Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 hours 90-102 on the euro are epic. ~cane force winds right along the shore...probably from the NH/MA border south to the islands...just incredible precip rates and new moon tides as well. woa, really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Nice for a mean of 51 members. Of course the op skews it some but I'm guessing many big hitters.I know you like to look at MEX numbers...they are pretty insane. Double 8's up here Fri/Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You don't want this 100 miles west. The Dryslot as is approaches the Cape. BTW, euro ensembles beefed up precip probs for greater than half inch in six hours in the eastern half of SNE. I know Brian have the numbers of actual QPF. Probably makes more sense for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 BOX seems bullish for far out: FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO EARLY SAT...BUT THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WE WILL SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT A LOT OF THINGS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HEADS UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OVER RUNNING OF THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL PROBABLY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED TO THE ECMWF IDEA OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS STORM THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BENCHMARK AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. THERE ALSO IS A DECENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA THAT WILL BE SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR. THIS IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS ON THE COAST WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE TWO MAIN THINGS WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED WITH AT THIS POINT: (1) THE FIRST AND PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE ANY MIXING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE HIGH AND BOMBING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE MODELS...ODDS FAVOR MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES FOR A TIME ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS. THAT IS THE SCENARIO THAT THE CURRENT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...MIXING ISSUES COULD AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT. (2) THE OTHER ISSUE IS DOES THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MAKE IT BACK ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND LIKELY STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE WE MAY SEE HEAVY SNOW AFFECT EVEN THE DISTANT INTERIOR. HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL TRACK COULD SHIFT EAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SNOW THAT FAR WEST. TO SUM UP...EVERYONE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THEIR LOCATIONS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NAM is the only guidance that doesn't trend stronger with the northern jet system. I'd say that's a good sign given the recent performance of the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I know you like to look at MEX numbers...they are pretty insane. Double 8's up here Fri/Sat. Could you explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Where's the seatbelt guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You don't want this 100 miles west. The Dryslot as is approaches the Cape. BTW, euro ensembles beefed up precip probs for greater than half inch in six hours in the eastern half of SNE. I know Brian have the numbers of actual QPF. Probably makes more sense for now. 84-90hr on the mean has a weenie bullseye of 0.50" over Marshfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I know you like to look at MEX numbers...they are pretty insane. Double 8's up here Fri/Sat. Yeah I only earned a 4 and an 8 but rationalizing 5 +12=17...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Where's the seatbelt guy?Thrown out of his windshield when he saw the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Thrown out of his windshield when he saw the Euro. LOL. He's the bellwether, that dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'd say that's a good sign given the recent performance of the NAM... Drink till the NAM's pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 BOX seems bullish for far out: FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO EARLY SAT...BUT THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WE WILL SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT A LOT OF THINGS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HEADS UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OVER RUNNING OF THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL PROBABLY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED TO THE ECMWF IDEA OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS STORM THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BENCHMARK AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. THERE ALSO IS A DECENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA THAT WILL BE SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR. THIS IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS ON THE COAST WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE TWO MAIN THINGS WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED WITH AT THIS POINT: (1) THE FIRST AND PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE ANY MIXING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE HIGH AND BOMBING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE MODELS...ODDS FAVOR MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES FOR A TIME ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS. THAT IS THE SCENARIO THAT THE CURRENT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...MIXING ISSUES COULD AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT. (2) THE OTHER ISSUE IS DOES THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MAKE IT BACK ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND LIKELY STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE WE MAY SEE HEAVY SNOW AFFECT EVEN THE DISTANT INTERIOR. HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL TRACK COULD SHIFT EAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SNOW THAT FAR WEST. TO SUM UP...EVERYONE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THEIR LOCATIONS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. Somebody's chuckin a few... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That's a good summary from BOX. Definitely deformation potential so don't take QPF verbatim in far western and northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NAM is like on another planet vs the other models but even it gives a decent snow event. Can you imagine the abject misery if the NAM scored the coup ?? By the way, the D8, 12z op. Euro brings another 20" off a Miller A storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You don't want this 100 miles west. Some want it 100 miles west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Could you explain?It's just extended GFS MOS snow categories. 8 is the max which indicated 8"+ in a 24hr period. so for CON-LCI it has 8 ending Fri evening (0z) and 8 ending Sat evening (essentially Fri night). It's just statistical based off of the 12z GFS. They hold less importance than they did say 15-20 years ago imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Should be a good snow regardless for most. I'm not on the train yet for the epic event going to ride the seasonal train for another run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Should be a good snow regardless for most. I'm not on the train yet for the epic event going to ride the seasonal train for another run or two. You will not be let on....now or never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Some want it 100 miles west lol The euro and gfs were great even for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You will not be let on....now or never If it had to be now I wouldn't be on the epic train, I'll take the seasonal train with a southern streamer thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It's just extended GFS MOS snow categories. 8 is the max which indicated 8"+ in a 24hr period. so for CON-LCI it has 8 ending Fri evening (0z) and 8 ending Sat evening (essentially Fri night). It's just statistical based off of the 12z GFS. They hold less importance than they did say 15-20 years ago imo. Okay, thanks... still a nice piece of a puzzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can someone explain to me why models are not run more often now? I mean, why isn't a model run every 3 hours? Or every 30 seconds? Are we stuck in tradition, or is there a reason (balloons, planes, satellite orbits) that we only have these runs when they are? I suspect it is because there are things like balloons and planes, and if so, is this correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can you imagine the abject misery if the NAM scored the coup ?? By the way, the D8, 12z op. Euro brings another 20" off a Miller A storm: Yeah, someone (Happy Valley - Chris) pointed that out before, maybe we have been good weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The euro and gfs were great even for you.With the luck C NH has had this winter the CCB will rip right up to near ASH and the mid level deformation band will rot across N NH/VT while I enjoy Tip's usual mesosubsidence sandwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can someone explain to me why models are not run more often now? I mean, why isn't a model run every 3 hours? Or every 30 seconds? Are we stuck in tradition, or is there a reason (balloons, planes, satellite orbits) that we only have these runs when they are? I suspect it is because there are things like balloons and planes, and if so, is this correct? Money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can someone explain to me why models are not run more often now? I mean, why isn't a model run every 3 hours? Or every 30 seconds? Are we stuck in tradition, or is there a reason (balloons, planes, satellite orbits) that we only have these runs when they are? I suspect it is because there are things like balloons and planes, and if so, is this correct? Where to start.... money, bandwidth, computing power, time for computing billions of equations...you name it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can someone explain to me why models are not run more often now? I mean, why isn't a model run every 3 hours? Or every 30 seconds? Are we stuck in tradition, or is there a reason (balloons, planes, satellite orbits) that we only have these runs when they are? I suspect it is because there are things like balloons and planes, and if so, is this correct? this question made me LOL. not because it's a bad question but just the wording. there are actually models run every hour. but for the global models -i.e. the gfs/euro etc - the computing resources needed are difficult to wrap your mind around. literally billions of pieces of data are assimilated. and of course, the balloons and planes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can someone explain to me why models are not run more often now? I mean, why isn't a model run every 3 hours? Or every 30 seconds? Are we stuck in tradition, or is there a reason (balloons, planes, satellite orbits) that we only have these runs when they are? I suspect it is because there are things like balloons and planes, and if so, is this correct?Why would it be run every 30 seconds? What would be different?3 hours, or 6 for the EC, maybe I could understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Need 50% confidence in warning criteria...they'll wait until tomorrow afternoon I would think. Quite the shift to jump into after my "weekend." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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