USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Synoptically speaking the 18z GFS is just as likely as both the 12z EURO and GFS runs. Its probably more likely that the 18z GFS is right based on the progressive nature of the jet stream and the way models have trended within this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z GEFS are SE of 12z and warmer so less phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Also FWIW the 18z RGEM is not as strong with the northern system as the earlier 12z run. Most systems JMHO as they approached ended up being modeled weaker and weaker in the northern stream. You know, no matter what the cycle, I could run out and find the crappinest most disappointing solutions and bandy them as the end of days, too - Let's let it ride for while, gee wiz. The 30 hour trend is toward higher impact - just because one interval stepped...meaninglessly back in scale, doesn't mean much - there's too much weight on the former to allow one cycle that much proxy on one's decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You are missing the point. It had a massive blizzard 6 hours ago . 12 hours before that it was a whiff. You can't use a model like that. None us saying the 3 feet on the euro is right but at least it's been consistent That's a good point.. Also, does one jump off the bridge over an 18z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can you go 200 miles this weekend? Is it south of Mass.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z GEFS are SE of 12z and warmer so less phase. Not unexpected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looks fine lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Stupid question here, but when do the next round of models come out? The EURO doesn't come out till around 1am right? Nam 8:38 pm GFS 10:25 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You know, no matter what the cycle, I could run out and find the crappinest most disappointing solutions and bandy them as the end of days, too - Let's let it ride for while, gee wiz. The 30 your trend is toward higher impact - just because one interval stepped...meaninglessly back in scale, doesn't mean much - there's too much weight on the former to allow one cycle that much proxy on one's decision. I was telling people in the NYC forum be careful about wishing for the weaker primary because while we flood less with warm air if that happens we may have a later phase on the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You are missing the point. It had a massive blizzard 6 hours ago . 12 hours before that it was a whiff. You can't use a model like that. None us saying the 3 feet on the euro is right but at least it's been consistent 6 hours ago the shortwaves were timed well enough to make a blizzard, now the timing is off just enough that it escapes more east before bombing. That is still valuable information. And a Euro/GFS is still a big hit for part of New England. Too early to toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I need my qpf fetish satisfied. Excitement builds. Wonder if I might need to reschedule house hunting in Jackson this weekend. Good reason if I have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 I was telling people in the NYC forum be careful about wishing for the weaker primary because while we flood less with warm air if that happens we may have a later phase on the second low. This point can't be driven home enough, That is the key feature to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You know, no matter what the cycle, I could run out and find the crappinest most disappointing solutions and bandy them as the end of days, too - Let's let it ride for while, gee wiz. The 30 your trend is toward higher impact - just because one interval stepped...meaninglessly back in scale, doesn't mean much - there's too much weight on the former to allow one cycle that much proxy on one's decision. Well it's a forecasting discussion thread tip, there's plenty of room for pros and cons. I put the chances of a euro op verifying at near nil but that's IMHO and nobody else has to agree of disagree it doesn't matter to me either way. I think the situation with the northern stream being over modeled are probably going to come into play. IE it doesn't dig as much which allows the southern stream to gain more east first. I hope I'm totally and miserably wrong. Just to be clear. I will take a track SE of the BM I think for now but it's 3 days away so anything can happen. The 3+ inch qpf on the op euro should warrant skepticism on how it arrived at that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would just like to point out that the most recent run of the Euro still shows a bomb for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Doesn't look so bad friends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Will you look at that erection aiming for western Manitoba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well it's a forecasting discussion thread tip, there's plenty of room for pros and cons. I put the chances of a euro op verifying at near nil but that's IMHO and nobody else has to agree of disagree it doesn't matter to me either way. I think the situation with the northern stream being over modeled are probably going to come into play. IE it doesn't dig as much which allows the southern stream to gain more east first. I hope I'm totally and miserably wrong. Just to be clear. I will take a track SE of the BM I think for now but it's 3 days away so anything can happen. The 3+ inch qpf on the op euro should warrant skepticism on how it arrived at that solution. How? Its quite a viable solution getting up to 3"+ of QPF. The H5 low closes off as the two streams phase creating a 973mb surface low which brings blizzard conditions and wild QPF numbers in a 6 hour time period. Those wild numbers in QPF are viable in the situation that was being modeled, so I don't think people should be skeptic of the 12z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You are missing the point. It had a massive blizzard 6 hours ago . 12 hours before that it was a whiff. You can't use a model like that. None us saying the 3 feet on the euro is right but at least it's been consistent It's really not that much different except the phase is later. It still has the bomb it's just further east. And how the heck is 1" QPF at BDL "a whiff"? GFS is still warning snow for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Doesn't look so bad friends... I can't see that maps cors on my phone. Lots if moisture I hope??? Salesteam reception and dinner tonight ftl. Tough to sneak Erika at models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I can't see that maps cors on my phone. Lots if moisture I hope??? Salesteam reception and dinner tonight ftl. Tough to sneak Erika at models. Oops. Peeks, not Erika. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Doesn't look so bad friends... That's a solid warning snow of 6-10" for all...not sure why everyone keeps seeing it as a "bad run." You already know there are going to be folks disappointed on Friday if they "only" get 8.5" of snow, lol. All over one ECM run. Every other ECM run had half the QPF as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How? Its quite a viable solution getting up to 3"+ of QPF. The H5 low closes off as the two streams phase creating a 973mb surface low which brings blizzard conditions and wild QPF numbers in a 6 hour time period. Those wild numbers in QPF are viable in the situation that was being modeled, so I don't think people should be skeptic of the 12z EURO. It's more that people are skeptical of modeled historic events at this lead time. There's a reason these events don't happen as often as they are modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Oops. Peeks, not Erika. Lol Cmon..Tell the truth.. Who's Erika, and why does she have to 'sneak' to see the models?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That's a solid warning snow of 6-10" for all...not sure why everyone keeps seeing it as a "bad run." You already know there are going to be folks disappointed on Friday if they "only" get 8.5" of snow, lol. All over one ECM run. Every other ECM run had half the QPF as 12z. No one said the GEFS were a bad run AFAIK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It's more that people are skeptical of modeled historic events at this lead time. There's a reason these events don't happen as often as they are modeled. Yes but events like these are modeled too often as you think with this type of consistency. Makes you wonder what the EURO is seeing and the other models aren't seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 It's more that people are skeptical of modeled historic events at this lead time. There's a reason these events don't happen as often as they are modeled. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Doesn't the 18z gfs now match up pretty close to the 12z op ggem and the 12z euro ensemble mean? Not trying to poo poo on everyone's 30" blizzard dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The only useful 18z GFS run was 12/24/2010. But that was only because 12z had been initially dismissed as an initialization error. 18z hinted that it's solution was still valid. Other than that there is too much noise in 18z runs to establish any trends. Really need to wait for a 12 or 00z runs to get a full consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It's more that people are skeptical of modeled historic events at this lead time. There's a reason these events don't happen as often as they are modeled. People would be rightly skeptical of 3.5" liquid at any lead time. Right until they buried the yardstick in fact. It's like an over under of 100 in a football game. Could be Boise State at Hawaii, there's nowhere to go but down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Facts are we have a storm to track and thats all we could wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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