weatherMA Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I know you like to look at MEX numbers...they are pretty insane. Double 8's up here Fri/Sat. You don't want this 100 miles west. The Dryslot as is approaches the Cape. BTW, euro ensembles beefed up precip probs for greater than half inch in six hours in the eastern half of SNE. I know Brian have the numbers of actual QPF. Probably makes more sense for now. Yes I do a good summary from BOX. Definitely deformation potential so don't take QPF verbatim in far western and northern areas. Yeah, for the EURO up here I'd say this: It had 1.5 qpf so that could be 20" even up here with banding/ratios. Although the gfs only had like .8 and I know Plymouth State isn't in the best location. For now, I'd say 6+ likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 With the luck C NH has had this winter the CCB will rip right up to near ASH and the mid level deformation band will rot across N NH/VT while I enjoy Tip's usual mesosubsidence sandwich. One thing I realized is that center harbor (not where you are though) can be a pit if the winds are off the Ossipees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 With the luck C NH has had this winter the CCB will rip right up to near ASH and the mid level deformation band will rot across N NH/VT while I enjoy Tip's usual mesosubsidence sandwich. MUAH ha hahahahahhahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I like 6-12 to start for Eastern Ct, if it is a bust from that then oh well; if it is close to models I could see 12-18 inches. Will be fun to watch the modelgasm over the next three days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The euro and gfs were great even for you. Yeah but I'd rather it go west from here other than east, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can someone explain to me why models are not run more often now? I mean, why isn't a model run every 3 hours? Or every 30 seconds? Are we stuck in tradition, or is there a reason (balloons, planes, satellite orbits) that we only have these runs when they are? I suspect it is because there are things like balloons and planes, and if so, is this correct? We have the RAP for that in the near term. I don't think it's time, power, cost, etc effective to produce more than 4 runs per day beyond 24hrs. Balloons are only launched twice per day too, although upper level satellite data is pretty good nowadays.The 12z Euro doesn't even start coming out until about 18z anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Oh man...I can't believe the 18z GFS. f! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NAM doesn't have QPF into WNE until 0-3z Fri.Brian throw us some Ens numbers for SNE please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Oh man...I can't believe the 18z GFS. f! it's out to 24hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 We have the RAP for that in the near term. I don't think it's time, power, cost, etc effective to produce more than 4 runs per day beyond 24hrs. Balloons are only launched twice per day too, although upper level satellite data is pretty good nowadays. The 12z Euro doesn't even start coming out until about 18z anyways. And parts for the Atari 800XL are hard to find anymore for the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Brian throw us some Ens numbers for SNE pleaseLook back a page or 2. It's basically a complete 1"+ for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah but I'd rather it go west from here other than east, lol We've been phucked since October 2011. Be kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 all additional model runs would do is give forecasters more reasons to doubt themselves and to flip flop more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Warning criteria snowfall could definitely be reached over all of the region. Dynamics will certainly bring cooling to the coastline once coastal low gets going. Timing is difference in models, could have significant impacts on Friday's commutes. Also hurricane force wind gusts for SNE coastline especially Cape Cod and Nantucket are possible. 12"+ amounts could be widespread from HFD to BOS and Portland, ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 all additional model runs would do is give forecasters more reasons to doubt themselves and to flip flop more often I know lol. I think it would probably hurt not help. We have meso models run every three hours which is enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can someone explain to me why models are not run more often now? I mean, why isn't a model run every 3 hours? Or every 30 seconds? Are we stuck in tradition, or is there a reason (balloons, planes, satellite orbits) that we only have these runs when they are? I suspect it is because there are things like balloons and planes, and if so, is this correct? It really is computing resources, which is invariably tied to money. If they had more money, they could buy another computer which would allow them to do more modeling. This gets pretty in depth, but gives you an idea of how the process works right now (disclaimer: there is a lot of opinion on why the NWS and U.S. as a whole is falling behind the rest of the world). http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/01/fixing-national-weather-services.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 EC ens mean QPF... 0.25" FVE 0.50" PQI-YSC 0.75" HUL-1V4-MPV-GFL 1.00" WSS-BGR-LEW-IZG-LCI-VSF-DXR 1.50" stays about 25-50mi offshore from ME to the Cape. Northern edge didn't budge from 00z, but the heavier totals shifted NW. Brian throw us some Ens numbers for SNE please Thanks Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Somebody's chuckin a few... "BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...MIXING ISSUES COULD AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT." And NO WHERE do they talk about the MORE likely shift to the SOUTHEAST, where the Cape and Islands do better. Good Heavens!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 "BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...MIXING ISSUES COULD AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT." And NO WHERE do they talk about the MORE likely shift to the SOUTHEAST, where the Cape and Islands do better. Good Heavens!!! we don't want this to shift SE. the 12z runs were perfect. we'd rain for a bit but it would be an awesome storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 "BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...MIXING ISSUES COULD AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT." And NO WHERE do they talk about the MORE likely shift to the SOUTHEAST, where the Cape and Islands do better. Good Heavens!!! Unless you read all of it: HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL TRACK COULDSHIFT EAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SNOW THAT FARWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 FWIW, Pete is getting aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 I don't think 18z GFS is going to be as good as 12z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z gfs is going to need to do a hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 man people are ballsy for 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Uh oh 18z going SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Uh oh 18z going SE? Yeah. 72-96 been the witching hour for the models. Gfs is se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Northern stream is weaker this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 And parts for the Atari 800XL are hard to find anymore for the NAM Here's the NAM (or is this the KURO?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 We've been phucked since October 2011. Be kind. Oh I'm totally all for you guys getting nailed over nothing at all...trust me it would be fun to watch as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 man people are ballsy for 3 days out. Yeah no kidding. When the brunt of the storm is 72+ hours out wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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