Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NCEP seems to put it about an equal chance...GGEM/UK vs the GFS/Euro THE SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE (INITIALLY OVER THE PACIFIC) ISTHE MORE IMPORTANT OF THE TWO. THE NAM DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE ISVERY POOR...AS IT IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE THANTHE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AS THE WAVE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ONWEDNESDAY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE IMPORTANCE OFTHIS WAVE LIES IN ITS POTENTIAL PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY OFFTHE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME THE NAM BECOMESA SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER AS IT ONLY DEPICTS A VERY WEAK UPPER-LEVELWAVE AND A SURFACE LOW THAT IS SEVERELY SUPPRESSED RELATIVE TO ALLOTHER GUIDANCE. THE GFS SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE ECMWF WITH THISENERGY. AS A RESULT...THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL SPIN UP A SURFACELOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE UKMET AND CMC ARE SOMEWHATLESS INTENSE WITH THE NRN STREAM ENERGY...WHICH RESULTS IN A LATERAND SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THECONSISTENCY OF THE 12Z ECMWF WITH MAINTAINING AN EARLIERPHASING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A STRONGER SURFACE LOW CLOSER TOTHE COAST...THIS SOLUTION SEEMS TO CARRY ABOUT EQUAL POSSIBILITYAS THE WEAKER UKMET/CMC SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT...WILL RECOMMEND ABLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well then concerns are warranted, we have less wiggle room than SNE if this tries to slip E. And we'll have the storm surrounded at GYX. Hopefully no yo-yo forecasts from Ekster and I. lol, Being out on the fringe has its faults, That is mine as well, Getting far enough north before the ENE shift, That high over Quebec, Is rather stout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 FWIW...not much...but SREFS amping up the snow progs in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 would you be comfortable with 4-7" or just 4-6"? 4-7" is like a 3-inch window there so maybe not exact enough, right? but then, 6" is 2" more than 4"...that's 50% more plowable snow. Not cool. Keep this stuff out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Not cool. Keep this stuff out of here. - he is just messing with you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NCEP seems to put it about an equal chance...GGEM/UK vs the GFS/Euro THE SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE (INITIALLY OVER THE PACIFIC) IS THE MORE IMPORTANT OF THE TWO. THE NAM DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE IS VERY POOR...AS IT IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AS THE WAVE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS WAVE LIES IN ITS POTENTIAL PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME THE NAM BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER AS IT ONLY DEPICTS A VERY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND A SURFACE LOW THAT IS SEVERELY SUPPRESSED RELATIVE TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE GFS SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE ECMWF WITH THIS ENERGY. AS A RESULT...THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE UKMET AND CMC ARE SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE WITH THE NRN STREAM ENERGY...WHICH RESULTS IN A LATER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE 12Z ECMWF WITH MAINTAINING AN EARLIER PHASING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A STRONGER SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST...THIS SOLUTION SEEMS TO CARRY ABOUT EQUAL POSSIBILITY AS THE WEAKER UKMET/CMC SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT...WILL RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. A blend would be plenty nice for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 From Noyes: Quite the contrast, EURO has me in 6-12" and GFS 1-3" Hoping for the former, and although it sounds weenieish I'm inclined to think the EURO might be closer to reality, although with less QPF in the 3"+ zone. This is simply because the EURO has been consistent for 6 runs now, and in a situation like this when it holds something for that long it's pretty rare for it to bust. Would expect the GFS to go colder in the next few runs, but again the EURO could be out to lunch. As weenieish as it sounds, I think the EURO has the right idea here. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Always a threat with these amped up solutions. Especially before the mid-levels close off S of us. Honestly, I would not even worry about that given the scenario we're looking at. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 he probably mis-quoted him too...just knowing how kevin translates things.He posted on FB it may be time to sing Jump around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I think Feb 2006 is the last storm where BOS got over a foot of snow in the month of February. December and January have been the prolific months recently, but perhaps this winter will give us a total reversal of that trend for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Its going to be very difficult for that in this flow. I'd worry more about an escape east. I certainly agree with this post. Now that the models are coming into agreement about the likely southern stream interaction, its really a case of how strong will the 500 hPa low near Greenland be when the phasing occurs. There isn't much room for this system to move northward with a strong 500 hPa low in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Congrats guys. This is the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Congrats guys. This is the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Congrats guys. This is the big one. No. This is Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 We are sitting real good...even if it comes more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 12z GFS is plenty cold for my area. At least somewhat unusual for a larger event, which typically seem to have warmer air at some level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The euro ensembles looked good for 84 hrs. Naturally se of the op, but solid for SNE and parts of CNE. This storm shows signs of a deformation band outside of the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Congrats guys. This is the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Nam looks better than the last run so far I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro 10 meter sustained winds via AccuWx PPV gets the Outer Cape into 65 knot winds. I see 36.5ºF as the warmest 2 meter temp at P-Town on the AccuWx Euro (6 hour text data) but as hard as the snow should be coming down, that might still be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'm excited to see who gets eaten if this crumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This looks great for all. Even me but I'm gonna hold off on the back slapping and high five'ng. Nothing has happened yet. Lots of time left. Kinda has that jan 2005 track look to it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 would you be comfortable with 4-7" or just 4-6"? 4-7" is like a 3-inch window there so maybe not exact enough, right? but then, 6" is 2" more than 4"...that's 50% more plowable snow. I'm happy with 6"+ for a change.. I'm not going crazy with 2 foot calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 We are sitting real good...even if it comes more NW. we'll see. I hope it cuts into SE MA and taints us, but that's probably the least likely scenario. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'm excited to see who gets eaten if this crumbles. I think people are pretty well keeping it in check. The fact that some models are putting out a historic blizzard...people are being reasonable. NAM still blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Nam looks better than the last run so far I think... Still not buying the phase. But that doesn't phase me at all...yes, pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well guidance isn't backing off yet. As expected NAM is actually coming in a bit colder which speaks to the excellent and fresh cold air source in the HP to our north. 0Z holds, i think it's game on. I won't stay up for the Euro but it's tempting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Nam looks better than the last run so far I think... Dumpster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NAM is like on another planet vs the other models but even it gives a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well guidance isn't backing off yet. As expected NAM is actually coming in a bit colder which speaks to the excellent and fresh cold air source in the HP to our north. 0Z holds, i think it's game on. I won't stay up for the Euro but it's tempting.... Save that for Thursday night...I might stay up then as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.