Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How far S&E of the OP was the Euro mean SLP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Still not buying the phase. But that doesn't phase me at all...yes, pun intended. It's still a few days away but this would be a pretty decent bust if this suddenly fell apart. I really think you guys in SNE are sitting good because that'd still be an epic fail at 72 hours lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I think NAM is trying in its own cuite way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Just wanted to drop in and say that if I had to draw up the near-perfect SNE Nor'easter/blizzard solution in a synoptic meteorology class, that 12z Euro run would be very close to what I would likely come up with, that thing is a bloody monster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NAM is like on another planet vs the other models but even it gives a decent snow event. Yeah low end warning for eastern areas on the NAM even with the garbage upper air setup. We have some other processes in our favor that help squeeze out every last bit of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It's still a few days away but this would be a pretty decent bust if this suddenly fell apart. I really think you guys in SNE are sitting good because that'd still be an epic fail at 72 hours lead time. Well, it's probably prudent to keep in mind that the GFS has only shown the phase for one run so far. Not exactly "get on the bus" consistency yet by any means, at least not in my opinion. If 18z looks similar and the overnight suite keeps things steady, then perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well, it's probably prudent to keep in mind that the GFS has only shown the phase for one run so far. Not exactly "get on the bus" consistency yet by any means, at least not in my opinion. If 18z looks similar and the overnight suite keeps things steady, then perhaps. Its prudent to not live and die by every off hour GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Even the SREFs are now advertising over 1" for southern areas at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 In the end NAM gives BOS 6+....lol. That's why I'm somewhat bullish. We're getting snow phase or no but difference between ok and historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The way the models have it going right now, the northern stream system is the one in charge and the strength of it determines whether or not we get a 1-3" event or 6"+ widespread blizzard. Southern stream energy is there, but there is a rather weak disturbance there, but a lot of GOM moisture involved. This tells me this all rides on the northern stream system. NAM is the only guidance that doesn't trend stronger with the northern jet system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The way the models have it going right now, the northern stream system is the one in charge and the strength of it determines whether or not we get a 1-3" event or 6"+ widespread blizzard. Southern stream energy is there, but there is a rather weak disturbance there, but a lot of GOM moisture involved. This tells me this all rides on the northern stream system. NAM is the only guidance that doesn't trend stronger with the northern jet system.What does any of that even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Even the SREFs are now advertising over 1" for southern areas at this time frame. With the event still in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Get excited Heckuva birthday gift Steve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 EC ens mean QPF... 0.25" FVE 0.50" PQI-YSC 0.75" HUL-1V4-MPV-GFL 1.00" WSS-BGR-LEW-IZG-LCI-VSF-DXR 1.50" stays about 25-50mi offshore from ME to the Cape. Northern edge didn't budge from 00z, but the heavier totals shifted NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It's still a few days away but this would be a pretty decent bust if this suddenly fell apart. I really think you guys in SNE are sitting good because that'd still be an epic fail at 72 hours lead time. Yeah, even if it fails so badly that no one gets even 6-8 inches, we can at least talk about how a computer model- i.e. ones and zeros jumping around and copulating- lead to a mass suicide. That alone makes it worth sticking around until the next run, like one of those silly Netflix shows my wife is addicted to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Its prudent to not live and die by every off hour GFS run now that the GFS has the system, i think it'll be just as valuable a tool if you cover for its typical problems handling this kind of development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 EC ens mean QPF... 0.25" FVE 0.50" PQI-YSC 0.75" HUL-1V4-MPV-GFL 1.00" WSS-BGR-LEW-IZG-LCI-VSF-DXR 1.50" stays about 25-50mi offshore from ME to the Cape. Northern edge didn't budge from 00z, but the heavier totals shifted NW. Nice for a mean of 51 members. Of course the op skews it some but I'm guessing many big hitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Nice for a mean of 51 members. Of course the op skews it some but I'm guessing many big hitters. Its very impressive for being about 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 CTBlizz major snowstorm is coming if models get stronger and dig deeper with the northern stream system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 unbelievable... day-job stopping solution here ripped out of Kocin's book... 973 near or slightly southeast of BM: Euro_02_05_13_12z_USA_PRMSL_msl_096.gif It could be worse... bump that solution 100 miles west; although that might cause a CF intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Its prudent to not live and die by every off hour GFS run ... yes, which is exactly why I just said I'd like to see 18z and the overnight suite of runs show consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 CTBlizz major snowstorm is coming if models get stronger and dig deeper with the northern stream system. The models already have...NAM is the only one that is not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 you realize that this is still 3+ days away, don't you? We aren't 36 hours out. There is still plenty of time for this to wiggle around and produce much less snow. The 12z Euro is extreme and shouldn't be considered the baseline right now for where we start when/if there are cut backs. I don't know ... i got a bad feeling about this. The Euro sniffed this out days ago and never gave in. oh, it tried to weaken it some, but the impact stayed on the N side of median through all runs, and now it comes in at 84 hours which is now inside it's wheel-house with this solution?! As bad as 3 inch of liq equiv could be, if that low position is another 50 miles west you bring 50 mph wind gust pretty damn far inland as well. It's a pure solution, though, agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I could see them issuing watches with the 4am package...NAM has the snow starting at 21z Thursday so we're really only like 48-54 hours away if the NAM is right. Although the GFS waited until like 6z Friday so some timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I could see them issuing watches with the 4am package...NAM has the snow starting at 21z Thursday so we're really only like 48-54 hours away if the NAM is right. Although the GFS waited until like 6z Friday so some timing differences. Nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I could see them issuing watches with the 4am package...NAM has the snow starting at 21z Thursday so we're really only like 48-54 hours away if the NAM is right. Although the GFS waited until like 6z Friday so some timing differences.NAM doesn't have QPF into WNE until 0-3z Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NAM doesn't have QPF into WNE until 0-3z Fri. Okay yeah you're right. Still, we're only 60 hours away from the start even in the slower solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Okay yeah you're right. Still, we're only 60 hours away from the start even in the slower solutions. Need 50% confidence in warning criteria...they'll wait until tomorrow afternoon I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 hours 90-102 on the euro are epic. ~cane force winds right along the shore...probably from the NH/MA border south to the islands...just incredible precip rates and new moon tides as well. woa, really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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