dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 No confusion, Pretty easy to figure why it was not as good as the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Look at how one off hour model run had created all sorts of confusion. Yeah...looking forward to the 0z runs tonight. I think we will ultimately see something similar to the Euro run this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Do you expect it to shift NW in 6 hours? (serious question)With as bad ad the Gfs was with this until today I don't know what it will spit out next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Nogaps a hit still but not as amped. Would be a nice solution actually. Its comma head seems more legit, to me the GFS was compressed with it, I know a few posters have said they've noticed that tendency on occassion with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah...looking forward to the 0z runs tonight. I think we will ultimately see something similar to the Euro run this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Cweats new name is brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Tip was writing for days about how this is the lead time when the models all the sudden speed things up and the flow gets too fast for storms to go bonkers...wonder if we start to see that. It's possible ... interesting test on whether the flow actually does in fact slow down enough this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would bang this if they said i could on friday............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Anyone wanna post a weenie snow map for the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Oh, come on. 32" is a virtual lock in Amherst,NH, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well the GFS reiterates the same old pattern problems we've been in which many have stated. Nobody should hump, toss, or whatever..just stating what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Oh, come on. 32" is a virtual lock in Amherst,NH, no? LOL...obviously I am aware that it won't be that good. Was just trying to say I expect the 0z runs to continue what we saw this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I believe that 18z for instance is run by taking the 12z GFS forecast valid at 18z and initiating the model off that. This is the same way that the 12z is initialized as well (using 06z forecast), only the 12z (likewise 00z) benefits from the roab network providing the correction to reality. Not surprising that 06z/18z verify worse on average, because they don't have the upper air correction. And as always, one model run shouldn't change your forecast that dramatically in the first place. See , if this is all really true, I can see why some NWS Mets assert that it is "like" another ensemble member - even though technically it's not. I don't see, though, how what they are doing for input schemes into the grid is inherently going to make the run better, because that stupid "chaos" factor and that there is no guarantee that grid point data is accurate even after 6 hours (any subtle perturbation may just as well get blown up into an accuracy issue). Hell, I don't know - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It's possible ... interesting test on whether the flow actually does in fact slow down enough this time. Yeah it will be interesting as this is that time range lead where every threat in the past month has taken off SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well lets be real, the euro is the only model showing ridiculousness. The euro ensembles definitely are more realistic. The pattern simply does not support the 12z euro. Doesn't mean a biggie can't happen, but my guess is BOS is not getting 30+" of snow. Call it a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would bang this if they said i could on friday............... p120i.gif Almost an EC ens QPF carbon copy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 See , if this is all really true, I can see why some NWS Mets assert that it is "like" another ensemble member - even though technically it's not. I don't see, though, how what they are doing for input schemes into the grid is inherently going to make the run better, because that stupid "chaos" factor and that there is no guarantee that grid point data is accurate even after 6 hours (any subtle perturbation may just as well get blown up into an accuracy issue). Hell, I don't know - I've noticed tendencies on the 18 and 06Z runs of both the models...the 06Z NAM and 18Z GFS tend to be suppressed, the 18Z NAM, especially in the shorter range can sometimes go bonkers on QPF when the 12 and 00Z runs otherwise are similar. I'm not sure why that happens but it seems to be the way those runs like leaning alot of the time when a big system is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Instead of helping determine a solution the Gfs just created more confusion as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 LOL to a lot of folks on here. Haven't seen this much excitement in quite some time. Anyways GFS seems to have convection problems over HSE and just off the coast. To me this storm comes more NNEward up the coast more so then the GFS shows. Quick transfer and a bigger QPF storm as the 12z GFS and EURO show. I could see how this duration of the storm lengthens as H5 closed low develops as the two vort maxes or energy bundles phase, 12z EURO shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well lets be real, the euro is the only model showing ridiculousness. The euro ensembles definitely are more realistic. The pattern simply does not support the 12z euro. Doesn't mean a biggie can't happen, but my guess is BOS is not getting 30+" of snow. Call it a hunch. Uh uh uh - don't forget the Japanese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Almost an EC ens QPF carbon copy. To bad its not thurs, That would make the whole region happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well lets be real, the euro is the only model showing ridiculousness. The euro ensembles definitely are more realistic. The pattern simply does not support the 12z euro. Doesn't mean a biggie can't happen, but my guess is BOS is not getting 30+" of snow. Call it a hunch. I'd say that's a pretty good hunch. I'd say the odds of 6"+ here is about 50/50 which is pretty good! Ill take it for this crappy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS didn't create more confusion, it simply lent another potential solution if the low moves 50 miles further east then the 12z run, its not a chaotic scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Rollo = hump Kevin = toss. Sorry I didn't buy into the 45" euro snowstorm or any of the epic hits and I said that prior to the 18z gfs running and all along.I like a slightly more amplified ggem type system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Instead of helping determine a solution the Gfs just created more confusion as usual I don't think it's created any confusion. It's solution is more reasonable than the euro IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z GFS has just a potential scenario as the 12z run showed. It just shows how a storm can miss us by 50 miles too far east in becoming a monster, and how fickle these events and elusive these events truly are to this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well lets be real, the euro is the only model showing ridiculousness. The euro ensembles definitely are more realistic. The pattern simply does not support the 12z euro. Doesn't mean a biggie can't happen, but my guess is BOS is not getting 30+" of snow. Call it a hunch. You crap on every threat... Seriously though, the 12z Euro should be regarded as nothing more than the absolute ideal solution if everything were to break right. If we're tossing a run that might be the one to toss. Even so, the probabilistic forecast looks great for a warning criteria event, but throwing out the 24+ numbers at this range is a little over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I don't think it's created any confusion. It's solution is more reasonable than the euro IMO.24 hours ago it was a miss while euro had been bomb after bomb then GFS jumps on board them off. Garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 LOL to a lot of folks on here. Haven't seen this much excitement in quite some time. Anyways GFS seems to have convection problems over HSE and just off the coast. To me this storm comes more NNEward up the coast more so then the GFS shows. Quick transfer and a bigger QPF storm as the 12z GFS and EURO show. I could see how this duration of the storm lengthens as H5 closed low develops as the two vort maxes or energy bundles phase, 12z EURO shows it. It's more than that ... The N stream impulse is a couple of ticks weaker. But, the variations are subtle - it is just as likely that the next cycle run will have corrected back and probably will, and it probably will correct back even more. These types of "coming into focus" type systems moving from middle to shorter ranges typically oscillate back and forth across subsequent runs, while the "gap" between runs slowly shrinks until there's some consensus around ...oh, 30 hours lead or so. Then it all falls apart anyway, but that's another story... Anywho... provided the flow still allows the southern impulse to not get lost in speed shear, and the N stream comes back just a little, the impact profile on this is entirely different than the 18 z run, and we are really talking tiny alterations to get there. I think waiting 24 hours and just enjoying - or not - the runs is best. There's not a lot of certitude, or point, in doing otherwise right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 See , if this is all really true, I can see why some NWS Mets assert that it is "like" another ensemble member - even though technically it's not. I don't see, though, how what they are doing for input schemes into the grid is inherently going to make the run better, because that stupid "chaos" factor and that there is no guarantee that grid point data is accurate even after 6 hours (any subtle perturbation may just as well get blown up into an accuracy issue). Hell, I don't know - I could be wrong, but I was under the impression surface data and data from satellites is input into the off runs of the GFS, it isn't 100% initalized off the prior run. One of the NCEP people would be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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