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Feb 8th-9th Do We Finally Get A Coastal?


dryslot

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24 hours ago it was a miss while euro had been bomb after bomb then GFS jumps on board them off. Garbage

I've had the potential for a big winter storm in the forecast since Saturday. Odds have changed obviously but I don't the the 12z euro solution is the most likely one.

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It's more than that ... The N stream impulse is a couple of ticks weaker.  

 

But, the variations are subtle - it is just as likely that the next cycle run will have corrected back and probably will, and it probably will correct back even more. 

These types of "coming into focus" type systems moving from middle to shorter ranges typically oscillate back and forth across subsequent runs, while the "gap" between runs slowly shrinks until there's some consensus around ...oh, 30 hours lead or so.   

 

Then it all falls apart anyway, but that's another story... Anywho... provided the flow still allows the southern impulse to not get lost in speed shear, and the N stream comes back just a little, the impact profile on this is entirely different than the 18 z run, and we are really talking tiny alterations to get there.   

 

I think waiting 24 hours and just enjoying - or not - the runs is best.  There's not a lot of certitude, or point, in doing otherwise right now. 

My hunch on the bolded is that isn't the case.

 

I agree totally with the last sentence, just time to enjoy whatever unfolds in the models while mood snow falls.

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I could be wrong, but I was under the impression surface data and data from satellites is input into the off runs of the GFS, it isn't 100% initalized off the prior run.  One of the NCEP people would be helpful.

 

 

That is the case with all 4 runs. Initialized off the prior run, and surface, radar, and satellite data are input to provide some correction. It is only 00z/12z which get a correction from upper air data, which obviously is a huge help to getting the initial height fields.

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Sorry I didn't buy into the 45" euro snowstorm or any of the epic hits and I said that prior to the 18z gfs running and all along.

I like a slightly more amplified ggem type system.

I agree with you, a monster is potentially not a viable option at this point, its possible, but not likely at this time range.  It would be great and all to see 16-20" on the coast after it rains for a bit, but its too aggressive.

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My hunch on the bolded is that isn't the case.

 

I agree totally with the last sentence, just time to enjoy whatever unfolds in the models while mood snow falls.

 

 

 

well, for what it is worth, I stated earlier than i thought the Euro would come back quite strong and that was pretty much perfectly called.  

 

I have also noticed that your "hunches" tend to be half empty glasses much of the time - haha

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This...meanwhile the Euro has been steadfast.

Its no surprise given its involving more of the southern stream than any events this winter that the Euro has been more on top of it.  I've seen the idea floating that since we have alot of northern stream action still on this that the GFS could be more accurate in the end but I don't know if I buy that, I've noticed that while the GFS handles the northern stream better at times in events only involving the northern stream it seems to get lost on the systems which start involving energy coming out of the southern branch.

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I'll buy a consistent Euro solution over any GFS run all day long, but any QPF depiction should be taken with a grain of salt at this hour.  It probably got a little crazy there and needs to calm down a bit, but ultimately I'd be surprised if synoptically it ended up more like the 18z than the Euro.

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well, for what it is worth, I stated earlier than i thought the Euro would come back quite strong and that was pretty much perfectly called.  

 

I have also noticed that your "hunches" tend to be half empty glasses much of the time - haha

 

Also FWIW the 18z RGEM is not as strong with the northern system as the earlier 12z run.

 

Most systems JMHO as they approached ended up being modeled weaker and weaker in the northern stream. 

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You crap on every threat...

 

Seriously though, the 12z Euro should be regarded as nothing more than the absolute ideal solution if everything were to break right. If we're tossing a run that might be the one to toss. Even so, the probabilistic forecast looks great for a warning criteria event, but throwing out the 24+ numbers at this range is a little over the top.

 

 

Violently agree and will shake someone senseless that does not

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I'll buy a consistent Euro solution over any GFS run all day long, but any QPF depiction should be taken with a grain of salt at this hour.  It probably got a little crazy there and needs to calm down a bit, but ultimately I'd be surprised if synoptically it ended up more like the 18z than the Euro.

 

I think this is part of what is getting lost here. Because the Euro has been consistent synoptically, the QPF must be right. That just isn't the case though.

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I'll buy a consistent Euro solution over any GFS run all day long, but any QPF depiction should be taken with a grain of salt at this hour. It probably got a little crazy there and needs to calm down a bit, but ultimately I'd be surprised if synoptically it ended up more like the 18z than the Euro.

I hope no one was taking the 3+" of qpf to heart... neat wx porn, but hard to pull off. But the sort of strung out GFS is waffling a bit and I think it gets its act together in the next 12-24 hours.

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Synoptically speaking the 12z EURO is just as great with QPF as the 12z GFS was.  What I mean is that the EURO handled precip on que with the intensity of the storm itself and the location or track it had taken, therefore its just as likely to have the 12z EURO verify as the 18z GFS verify.  ANy solution is a potential one at this point, but one being the 12z EURO and GFS is much more viable given the idea is agreed upon by two of the major models.  GGEM is a hair too far east at this point.  UKMET is a hair off.

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The 18z GFS looks like it feeds deep Atlantic moisture into the northern stream clipper giving the region warning criteria snows for a wide region.

 

I like the 3"+ QPF amounts given the synoptics on the 12z EURO, it adds up well.

 

Why I like the EURO in this case?  The southern stream involvement is weak, but is still quite viable compared to other events.  The weaker nature of the disturbance makes it even more likely to succumb to the impacts of the northern stream disturbance and ride up the coast and have the northern stream energy phase or transfer into the southern stream system.  This will likely start as rain for Cape Cod, MA and the Islands given warm southeasterly flow ahead of the northern stream disturbance before the transfer completes.  Then heavy snows will start to fall over the entire region as evaporative and dynamical cooling overtakes the column and cools it down as the storm explodes down into the sub 980mb range at the benchmark.  Feet of snow is a possibility.

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The unphased, east solution is synopitcally viable, anybody who isn't considering that option is being a little irresponsible.

You are missing the point. It had a massive blizzard 6 hours ago . 12 hours before that it was a whiff. You can't use a model like that. None us saying the 3 feet on the euro is right but at least it's been consistent
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