graphic showing the euro with 24+ over E MA every 15 minutes, I'm not sure they realize the general public often buys into this more than they should. That's what causes problems. General public sees an early map, assumes that's it verbatim and tunes out, and gets pissed when things don't happen that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 TWC is posting a graphic showing the euro with 24+ over E MA every 15 minutes, I'm not sure they realize the general public often buys into this more than they should. Wait... People still watch the Weather Channel? It doesn't seem that long ago when that was all most of us had to go on. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I kinda like some of the analogs from this mornings GFS run......... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&model=GFS212&map=COOP%20SNOW&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That is really cool, Blizz. But seriously, can someone post the Japanese model for North America??? . Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Done.., Lets move on over http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39203-feb-8th-9th-potential-coastal-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Keep fighting the good fight haha. It just seems people aren't sensing how good these "bad" runs are. 0.5"+ of QPF is a big deal this winter lol Exactly.5 is 10 times better than whats happen over the last four systems, literally, I think this will tick SE a bit, but i dont think it is as progressive as the pattern has been. I would say 4-6 and be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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