Amped Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Doesn't the 18z gfs now match up pretty close to the 12z op ggem and the 12z euro ensemble mean? Not trying to poo poo on everyone's 30" blizzard dreams. Euro pulled this at the same range on December 19 2010. Showed 1-2" liquid from Virgina to cape Cod with little support from other models. Sure enough it backed down the next run. There just isn't enough time in this pattern to get widespread 20" amounts. I am calling flop on this storm 3-6" cape and interior with a sloppy 1" along the CT coast and NYC. Admittedly I have no proof, just a lot of balls and a very progressive flow where things need to be perfect to get a hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro pulled this at the same range on December 19 2010. Showed 1-2" liquid from Virgina to cape Cod with little support from other models. Sure enough it backed down the next run. There just isn't enough time in this pattern to get widespread 20" amounts. I am calling flop on this storm 3-6" cape and interior with a sloppy 1" along the CT coast and NYC. Admittedly I have no proof, just a lot of balls and a very progressive flow where things need to be perfect to get a hecs. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro pulled this at the same range on December 19 2010. Showed 1-2" liquid from Virgina to cape Cod with little support from other models. Sure enough it backed down the next run. There just isn't enough time in this pattern to get widespread 20" amounts. I am calling flop on this storm 3-6" cape and interior with a sloppy 1" along the CT coast and NYC. Admittedly I have no proof, just a lot of balls and a very progressive flow where things need to be perfect to get a hecs. Even if the 3+" depiction is a flop, the fact is, its been showing 1+" for the last, what is it... 6 runs now? Do you not trust those runs either? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 We are not in Maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I can't see that maps cors on my phone. Lots if moisture I hope??? Salesteam reception and dinner tonight ftl. Tough to sneak Erika at models. iPhone using Safari? Click and hold on the photo. Select copy. Open a new tab and paste the URL into the address bar. Then you should be able to zoom in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Seriously, i will take 3" of slop right now, instead of adding four .25 events to pad my totals one inch higher. Although law of averages and the " somethings gotta give eventually" theory tells me it gon snow good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro pulled this at the same range on December 19 2010. Showed 1-2" liquid from Virgina to cape Cod with little support from other models. Sure enough it backed down the next run. There just isn't enough time in this pattern to get widespread 20" amounts. I am calling flop on this storm 3-6" cape and interior with a sloppy 1" along the CT coast and NYC. Admittedly I have no proof, just a lot of balls and a very progressive flow where things need to be perfect to get a hecs. Umm that's not what I am suggesting as the 18gfs is still a solid hit for many, just not an epic blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro pulled this at the same range on December 19 2010. Showed 1-2" liquid from Virgina to cape Cod with little support from other models. Sure enough it backed down the next run. There just isn't enough time in this pattern to get widespread 20" amounts. I am calling flop on this storm 3-6" cape and interior with a sloppy 1" along the CT coast and NYC. Admittedly I have no proof, just a lot of balls and a very progressive flow where things need to be perfect to get a hecs. More than 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Peterburation wants this to fail. Aot of us cheered you on 3 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That's a solid warning snow of 6-10" for all...not sure why everyone keeps seeing it as a "bad run." You already know there are going to be folks disappointed on Friday if they "only" get 8.5" of snow, lol. All over one ECM run. Every other ECM run had half the QPF as 12z. Well we tried to tell people not to expect the KU solutuon yet, but we know that many will not listen to a word of that and will start yelling bust every single model run from here on out that doesn't show over 18" of snow. Joke's on them if they react like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 it could easily phase a few hours too late and miss most to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 A reasonable expectation from this is 1-2 inches of melted qpf. The 3-4 inch amounts are amped up and wild..If you plan on 1-2 melted you will be happy and in the ballpark. Don;t plan on 2-3 feet..just plan on around a foot and then adjust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I really don't think anyone is thinking 2 feet at this point No one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 A reasonable expectation from this is 1-2 inches of melted qpf. The 3-4 inch amounts are amped up and wild..If you plan on 1-2 melted you will be happy and in the ballpark. Don;t plan on 2-3 feet..just plan on around a foot and then adjust it's too early to mention any amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Water Vapor imagery suggests the northern stream energy is spilling into SErn Alberta, Canada and the southern energy is over SW Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I would start at an advisory amount and work your way up from there in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looking at the modeled differences for 00z Wednesday, the 12z GFS is best represented for its 12 hour forecast, better then the 18z GFS and 18z NAM runs and the 00z EURO seemed right in line with current guidance and water vapor imagery, corrections will be made on the 00z GFS and 00z NAM runs. With most notable between the 18z runs and 00z runs. GFS is coming back west in line with the 12z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You moving? 12z or v18z is still a good moderate event in W. MA and E. NY. I need my qpf fetish satisfied. Excitement builds. Wonder if I might need to reschedule house hunting in Jackson this weekend. Good reason if I have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Water Vapor imagery suggests the northern stream energy is spilling into SErn Alberta, Canada and the southern energy is over SW Texas. I think our northern stream shortwave is actually near the British Columbia coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Water Vapor imagery suggests the northern stream energy is spilling into SErn Alberta, Canada and the southern energy is over SW Texas. What in the sam hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 it could easily phase a few hours too late and miss most to the east Yes it would turn into just a norlun troff event. Models and ensembles not very consistent with the track of the surface low so it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Having not used my snowblower in 2 years, I will be happy with 6" and take it from there. Anything else is gravy in our, as of late, snowless existence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What in the sam hell? I'm confused with this statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm confused with this statement We're all confused with every single one of your posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Having not used my snowblower in 2 years, I will be happy with 6" and take it from there. Anything else is gravy in our, as of late, snowless existence. I seriously considered moving it back to the shed last weekend... barely used since Oct 2011. Maybe 4 times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How are you confused with my statements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This thread is funny... Get a grip everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i think people need to NOT let Blizz effect there expecations. 1 foot plus is a ridiculous level to start IMO. Esp W SNE. This low has a 50/50 shot of being weaker/ east according to the HPC or NCEP disco and i think people would be wise to start with 3-6 and then adjust from there IF IF euro and euro ens can print out 1.00 QPF for next couple cycles, i think this may trickle east/SE (or at least that is the concern) and most are left with advisory or moderate storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I really don't think anyone is thinking 2 feet at this point No one A few are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Peterburation wants this to fail. Aot of us cheered you on 3 years ago. lol...how does forecasting an unfavorable solution mean someone wants it to fail? He gave some reasoning of a late phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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