Ryan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 FWIW, Pete is getting aboard. How quickly things change...he tweeted #nophasing at 9am this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I've noticed that 18Z runs can start a trend for the 0Z runs, hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Wow the 18z is a crushing hit here. Hope it doesn't go any farther south. Still lots of snow for all to enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z GFS is a perfectly viable option...a warning snowstorm but not the obscenity that the 12z Euro was and to lesser extent the 12z GFS was. Keep all options on the table as of now. Plenty of reason to be optimistic, but keep in mind that the 2-3 feet of snow scenario is unlikely at this point. You don't hug extreme solutions until there is a good reason to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Walt Drag commented once to me that the 18z run is like a lower resolution ensemble member; not sure if that is still true - it was like 6 years ago. Just fyi - It is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 OK, I get it. Always a question I wanted to ask, and the vodka primed me. Thank you gentlemen. Thank you. Already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Walt Drag commented once to me that the 18z run is like a lower resolution ensemble member; not sure if that is still true - it was like 6 years ago. Just fyi - Things change over 6 years, the off-hour runs are not trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well on the plus side....isn't this where you want GFS 72 hours away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z looks nice...I'd hit the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Warm too. yeah that's part of the equation that the phasing fixes (obviously you know). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Things change over 6 years, the off-hour runs are not trash. Not so much inside 36-48 hours but beyond that I find they tend to still be pretty bad. The 18Z GFS has the worst verification of the 4 runs over the last several years from what I know with the 06z run right behind it. This run trended towards the euro losing the primary a bit earlier but it seems to have a convective feedback aura to me off the NC/VA coast which is F'ng up the comma head up the coast from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z GFS is a perfectly viable option...a warning snowstorm but not the obscenity that the 12z Euro was and to lesser extent the 12z GFS was. Keep all options on the table as of now. Plenty of reason to be optimistic, but keep in mind that the 2-3 feet of snow scenario is unlikely at this point. You don't hug extreme solutions until there is a good reason to. Yeah that's still a warning snow for all of New England. Weenie big snow sin the Berkshires, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It is not. Eastpointe, MI - where is that about. I am from Kalamazoo. Well, originally... at this point I have lived in New England more than half my time, but I lived there for 16 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well on the plus side....isn't this where you want GFS 72 hours away? Yes; with a good 36 hours of wiggle room, this is an okay place to be. Of course, if it wiggles away, not so good. But with this, there's room for something closer that doesn't wash us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well on the plus side....isn't this where you want GFS 72 hours away?The lack of STJ this winter has clouded the norm. Bring back the rule book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well on the plus side....isn't this where you want GFS 72 hours away? Probably, If had not already been out there, Came back, And went back out again, But the weaker Northern s/w was the key, We need that to stay amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Eastpointe, MI - where is that about. I am from Kalamazoo. Well, originally... at this point I have lived in New England more than half my time, but I lived there for 16 years. SEMI, NE suburb of Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You can see the differences at hr 72 vs 78 on 12z. Flow out in the nrn Plains as flatter and nrn s/w cannot dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The lack of STJ this winter has clouded the norm. Bring back the rule book. Tip was writing for days about how this is the lead time when the models all the sudden speed things up and the flow gets too fast for storms to go bonkers...wonder if we start to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Personally think you have to treat the 18z run as just another piece of guidance to think about/factor in etc. don't just "toss" but dont dry hump either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Personally think you have to treat the 18z run as just another piece of guidance to think about/factor in etc. don't just "toss" but dont dry hump either It's only a dry hump if the QPF is paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Not so much inside 36-48 hours but beyond that I find they tend to still be pretty bad. The 18Z GFS has the worst verification of the 4 runs over the last several years from what I know with the 06z run right behind it. This run trended towards the euro losing the primary a bit earlier but it seems to have a convective feedback aura to me off the NC/VA coast which is F'ng up the comma head up the coast from there. I believe that 18z for instance is run by taking the 12z GFS forecast valid at 18z and initiating the model off that. This is the same way that the 12z is initialized as well (using 06z forecast), only the 12z (likewise 00z) benefits from the roab network providing the correction to reality. Not surprising that 06z/18z verify worse on average, because they don't have the upper air correction. And as always, one model run shouldn't change your forecast that dramatically in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Personally think you have to treat the 18z run as just another piece of guidance to think about/factor in etc. don't just "toss" but dont dry hump either Rollo = hump Kevin = toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Personally think you have to treat the 18z run as just another piece of guidance to think about/factor in etc. don't just "toss" but] dont dry hump eitheryep seems WSW looking much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 The precip field was pretty funky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Nogaps a hit still but not as amped. Would be a nice solution actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Look at how one off hour model run had created all sorts of confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 well lots of time to fill before 0Z runs, going for a run.. dinner.. see you in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Look at how one off hour model run had created all sorts of confusion. Do you expect it to shift NW in 6 hours? (serious question) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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