Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z GFS definitely not biting on the larger solution...it likes the idea of a very paltry event. Yeah, very meh. I don't see how it turns around either to the big solution based on these flat models. There's just no room...so either they're totally off their rockers or the Euro OP will gave to its own ensembles and the rest of the models soon. The days of the inside 96hr take it to the bank euro has been gone for a while Yeah those were good days. Definitely a lot of forecasters which those days would come back....lol. This "uncertainty up to the last minute" crap is not much fun I imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 so why isnt someone fixing the euro then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z GFS really slows the s/w down south this run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The gfs does try to get something going at the last second over the se, but too late verbatim. It I a slight improvement for those that are looking for hope, but a long log way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 The gfs does try to get something going at the last second over the se, but too late verbatim. It I a slight improvement for those that are looking for hope, but a long log way to go. Looked better then 0z with the wave down south but definitely not there yet if it gets there at all, But a lot of time on this one if we use how the rest of this winter has gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GFS gives me nothing for this one... Euro has a snow/rain/snow bomb and GFS clouds. Model Mayhem at it's finest! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GFS gives me nothing for this one... Euro has a snow/rain/snow bomb and GFS clouds. Model Mayhem at it's finest! -skisheep I thought someone said the Euro ensembles were a no go? Still an ocean storm, just the same old deal on the scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I have about 80% confidence the euro looks a lot worse this run. You have multiple Op. GFS runs, the ens, the euro ens and all other models showing a solution against what the euro has. The chance of all of them being wrong and the euro being right has to be less than 5%. Although some ens members did show a decent hit but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 I thought someone said the Euro ensembles were a no go? Still an ocean storm, just the same old deal on the scraper. Nah, They said it was different then the op, And that was the description i heard to what it shows, SE of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nah, They said it was different then the op, And that was the description i heard to what it shows, SE of the op offshore storm seems about right, GFS bends that way, op euro bends that way, consensus. Excitement. Hopefully you get some snow from a few events this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I don't know -- the dose of reality in my mind is that the speed of the flow being so fast, I don't see any reason why it will miraculously slow down in time for a Euro solution - particularly when the Euro has incorrectly assessed a slowing flow at several other middle range periods this cold season. Too much lust/obsession over a model that really quite frankly has not performed as well as the GFS in recent times. The reason for that [ most likely ] is because the fast bias of the flow plays right into the GFS native progressive error tendency. At some point, the flow will relax ... when that happens, it is quite possible the GFS would not see a system relying on that transition from longitudinal to latitudinal flow - is that this Friday? Perhaps .... time will tell. The Euro does show the SPV over eastern Canada filling slightly, while also wobbling a bit higher in latitude. That does indeed "relax" the flow a little along the MA, which fits into better potential within the run its self; but again, it has done this several times erroneously this cold season. The seasonal trend of storm suppression is still at large until quantifiable evidence of flow slowing is observed, and the GFS is given sort of an unfair head start in the race toward accuracy for D5's given to it's native progressive bias. The other thing, the last 3 run of the Euro have actually gotten weaker in the deep layer structure by small increments, consecutively. It may in fact be that the model is slowly conceding to a persistent speed/suppression. Probably not what the stat wants to hear, no - but objectively, the onus is on the Euro to pull this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 offshore storm seems about right, GFS bends that way, op euro bends that way, consensus. Excitement. Hopefully you get some snow from a few events this week. Thanks, Probably more from the Friday one then Weds, A couple inches here in there does not excite me to much, Winter is slowly slipping away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'd bet on some sort of compromise, Leaning towards GFS, I'd bet on an advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 i disagree that this has as much to do with the speed of the flow...instead it's just timing and phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 i disagree that this has as much to do with the speed of the flow...instead it's just timing and phasing. Then you'd be incorrect. S/W can't induce jet responses when their local impulse wind velocities are insufficient to induce restoring forces. Inflow ... Flow is balanced a 70kts, S/W =100 kts ; 30kts of differential won't do the trick. The Euro run explains this perfectly. It is attempting to slow the field, such that the S/W that it uses maintains coherence in the flow, and viola. The GFS, doesn't - This is just right - sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Then you'd be incorrect. S/W can't induce jet responses when their local impulse wind velocities are insufficient to induce restoring forces. Inflow ... Flow is balanced a 70kts, S/W =100 kts ; 30kts of differential won't do the trick. The Euro run explains this perfectly. It is attempting to slow the field, such that the S/W that it uses maintains coherence in the flow, and viola. The GFS, doesn't - This is just right - sorry Wow. What a weenie. Get back into bed lay there for a few minutes and get up out of the other side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I don't often agree with Cisco, but I do in this case .... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1001 AM EST MON FEB 04 2013VALID 12Z THU FEB 07 2013 - 12Z MON FEB 11 2013RELIED ON THE 04/00Z ECENS MEAN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FRONTS ANDPRESSURES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN STABLEFOR FOUR MODEL CYCLES NOW WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ANDCENTRAL UNITED STATES--QUITE PREPOSSESSING FOR THE OUTCOME OVERTHOSE PORTIONS OF THE NATION. ALONG THE EAST COAST, THE ECENS MEANHAS BEEN TRENDING MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE WAVE EMERGING OVER THEATLANTIC DAY 4. THE 00Z/04 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF BUCKED THE TREND OFITS ATTENDANT MEANS WITH A STRONGER LOW ALONG THE DELMARVAPENINSULA--A STRONG STRIKE AGAINST THAT MODEL. FURTHERMORE, THEOTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE DAY 4WAVE, WITH NO DIRECT SUPPORT FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE NEXTSIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THEPERIOD, REGROUPING OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYS6 AND 7. NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ARE INDICATED THISPERIOD, SO SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS.CISCO Suppression is synonymous with speed in the flow - the two reflective of one another and cannot be mutually exclusive. What I was saying to Phil, above, is in short arithmetic as to what happens to S/W in suppressed, fast, flows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Something tells me the 18z KURO will follow what ever the Euro does at 12z...if the EC shows the 4th straight coastal, KURO is coming on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Something tells me the 18z KURO will follow what ever the Euro does at 12z...if the EC shows the 4th straight coastal, KURO is coming on board.No I am firmly against any snow with Friday deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I agree with you about getting this over early one as it is much less frustrating than ones that storms that string you along and then don't produce at the last minute. As frustrating as this winter has been, at least we have know for at least 72 hours prior that the storm was a miss. This week appears to be more of the same as I think by Tuesday we will be pretty certain about another miss and then the same 10 people can track another coating to and inch for 40 pages. Too funny...40 pages.... I fly to St Maarten on Friday from JFK so the odds are higher for a storm simply for that reason alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 No I am firmly against any snow with Friday deal lol ok we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GGEM looks like an advisory event, prob issues on the coast though with onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Then you'd be incorrect. S/W can't induce jet responses when their local impulse wind velocities are insufficient to induce restoring forces. Inflow ... Flow is balanced a 70kts, S/W =100 kts ; 30kts of differential won't do the trick. The Euro run explains this perfectly. It is attempting to slow the field, such that the S/W that it uses maintains coherence in the flow, and viola. The GFS, doesn't - This is just right - sorry Tip Rather than say you're right and everyone else is wrong, just explain why you feel the way you do and leave it at that. Nothing wrong with disagreeing with someone else's POV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 GGEM looks like an advisory event, prob issues on the coast though with onshore flow. Yeah, Was not to bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Tip Rather than say you're right and everyone else is wrong, just explain why you feel the way you do and leave it at that. Nothing wrong with disagreeing with someone else's POV. Where did I say everyone else is wrong? No where. I merely said he would be incorrect - it is COLOSSALLY immature/adversarial to not be able to withstand that challenge, which was delivered without malice or prejudice. His choosing to instead be insulting is deeply reflective of that limitation/dysfunction. Whether he just had a bad day going on, or not, fine - I'll even offer apologies because I am not unsympathetic ... However, I will not accept your critique, because I did NOTHING wrong. And you are right, there is nothing wrong with disagreeing - and that is ALL that I did, and gave clad reasons why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Tip Rather than say you're right and everyone else is wrong, just explain why you feel the way you do and leave it at that. Nothing wrong with disagreeing with someone else's POV. Rather than come out and say the patronizing thing in public to fan the flames, just explain the issue in a pm and leave it at that. Nothing wrong with actually moderating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Tip Rather than say you're right and everyone else is wrong, just explain why you feel the way you do and leave it at that. Nothing wrong with disagreeing with someone else's POV. it's fine. i overreacted and certainly shouldn't have written what i did. it was rude and an unnecessary sucker-punch. by the same token, it would be nice if he could try act like other people's points of view are valid. I know that Tip believe's he is an "idiot savant" when it comes to meteorology - he told me this in person - but c'mon. anyway, i still think the "progressive flow" argument isn't what fails the friday deal if indeed it doesn't materialize. the long-wave pattern isn't the same by the end of the week...it's in a period of transition and isn't the same one that sent the parade of the last ump-teen number of northern stream shortwaves into a meat-grinder flow over the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 it's fine. i overreacted and certainly shouldn't have written what i did. it was rude and an unnecessary sucker-punch. by the same token, it would be nice if he could try act like other people's points of view are valid. I know that Tip believe's he is an "idiot savant" when it comes to meteorology - he told me this in person - but c'mon. anyway, i still think the "progressive flow" argument isn't what fails the friday deal if indeed it doesn't materialize. the long-wave pattern isn't the same by the end of the week...it's in a period of transition and isn't the same one that sent the parade of the last ump-teen number of northern stream shortwaves into a meat-grinder flow over the Northeast. It would be the lack of a phase, But the s/w in itself in the northern stream is a little more robust by itself then the last few including the weds deal on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 to illustrate: this is a meat-grinder/suppressive/fast flow right now: this at the end of the week...is not NEARLY as bad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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